Dec. 9-12, 2023 | Potential Winter Storm

[CrazyINwx]

Beat me to it.
Here's a comparison of all three overnights.

[StormfanaticInd]

Think this is starting to become more of a severe weather threat honestly. Would make sense given we are currently in phase 4 of mjo which is a warm phase

Edited December 5, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[NWOhioChaser]

5 hours ago, Grace said:

GEFS moves west as well

 

UKMET is an upper mw cutter

What a shocker.

[Hiramite]

The AI models starting to move west as well.

Quote

 

 

[SOMOSnow]

Shocked in a bad way by 0z Euro after 0z night before and 12z yesterday. Wouldn't be surprised to see it flip back. Still a long way out.  Canadian came way SE. ICON is SE. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm expecting 🌪️ 🌪 🌩 ⚡️ 😁

 

[junior]

We need a good cutter to get it out the way. 

[Cary67]

This is a thread the needle situation that probably disappoints  even for areas that are in the ribbon of snow. Poor antecedent airmass along with lots of pieces that all need to align right. Even if this all worked out places like Chicago with a NE wind off the still warm lake would probably have precip issues.

[Harberr62]

This will be a good severe weather maker. 

[NWOhioChaser]

1 hour ago, Harberr62 said:

This will be a good severe weather maker. 

I agree. I’m more concerned with the widespread 40-50 mph gusts that will associated with the storm. 

[snowlover2]

12z GFS looking like the 0z Euro.

[snowlover2]

12z GGEM continues with a more SE track.

[snowlover2]

[Jaf316]

17 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GGEM continues with a more SE track.

It'll  probably fall in line over the next couple of runs...

[SOMOSnow]

11 minutes ago, Jaf316 said:

It'll  probably fall in line over the next couple of runs...

Fall in line with which camp, though? Most  models are more like the Canadian now than the GFS. 

[MidMichiganWx]

I'm coming out from the shadows but I already know watching this one will be a waste of time lol

[Jaf316]

19 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Fall in line with which camp, though? Most  models are more like the Canadian now than the GFS. 

The camp that gives central Ohio zero snow...

[SOMOSnow]

Was looking forward to seeing the UKMET but it hasn't loaded yet 

[SOMOSnow]

Will the 12z Euro bring the heavy snow back? Needs to dig more and bring more cold. 

[RobB]

12 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Was looking forward to seeing the UKMET but it hasn't loaded yet 

Here it is at hour 120:

 

[SOMOSnow]

5 minutes ago, RobB said:

Here it is at hour 120:

 

Thanks, Rob. Hope you are well, buddy. 

[SOMOSnow]

12z UKMET. Do I laugh or cry? 

[1816]

Just now, SOMOSnow said:

12z UKMET. Do I laugh or cry? 

It looks like there's a teardrop right at the top of Missouri already😢

[RobB]

5 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Thanks, Rob. Hope you are well, buddy. 

Thank you very much.  You as well!

 

Just busy bus much of the time 🙂

[Hoosier]

Bit of a captain obvious post here...

I've only taken some glances at the setup for this up to now, but one thing that stands out is that we're likely going to need a rapidly deepening system to have a chance at a respectable band of snow anywhere.  The guidance generally indicates a rapidly developing system, which is a good first step, but the details with how that goes are of great importance.