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September 2nd to 30th, 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence


Iceresistance

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4 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Enhanced added for NE OK, SE KS. Rare for September but on right on brand for 2023 

To add to this, if the enhanced risk holds (which it should) it will be the first Day 1 enhanced (or equivalent probs) in the month of September for the Tulsa area since 2010 so this is quite unusual for this time of year. 

18z HRRR is looking pretty potent and even shows some action for C OK, unlike previous runs. We'll see what overnight and morning runs have but I would not be surprised to see a 5% tor area added. 

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There are still some heavy cells with hail and flash flood warnings. At least we could say that the outlook/convection-allowing models did have storm cells for multiple hours and the SPC outlook was reasonable. There have been areas of hail reports (up to 4" in OK)  and wind reports in MO and OK.

 

2023_09_24_0311z_KTLX_hail.jpg

Edited by Chinook
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  • The title was changed to September 2nd to 28th(?), 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence
  • The title was changed to September 2nd to 30th, 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence

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