Moderators StretchCT Posted November 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2023 Euro bending towards the GFS. Keeps the northern system separate, southern system further south. 12z run on top, 0z run on bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 17, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted November 17, 2023 12z GFS looks better.. some snow in Northern Virginia, Maryland, and central PA at hour 96. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Seems the 12Z GFS takes the storm OTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 This is the 6Z GFS that put down some heavy snows in the northeast. Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, TheRex said: Seems the 12Z GFS takes the storm OTS. It's figuring out that we only get storms on weekends. The holiday may have fooled it for a bit. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2023 We'll see if the Euro separates them even more. But wow this GFS trend is interesting. It's like that ridge out west came out of nowhere and bullied the trough all the way to Canada. I'm capturing the forecast from the 12z run for a 5 day challenge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Might get some Turkey snowflakes in CNJ if the GFS occurs as shown on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2023 Tuesday afternoon trend Wed afternoon trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2023 5 day challenge. Euro, GFS, CMC and UKIE Euro Spoiler GFS Spoiler CMC Spoiler Ukie (Pivotal doesn't have the precip type for UKMET) Spoiler 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 18 gfs not backing down and has another juicy one for Saturday as well. Great run. The euro has the low north of lake Michigan pump warm air into the region and erode any cold. The gfs doesn't do that and takes the low to near Buffalo and transfer to SNJ coast keeping the HV and NE of there in the cold sector. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 18, 2023 Last 6 GFS runs. Yikes. Still making wild swings So much for that polar vortex making a visit. GFS was crazy phase happy last year too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Last 6 GFS runs. Yikes. Still making wild swings So much for that polar vortex making a visit. GFS was crazy phase happy last year too. Over these past 2, 3 years I have often questioned to myself if it is even worth looking at the GFS anymore. It's rough man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Over these past 2, 3 years I have often questioned to myself if it is even worth looking at the GFS anymore. It's rough man. I generally agree. But I'd say the gfs has been superior lately to the euro. But they seem to go In cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: I generally agree. But I'd say the gfs has been superior lately to the euro. But they seem to go In cycles. At minimum it can be quite good entertainment on its bad days. 😃 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 18, 2023 Difference at D5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: At minimum it can be quite good entertainment on its bad days. 😃 Read the fine print and it says the GFS is "for comedic relief purposes only". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 12z NAM opening bid on this one. A touch of ice at onset for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 18, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 18, 2023 GFS now west, Euro now east. More interesting is the system to the north is gone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Huge nod to the gfs. The euro and candian had rain to Toronto even north of there and zero frozen in NYS. They have dramatically shifted towards the colder gfs solution. The ggs did wobble a tad but, within expected range IMO at that range. GfS gets good chunk of the storm frozen from i84 on north. Euro and Canadian now have frozen into NPA and the catskills. Euro Gfs Canadian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Test. Been a while hey. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 50 minutes ago, Miller A said: Test. Been a while hey. They're coming out of the woodwork. Next thing you know @MDBlueridge will be making an appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 18z NAMd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, 1816 said: They're coming out of the woodwork. Next thing you know @MDBlueridge will be making an appearance. It’s always nice when all the winter faces pop back up in November. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2023 Trof evolution, hopefully these sync. Biggest difference is the way the GFS really dives a piece of energy from ND to the ArkLaTex This vigorous energy is allowing the GFS to drown the system rapidly at the coast. 17mb/12hr on the 18z. 12z was more dramatic. GFS ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 19, 2023 Probably closer to the maximum for some of the spread in H5 heights with regards to Northern stream energy, and degree of phasing. It's kind of a strange trof, the northern part has some negative tilt, but the base lags, and gets stretched towards Baja, so subtleties in it's orientation play a role too. Right now I'd lean towards a later blooming system, favoring the higher terrain of Nee England, perhaps into the 'dacks. Not ruling anything out here,a rock 1-3", 2-4" type thing before a change over for my backyard makes sense for this time of year. GEFS EPS Low clusters. The GEFS with more spread better captures the envelope, especially considering some of the volatile modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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