Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 18, 2023 (edited) Panhandle marginal risk magic (not really though because this is a decent environment for a marginal risk day) Edited September 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 There is a range of possibilities for tomorrow with heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. The convection should be scattered at first, but then heavy rainfall values is in the model forecasts for Oklahoma.. The models generally have a section of Oklahoma that will experience a stronger low-level jet and stronger storm-relative helicity tomorrow afternoon into the evening. 500mb winds will be mainly from the west, with a wind speed max. Higher moisture will most likely be at Oklahoma City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 19, 2023 Some midnights thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 (edited) Day 1 outlook looks similar to the previous one, although it's worth noting the introduction of a 2% tor area Edited September 19, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Quite a bit of morning convection here. Started around 5am and it's been off and on since. So naturally I'm skeptical of getting anything strong here later today but maybe I'll be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 4 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Quite a bit of morning convection here. Started around 5am and it's been off and on since. So naturally I'm skeptical of getting anything strong here later today but maybe I'll be surprised Just had a small storm come through me, cleared US-177 without new development behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 @ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Really good clearing here, I would expect a watch to be up within the next couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Really good clearing here, I would expect a watch to be up within the next couple of hours Watch along and west of US-81 Really watching the Clinton, OK Storms, they were not forecasted very well on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 A few hail storms popped up in the southwest part of the outlook area. Today seems much like some springtime days where the jet stream is south but not a lot of storms pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Spoiler Mesoscale Discussion 2165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Areas affected...portions of central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686... Valid 200033Z - 200200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 continues. SUMMARY...A few supercells are approaching the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma which may necessitate an watch expansion. DISCUSSION...A left-moving supercell has produced multiple reports of quarter to golf ball sized hail across southwest Oklahoma with one report of 2 inch hail in Roosevelt. The environment remains unstable ahead of this storm and should maintain its intensity to at least I-35. In addition, another supercell has developed in Canadian county and recently had a report of 1 inch hail. As both of these storms approach central Oklahoma, an areal expansion of watch 686 will likely be needed. ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa .gov for graphic product... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Uhhhhh, please don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 some possible 2"-3" hail in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Left mover heading my way, should be able to make it here but we'll see. Tornado threat for the metro is very low but could be some hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Severe warning here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Oh man that's a huge hail core 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Pretty good storm here, not much wind or hail thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Shawnee had Tennis Balls last night, goodness gracious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 8 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Shawnee had Tennis Balls last night, goodness gracious Maybe you saw some good lightning out of Shawnee, which, I assume, is close to you. Yesterday is kind of one of those days that shows you that central Oklahoma has the right conditions for severe weather on and off for about 9 months out of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, Chinook said: Maybe you saw some good lightning out of Shawnee, which, I assume, is close to you. Yesterday is kind of one of those days that shows you that central Oklahoma has the right conditions for severe weather on and off for about 9 months out of the year. The lightning was crazy, but not much rainfall at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Severe weather threats for day-3 and day-4 are generally highlighted by the NAM supercell composite parameter. Certainly, there is a lot of time left and a reasonable amount of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Last several HRRR runs have really downtrended for OK today. I'm not really expecting much but maybe we can at least get some rain. Could be another round later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Last several HRRR runs have really downtrended for OK today. I'm not really expecting much but maybe we can at least get some rain. Could be another round later tonight Saturday looks interesting on the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Saturday looks interesting on the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I thought maybe today wouldn't be much of a severe weather day, and it might not be too active. But look at this, tornado warning already 4:00PM central. It's south of I-80, and by Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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