Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MaineJay said: With Pacific air doing it's thing, the strung out nature along a boundary in northern NY/NE, light occasional over running events seem to make sense. Easy for the models to spin up the bigger storms in the long range, but they seem to be either less deep, less phased, or both as they come closer to "reality". So again, late blooming storms over the Atlantic also make sense. Could always use more snow at the ski areas, but I think they will take this type of start to the season. It's been plenty cold for making snow, and we've avoided any destructive rain in the mountains. At least it's not a parade of cutters. 🤣 Lol don't even put that out there, yea with the excessive rains many up north experienced this summer Im sure there is plenty of water to be used. Im not expecting a crazy surge of warmth with this as of now but temps down here being 5-10 degrees above average at times is not out of the question (crazy how I say that isn't excessive lol). It may be a little harder up your way to get as warm temp wise since the -NAO seems to be a bit displaced north giving you more of our weather situation in a more classic -NAO block. Maybe once the block decays you guys get in on the warmer than average temps, but with an average probably below freezing it doesn't mean too much up there. I will say it is nice to not see storms diving into southern California thus far and the cold seems to be a bit more prevalent as well. Im sure we will have at least one storm that connects everything but man could you imagine if we had a repeat of last year in a different oceanic mode. Edited November 29, 2023 by so_whats_happening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 I like that fantasy storm on 12/12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) The 6th looks like a 'lii clippah for Western PA folks. Followed by some cold lake effect snow. And the fantasy snow on the 12th is gone LOL Edited November 29, 2023 by bigben89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: but man could you imagine if we had a repeat of last year in a different oceanic mode. It wouldn’t be fun that’s for sure! We memed that SE ridge enough last year. Whats your take on those hot SST off the mid Atlantic? Will that steer storms away, pushing towards cutters/apps riders? Edited November 29, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 12z GFS and CMC. Make your forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 29, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 12z GFS and CMC. Make your forecasts. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 29, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, TLChip said: It wouldn’t be fun that’s for sure! We memed that SE ridge enough last year. Whats your take on those hot SST off the mid Atlantic? Will that steer storms away, pushing towards cutters/apps riders? weird patchy anomalous SSTs...I mean, if it was a big pool of warmer water, it could be a moisture source for storms, but the warm with cold patches....not sure. With a warm pool...cold air in the interior could create a thermogradient that would help spawn coastal storms... Messy h5....see if it can clean itself up. Edited November 29, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: weird patchy anomalous SSTs...I mean, if it was a big pool of warmer water, it could be a moisture source for storms, but the warm with cold patches....not sure. With a warm pool...cold air in the interior could create a thermogradient that would help spawn coastal storms... Messy h5....see if it can clean itself up. Not bad for SNE .. so close for areas just south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Still, the timing and evolution is EVERYWHERE. Go ahead and make your bets. 😕 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 37 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Still, the timing and evolution is EVERYWHERE. Go ahead and make your bets. 😕 The southern slider, surprise everyone. This was 2020…. Might have been a slizzard iirc. Edited November 29, 2023 by TLChip 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 1 hour ago, TLChip said: The southern slider, surprise everyone. This was 2020…. Might have been a slizzard iirc. Epic and historic here. Will never forget. 🙂 Also, that bullseye was modelled in the Poconos/Allentown region for multiple suites prior to 24 hours. What a nice surprise for Binghamton! 40" IIRC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) 50 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Epic and historic here. Will never forget. 🙂 Also, that bullseye was modelled in the Poconos/Allentown region for multiple suites prior to 24 hours. What a nice surprise for Binghamton! 40" IIRC I was right in the middle of the dark red in Tioga County, PA. We had just moved in a few months prior and didn't have our snow removal equipment yet. Whoops. Edited November 29, 2023 by tcari394 Adding some additional pictures 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Excellent pictures! This is one of my faves haha 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 48 hour (9 runs) trend for GFS. I think we're almost there with a solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 29, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 29, 2023 I just need either of these to be right. Two different scenarios. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 30, 2023 6 hours ago, TLChip said: It wouldn’t be fun that’s for sure! We memed that SE ridge enough last year. Whats your take on those hot SST off the mid Atlantic? Will that steer storms away, pushing towards cutters/apps riders? Those hot ribbons are just eddies overall we are doing much much better than last year at this time. We saw the rather drastic change over the summer of less ridging in the east and more tropical activity between the US and Bermuda that helped churn the waters up. Im sure we will still have bouts where the ridge pops up but shouldn't be anything too crazy. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 0z Euro Edited November 30, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 I'm back on the 11th - 12th fantasy train again LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 0z Euro Almost forgot… was that an Alberta clipper???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 30, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, tcari394 said: I was right in the middle of the dark red in Tioga County, PA. We had just moved in a few months prior and didn't have our snow removal equipment yet. Whoops. Had just moved to new house two weeks prior and also was completely unprepared...but even my plow guys took hours to get out his driveway...39"...biggest storm I've ever experienced outside of Utah. My daughter testing the goods.... IMG_5270.mov What did suck about that storm....here was that same view as in the video two weeks later...New Year's Eve... Edited November 30, 2023 by telejunkie 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 42 minutes ago, TLChip said: Almost forgot… was that an Alberta clipper???? Feels like it has been years since a clipper has made an appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 46 minutes ago, TLChip said: Almost forgot… was that an Alberta clipper???? Indeed! A relic from a bygone era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Glad to be back tracking! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Indeed! A relic from a bygone era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 30, 2023 Can't unsee that ECMWF run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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