Admin MaineJay Posted November 26, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 26, 2023 What the heck. Might as well have something to talk about. East Asia shows a nice little trof, with maybe some negative tilt. 12z GEFS. 0z EPS GFS ECMWF No promises, but the models do have some potential for active weather. There's a few EPS members that are ambitious for my backyard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 26, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 26, 2023 There’s a lot to like about this timeframe. With the potential for a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA.. one would think that’s favorable for something to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, Penn State said: There’s a lot to like about this timeframe. With the potential for a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA.. one would think that’s favorable for something to happen. Let’s hope at this point… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Penn State said: There’s a lot to like about this timeframe. With the potential for a -AO, -NAO, and +PNA.. one would think that’s favorable for something to happen. With the EPO going positive, mild Pacific air might precede this event, so we'd need the PNA ridge to bubble up as fast as possible to try and tap some colder air. The Greenland ridge looks to wobble into northern Canada, kinda blocking the best avenue for cold. The set up could give us a good storm track, but with a marginal air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Closing pitcher is still sitting. Setup guy heading to the bullpen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 27, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 27, 2023 1 hour ago, bigben89 said: Let’s hope at this point… I know I feel like it’s been a slow start.. but I’m also impatient. There’s a lot of good indications, but those don’t always translate. I get a little worried when I see so many systems track to the NW. Certainly feels like rinse, wash, repeat from the last several years.. but with the El Niño, should be different eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 27, 2023 Machine learning models might be more varied ed than the NWP models. AIFS. I think this is ECMWF in house model FourCastML from NVIDIA Graph cast from Google Pangu from Huawei 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 That was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 27, 2023 GEFS have some stem winders in there. As I've mentioned, the +EPO Pacific air is probably the biggest headwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 27, 2023 (edited) ICON - probably a little to close to the coast for most situations, but upstate NY should usually be snow from this. CMC with the one two puch on the coast, first one in what is usually a good spot, second too far out. But NNE makes out. Edited November 27, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 27, 2023 (edited) 12z GFS focuses on second punch and buries N Maine. Edited November 27, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 27, 2023 12z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Looking awfully active from here to December 12-15 timeframe. Need that northern stream to play ball. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 27, 2023 Just so we can compare the Ukie, which is the most out of sync with the other 3, has the lowest height out in front. Extrapolating from this point, I think the Ukie would be considered the most desirable from a winter weather standpoint. We'll see how they stand in 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 28, 2023 EPS has about 10 maybe 15% of it's members going sub 970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 28, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 28, 2023 I’m really liking the 2009 vibes.. If this “second punch” works out on the 5th, there’s indication for something mid-December. I’m pretty sure that was December ‘09. Set-up, and then main course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 28, 2023 13 hours ago, MaineJay said: Just so we can compare the Ukie, which is the most out of sync with the other 3, has the lowest height out in front. Extrapolating from this point, I think the Ukie would be considered the most desirable from a winter weather standpoint. We'll see how they stand in 12 hours or so. Spread increased, and not by a little bit, overnight. Timing differences on some if these features is over 12 hours, maybe as much as 24 I'd say. I mean, the GFS says to pull the dates back to the 3rd even. Let's trace back the pieces of energy, but there's so many. Hard to tell what's gonna merge with what, spatiotemporal differences not withstanding. GEFS have more spread Than the EPS Quite a few snow bearing systems in the EPS for some. Hard to tell if the GFS and the CMC with their more consolidated trofs are too eager to merge some of these energies. The Ukie and EC keep more pieces discrete. Something to watch going forward, not only for this storm, but for model behaviors this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted November 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 28, 2023 CPC highlighting the chance... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 28, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 28, 2023 Hard to find much clustering in the GEFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 28, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 28, 2023 This is looking better and better.. still not there, but going in the right direction.. at least I think so! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 28, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 28, 2023 (edited) Noticeable shift to the west.. sharpening of the trough. I like it! Edited November 28, 2023 by Penn State 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 29, 2023 -NAO seems to be really far north for the mid atlantic. Looks like an interior New England storm for some accumulating snows as of now and cold rain for most of the coastal plain for 4th-5th there is some trialing energy but it seems too close to the exiting system to allow much in the way of deepening. Who knows still have a solid 3-4 days of changes but seems like a wave spacing issue right now. Would really love to time the western ridging we have had to a system but should get there soon enough this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 29, 2023 GYX Quote Afterwards, the pattern looks much different for the weekend than it was looking yesterday. High pressure behind this system looks weaker and more likely to remain farther to our north, causing the front to stall across New England, rather than clearing the region. Weak waves of low pressure then progress along this front, with one bringing the chance for scattered showers on Saturday, and another doing the same on Sunday. At the same time, the high to the north will filter in cooler air on northeasterly flow. While precipitation looks light through this timeframe, the set up overall looks favorable for some mixed precipitation. With such a notable shift from yesterday`s forecast, it`s still too early to try to pin down any kind of sleet or freezing rain areas, so this forecast will remain with rain and snow wording given the uncertainty that remains. Eyes then turn to whether a stronger coastal system develops in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. Between Friday and Tuesday, it looks like no less than five disturbances will pass either through or nearby New England. Of these, the fourth and fifth look to have the best chance to become more organized early next week. Models have actually come into worse agreement since yesterday on the progression of these systems, so at this point we`ll just have to wait until we get a little closer in time before being able to have higher confidence. Given the fairly drastic change for the weekend forecast from just 3-4 days out, it`s difficult to have much confidence in next week`s forecast at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) With a nice vort moving through we could get some upper level enhancement to take place from about WV/MD through SNE to produce some flakes im not sure much can come from it but there is always potential. Storm seems to develop too far out to sea with a ridge in the West collapsing before something gets going. This would be around the 6th time frame where the 3rd to ~5th looks to be a strung out wave and with just enough cold into New England interior could get a nice thump. Early season storm but like that it wants to try and do something around the area. Let's see what we can get when the NAO is done. Edited November 29, 2023 by so_whats_happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 29, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted November 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: With a nice vort moving through we could get some upper level enhancement to take place from about WV/MD through SNE to produce some flakes im not sure much can come from it but there is always potential. Storm seems to develop too far out to sea with a ridge in the West collapsing before something gets going. This would be the 5th-6th time frame where the 3rd-4th looks to be a strung out wave and with just enough cold into New England interior could get a nice thump. Early season storm but like that it wants to try and do something around the area. Let's see what we can get when the NAO is done. With Pacific air doing it's thing, the strung out nature along a boundary in northern NY/NE, light occasional over running events seem to make sense. Easy for the models to spin up the bigger storms in the long range, but they seem to be either less deep, less phased, or both as they come closer to "reality". So again, late blooming storms over the Atlantic also make sense. Could always use more snow at the ski areas, but I think they will take this type of start to the season. It's been plenty cold for making snow, and we've avoided any destructive rain in the mountains. At least it's not a parade of cutters. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now