Tropical Storm Ophelia | Peak 70mph 986mb | post-tropical, lingering

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

But the new center looks nearly due west.

Wrong, SW 😲

[StretchCT]

Good night up close

 

Further away... with lightning near the center

Last drop in the storm for mission one has 74mph winds at the surface. 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Storm surge already flooding NC

 

[StretchCT]

Down to 984.

[StretchCT]

OBX is pretty windy

Heck so is NJ

Edited September 23, 2023 by StretchCT

[Sentinel]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

OBX is pretty windy

Heck so is NJ

This blew up rather quickly 

[StretchCT]

Pretty much has an eye now.

[StretchCT]

If Ophelia had 12 more hours.

[StretchCT]

NHC keeps it at 70mph for the 11pm update, acknowledging that there were hurricane force winds but they were only "transient".  

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area.  Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.

The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days.  This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday.  An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.

Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close.  It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia.  The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours.  The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 33.6N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 35.0N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 38.0N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0000Z 39.0N  76.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

NHC keeps it at 70mph for the 11pm update, acknowledging that there were hurricane force winds but they were only "transient".  

  Reveal hidden contents

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area.  Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.

The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days.  This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday.  An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.

Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close.  It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia.  The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours.  The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 33.6N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 35.0N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 38.0N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0000Z 39.0N  76.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

It has 4-5 hrs left over gulf stream waters. Let's see what happens

[1816]

Wind in the trees just woke me up. It's blowing out there. 

[MaineJay]

12 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Storm surge already flooding NC

 

The next few years are going to be bad for these types of coastal flooding. I've mentioned it before, but for those just tuning in, within the 18.6 moon cycle, we are moving towards the peak of the sinusoidal cycle.

  My understanding is that it could add as much as a foot in areas with greater tidal ranges.

[NJRoute22]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

within the 18.6 moon cycle, we are moving towards the peak of the sinusoidal cycle.

What can you recommend as good sites to read more about the correlation between cycles and flooding, etc.? Do you have any favorites? Sounds very interesting.

[Burr]

good morning

Edited September 23, 2023 by Burr

[Burr]

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 77.0 West. Ophelia is 
moving toward the north near 13 mph (21 km/h). A continued 
northward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the 
northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia 
will move across eastern North Carolina this morning, and then move 
into southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula by the end of 
 today into and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected through the rest of 
the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone tonight or Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) 
from the center. An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, 
recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust to 
71 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches) 
based on nearby surface observations.

[Burr]

[Burr]

Wider view

 

[clm]

Friend of mine in Williamsburg, VA reported that more than 2000 in his area without power.  He never lost power though.  Center shifted to Richmond and they have a lot of outages as well.

Up on Long Island here, breezy and drizzling, nothing harsh.

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, NJRoute22 said:

What can you recommend as good sites to read more about the correlation between cycles and flooding, etc.? Do you have any favorites? Sounds very interesting.

Here's a paper on it.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JC014695

[StretchCT]

Weird here, but I guess expected.  Was making breakfast and heard this horrible sound outside and saw branches had come down on the deck and was being dragged. The trees were waving wildly.  When I went out to investigate, the rain had stopped and there wasn't a leaf moving. Then as I went in, another big gust, then nothing. 

Couldn't really capture the size of the branch well but it reaches all the way to the rail and is about 9 feet long.  It made a racket bouncing around of there.  FWIW, the highest gust I've had on the anemometer is 8mph. 

Edited September 23, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Didn't find much in the way of TS winds on the island or New England.  NJ on the other hand. These are just ones where the current wind on the map is 30mph+

Seabright is currently in the 40s/50s and had winds in the 60s/70s

Belmar with 46/55 currently in the 30s/40s

Mantoloking Yacht club with 40s/50s

Seaside park in the 40s

IBSP in the 50s

Sedge Island in Barnaget Bay in the 40s

Brighton Beach 40s/50s

Brigantine 40s/50s

Avalon 30s/40s

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by StretchCT

[clm]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Didn't find much in the way of TS winds on the island or New England.  NJ on the other hand.

Seabright is currently in the 40s/50s and had winds in the 60s/70s

 

Forecast inter ms of winds is "breezy" for my area

[clm]

So on the models, which one would I use to see how windy it is supposed to be?  Too many to choose from.  🤪

 

   

 

 

[StretchCT]

Some buoy data in knots winds/gusts

Cape Lookout hit 53/63 

Wrightsville beach offshore 47/72

 

 

[StretchCT]

27 minutes ago, clm said:

So on the models, which one would I use to see how windy it is supposed to be?  Too many to choose from.  🤪

 

   

 

 

For surface winds, the 10m wind in Lower dynamics.  For gusts, when they can mix down like in thunderstorms or downpours, I've been told the 850mb winds minus 10-20% but also been told just the 850mb winds.