1816 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Burr said: Wiki says When you put it like that Lee is about to be in some rare company. Talk about an all star roster of hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 1816 said: When you put it like that Lee is about to be in some rare company. Talk about an all star roster of hurricanes. Gilbert the Great, with 888 in 88. (It all rhymes!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) Latest pass shows ~158 knots! (???) That’s 181mph for those not converting at home. Edited September 8, 2023 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I wonder if we get a 2am interim update at 920 mb / 180mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Getting mind-numbing seeing those numbers with this IR satellite presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Burr said: Getting mind-numbing seeing those numbers with this IR satellite presentation Lee: fuck your erc This is going to keep strengthening for a bit. Hope they are sending another plane out there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, 1816 said: Lee: fuck your erc This is going to keep strengthening for a bit. Hope they are sending another plane out there soon. The 11pm discussion described favorable conditions for strengthening through around noon tomorrow, at which time they were expecting peak winds that were just measured by the recon flight that just went through. So, yeah. would be nice if we could have more recon in there later this morning to see if Lee does approach Allen territory on the wind speed. on that note, it’s way past my bedtime. 💤 Edited September 8, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 But the Air Force says, ”Hold up… we have fuel and we’re going to use it! One more pass!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) Eye is tightening up into a pinhole it seems. Hard to imagine another bout of ERI but that could be about to happen. Edited September 8, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) Morning Lee Edited September 8, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, TLChip said: Morning Lee Wonder what was up with the sudden change in structure the last few frames. Went from perfect eye to contracting and losing some of that symmetry around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Appears the eye clouded over as well, at least on the visible satellite. Also might have not had enough coffee yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) As of the 5am update, 926mb / 165mph. Additional strengthening expected today. Edited September 8, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Appears the eye clouded over as well, at least on the visible satellite. Also might have not had enough coffee yet lol I think the eye is just tightening up more and the intense convection is spilling a little high clouds over the eye 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Wonder what was up with the sudden change in structure the last few frames. Went from perfect eye to contracting and losing some of that symmetry around the eye. I think we may be seeing the impacts of southwesterly shear mentioned in last night’s discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 8, 2023 Can't believe they pulled the floater off of it. Eye looks like it's about 5 miles wide. Kinda getting to the edge of resolution here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 8, 2023 These microwave shots are gorgeous. No ERC in the near future. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, MaineJay said: These microwave shots are gorgeous. No ERC in the near future. IT seems pinched off on the west/northwest side and the eye clouded over. Ruling out ERC, is there shear? Even ARCHER is messed up - blue being the forecast, red being where ARCHER puts the center. Ahhh, yes it is. 25kts from the SW. 13L HURRICANE 13L 6:00UTC 08September2023 UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates Current Conditions (from NHC) : Latitude : 17:40:55 N Longitude : 53:09:54 W Intensity (MSLP) : 916.0 hPa Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 890.0 hPa MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 26.0 hPa CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 13.3 m/s (25.8 kts) Direction : 215.6 deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr U U U U Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable -- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) -- 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0 N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0 U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0 VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0 Edited September 8, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 44 minutes ago, Burr said: I think we may be seeing the impacts of southwesterly shear mentioned in last night’s discussion. I should read farther back... would have saved me 10 mins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Wonder if this bad boy is gonna be able to fight through it or if we've seen his worst already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 ERC it is...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 I think he’s got more left in him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: ERC it is...? I really don't see a double eye wall where the outer contracts and the inner dissipates. Perhaps it's a different form than the text book ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: ERC it is...? That didnt look like any erc I've ever seen before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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