Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) Well, I was going to ignore Lidia until I saw this. History so far Interesting forecast history, don't recall seeing storms do a 180 like this in the Epac. Wonder if it will make it across to the Gulf? Edited October 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9, 2023 Lidia dropped off a bit since the last update to 65mph and 992mb, but is now forecast to reach 100mph before landfall. ADT has it at 65kts from SAB and TAFB, CIMMS ADT has it at 61kts and AiADT at 51kts. So this could be stronger already. Spoiler Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Lidia's convective structure has improved during the last several hours with deep bursts of convection, and cold cloud tops near -90 degrees Celsius at times. The low-level center has become embedded beneath this recent burst as well. There is a fairly large range of intensity estimates this advisory cycle, however. Subjective Dvorak satellite final-T intensity estimates are a T4.0/ 65 kts, from both TAFB and SAB. Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT are 51 kt and 61 kt, respectively. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago depicted a much weaker wind field around 35 kt, although the convective pattern has markedly improved since that time. Using a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to an uncertain 55 kt for this advisory. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon, which will provide valuable in-situ data to bring clarity to Lidia's intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 18.2N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 19.4N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 20.7N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.6N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED What happens on the other side of Mexico is also interesting. The Euro develops a low clearly independent of Lidia. CMC also has the disturbance but doesn't develop it like the Euro, which is odd. It does bring a low across Mexico into the GOM/BOC and eventually up to the US coast. It may be part of a front by the time it makes it here. Ukie develops like the Euro - next frame is missing data, but there is an L in the GOM where that eastern convection is located. GFS is in a different world. It ignores the leading disturbance and brings Lidia to the GOM This is 48hr with the L in the middle of Mexico Below is further along. On the above graphic you can argue that there is a little swirl on the west coast of Mexico where Lidia lands and that is still Lidia, or that the circle to the east of that feature is the low. This would mean that the new system in the graphic below is independent. Regardless, it's a different solution than the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 110.2W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES INIT 10/0900Z 18.6N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.5N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 21.1N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 (edited) The two main areas Lidia looks to disrupt are Puerto Vallarta (300k population) and maybe Gudalajara (metro pop 5.2M) Lidia is a Cat 2 now 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.8W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES INIT 10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED Edited October 10, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Cat 3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Webcam from the Hard Rock Puerto Vallarta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 145 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...LIDIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY AND IS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lidia has strengthened rapidly and has maximum winds near 125 mph (200 km/h). The minimum pressure is estimated to be 950 mb (28.05 in.). An updated intensity forecast to reflect this change will be issued within the next hour. SUMMARY OF 145 PM MDT...1945 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 106.8W ABOUT 130 MI...120 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Should probably update this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Permission to come ashore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Not sure if there's a lot of wunderstations in this part of Mexico. But this one looks pretty windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Holy Moley. Yesterday at 6pm mdt this was a TS at 65mph. No forecast or model had this happening. 75mph increase in wind in 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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