Wayuphere Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 December is here and so are the Winter Storm Watches….. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 An updated snow graphic from the NWS/B-N Office: I am ready.🤪 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 Temp has slowly dropped overnight. 33.4° DP 33°, with a decent breeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 GYX sounding from 8 am shows how razor thin temps are in the bottom mile of atmosphere is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Low was 33 and current temp is 33 at 8:30 am. It looks like BTV raised the snow amounts slightly in some valley locations. Quote 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 BTV's forecast discussion brings in the possibility for ice and sleet for some areas. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 545 AM EST Sunday...No major changes to the forecast at present. Freezing fog and freezing drizzle is now being observed. Plattsburgh has even picked up 0.03" of ice on its sensor as batch of spotty showers make their way up the Champlain Valley. So the SPS is in good shape. Everything seems on track at the moment. Previous discussion below... Two different weather hazards are expected today into tonight. Chronologically, the first is the freezing fog or freezing drizzle potential that still remains along the international border. An SPS has been issued through 14z to cover the potential. Pavement temps are right around 31 to 33 degrees. Most locations will likely be too warm, but still, exercise caution on bridges and overpasses being careful not to take corners too fast. The second hazard is the upcoming heavy, wet snow potential this afternoon into Monday morning. Several changes have taken place. One change is the addition of sleet and freezing rain into the forecast, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley. For that, northern St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties have been added into the Winter Weather Advisory for that potential. The next change is cutting headline back to 15z (10 AM) Monday. Examining the snowfall forecast for Monday, additional accumulations were only an inch, and with temperatures warming above freezing, it was difficult to consider potential impacts lasting much longer than late Monday morning. Finally, the last change is that Essex and Orleans of Vermont and western Clinton County of New York have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. These areas still only come close to reaching warning criteria, but based on potential impacts of heavy, wet snow and the higher end snowfall potential in these areas, decided to make that switch. For travel, expect the most difficult travel time this evening. Heavy snow could begin falling as early as 6 PM tonight through about 6 AM tomorrow. For utilities, power outage potential will be highest in eastern Vermont, and parts of the northeastern slopes of the Adirondacks Sunday night into Monday. This forecast remains challenging. There has been a slight southward shift in model guidance, lending the idea of a bit better snow potential. However, high resolution guidance also indicates higher sleet potential along the periphery of the rain snow line as well. Two waves of precipitation are on the table. There`s a wave of 700- 500hPa FGEN that will lift north as a coastal low begins to develop. This will begin spreading light to moderate precipitation across the area. Warm temperatures and moderate rates will initially limit snow to higher elevations. As low pressure intensifies offshore, it will begin to drive cool easterly winds across eastern Vermont, making them likely the first to see precipitation transition to snow. By mid afternoon, low pressure will intensify over Lake Ontario while a potent 190kt 250hPa jet and vigorous upper shortwave lift into the region. Lapse rates above 500hPa range from 7 to 9 C while a strong band of 850-700hPa FGEN moves overhead. This will likely drive some intense precipitation rates for a few hours between about 6 PM and 2 AM before gradually tapering to moderate rates along the international border as mid-level deformation sets up with vertically stacked low pressure overhead. This should be enough to drive a quick change over to snow in the lower valleys, and mountain areas are likely to see snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. A dry slot remains possible, but the southward shift means it could just graze our southern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 It is highly unlikely that I will see any snow/mixed precipitation with this system. From the NWS/B-N Office: Spoiler Despite surface low tracking south of New England and 1025+ mb high over Quebec, the lack of antecedent cold air across New England combined with mid level low tracking NW of the region, will support ptype to be all rain. There is a low probability (10-20%) that snow and/or sleet may briefly mix with the rain across the high terrain of northwest MA per model soundings. However, this will be very short lived if it even occurs, therefore little if any impact especially with surface temps at or above freezing in the high terrain. And a revised snow graphic 😭: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 11/26/2023 at 2:46 PM, MaineJay said: What the heck. Might as well have something to talk about. East Asia shows a nice little trof, with maybe some negative tilt. 12z GEFS. 0z EPS GFS ECMWF No promises, but the models do have some potential for active weather. There's a few EPS members that are ambitious for my backyard. Looks like an argument could be made East Asia is 5 days ahead of the Eastern CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 40° and light rain in Portland, but I did see some renegade frozen mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 We have 34F with moderate rain with some flakes moving in. Radar shows snow a few miles to my east and snow resort cams in my area are showing heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Light snow/rain 34.0˚ F -- pure slop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHSparky Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 39 and raining in Nashua 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 32.7˚ F, all snow, ground turning white 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 32.5° and all snow at my house. Roads are even taking on snow in my neighborhood. If I do have to run the snowblower, it's going to suck. The ground is partially frozen at best, and it's been like a mini mud season the last couple days. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 35ºF with light rain falling ATM. 0.45" of rain measured so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted December 3, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 Down to 32° with a steady snow. Wet ground and marginal temps making for very slow accumulation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 3, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 3, 2023 7/8" flakes remain large, snow globe-esque out there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 32.5˚ F-- slush falling 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 4, 2023 Temp now 31.6°, but it's just having a hell of a time trying to pile up. It's only like 1.1" with steady, but light snow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Rain just turned to snow here at 10 pm. Temp at 33. Ski resorts up this way look like they will be posting big numbers in tomorrow's snow reports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 2.0” so far which came from two separate 1.0” events today. Radar shows the main wave creeping in. Expecting 8-10” of tree bending cement. 31.7°F As MaineJay mentioned, ground is quite soft in places so next springs grass sod piles will appear once plowed…😁 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted December 4, 2023 29.3° with about 4 inches. Sticky, but not terrible. I did basically regrade the driveway as I was snowblowing... The 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 The march of winter begins with the first inch of snow. This is that inch. 31.5˚ F, snowing lightly. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 We ended up with only a 1/2" of snow here but did pick up 0.99" of rain. Local ski resorts are reporting 7"-10" of new snow and it is still snowing in the mountains with chances of snow until tomorrow morning. Quote ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) NEW YORK ...Clinton County... Dannemora 8.8 605 AM 12/04 1,200' elevation 2 WNW Cadyville 8.3 848 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet Saranac 6.8 850 AM 12/04 Public West Chazy 5.5 615 AM 12/04 Public Schuyler Falls 5.5 851 AM 12/04 Public Altona 5.0 430 AM 12/04 Public Ellenburg 4.3 847 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 2 WNW Chazy 2.4 847 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet ...Essex County... 2 W Wilmington 3.9 849 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 5 NNE Olmstedville 3.6 800 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 4 NNE North Hudson 2.8 848 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet Moriah 0.5 635 AM 12/04 400' elevation 2 N Ticonderoga 0.4 849 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet Lake Placid 0.3 743 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer ...Franklin County... Rainbow Lake 2.0 815 AM 12/04 Public 1 W Malone 1.5 700 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer 2 W Malone 1.2 848 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 1 S Gabriels 0.4 848 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 1 E Tupper Lake 0.4 849 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 6 N Saranac Lake 0.4 520 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...St. Lawrence County... Massena 3.1 715 AM 12/04 Public 3 SW Louisville 2.8 848 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet 1 NE Turnbull Corner 2.5 700 AM 12/04 Trained Spotter WNW Heuvelton 1.7 715 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Edwards 0.4 847 AM 12/04 NYS Mesonet VERMONT ...Addison County... Bristol 0.4 645 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer ...Caledonia County... 3 NNE Danville 7.9 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS North Kirby 4.8 759 AM 12/04 Public 2 WNW Wells River 4.3 701 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 SW Sutton 3.6 700 PM 12/03 Co-Op Observer 4 W Barnet 3.5 800 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS N St. Johnsbury 2.3 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Chittenden County... WSW Williston 1.0 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 3 SSW Williston 1.0 600 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 SW Hinesburg 0.5 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 5 NNE Underhill 0.5 650 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 3 SSW South Burlingt 0.5 730 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Hinesburg 0.5 854 AM 12/04 Public 4 NNE Underhill 0.2 730 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Essex County... 4 WNW Maidstone 9.2 828 AM 12/04 Public Lunenburg 7.0 456 AM 12/04 Public 2 NNW Lunenburg 6.0 515 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Island Pond 3.5 500 AM 12/04 Public ...Franklin County... 4 ESE Montgomery 1.0 600 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 3 N Enosburg Falls 0.2 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Lamoille County... 2 WSW Wolcott 10.0 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Eden 9.0 747 AM 12/04 Trained Spotter Morristown 8.5 911 AM 12/04 1,140' elevation 2 N Johnson 6.5 715 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer Johnson 6.5 650 AM 12/04 928' elevation Morrisville 3.0 731 AM 12/04 Public SW Stowe 2.6 730 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 3 N Smugglers Notch 2.1 730 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer ...Orange County... 3 SW Braintree 7.7 710 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Williamstown 7.0 803 AM 12/04 Public Tunbridge 5.9 716 AM 12/04 Public West Newbury 5.5 802 AM 12/04 Public 2 NNW Bradford 2.5 500 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE West Fairlee 2.4 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Orleans County... 4 NNE Greensboro 12.3 730 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Albany 9.8 600 AM 12/04 1,505' elevation 7 SE Morgan 8.0 630 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Westfield 6.5 630 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 W Derby Line 6.0 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Craftsbury Common 5.4 645 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Newport Center 5.0 547 AM 12/04 Public Orleans 4.0 618 AM 12/04 810' elevation ...Rutland County... 1 W Shrewsbury 1.8 600 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Washington County... Northfield 10.5 721 AM 12/04 1,400' elevation 3 NNW Woodbury 9.9 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Cabot 9.5 730 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 1 W East Cabot 9.0 719 AM 12/04 1,900' elevation 3 E Warren 7.0 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 1 NW Calais 6.5 833 AM 12/04 Trained Spotter 1 SW East Barre 6.2 803 AM 12/04 NWS Employee 1 S Northfield 5.7 723 AM 12/04 Public 2 NNE Waterbury Cent 5.0 711 AM 12/04 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Plainfield 4.6 700 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer Duxbury 3.8 550 AM 12/04 1,000' elevation Marshfield 3.0 929 PM 12/03 1600' elevation 1 ESE Montpelier 3.0 851 AM 12/04 Public 2 N Moretown 3.0 800 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 2 N Northfield 2.2 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Waterbury 1.0 600 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS ...Windsor County... 2 NE Rochester 8.5 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS Norwich 7.3 530 AM 12/04 1,300' elevation Bethel 7.0 827 AM 12/04 1,900' elevation Rochester 6.0 715 AM 12/04 Public 3 S Ludlow 5.5 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS South Royalton 4.8 700 AM 12/04 900' elevation 1 E Woodstock 2.5 800 AM 12/04 Co-Op Observer NE Rochester 0.8 700 AM 12/04 CoCoRaHS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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