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Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical


Iceresistance

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3 minutes ago, clm said:

Are they anchored?  Or free floating?

The St Martin one is anchored.  Theres a bunch that only measure water height.  I'm also wondering if they are using any Saildrones. 

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4 minutes ago, Burr said:

I’ll post the NHC 11pm report… pins and needles.

Recon is going to be just a little behind the report too unfortunately.  They are flying into the NE quadrant now. Probably be 20 mins before they get to the eye. 

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As of 5am EDT this morning, Hurricane Jova was a Cat 5, later downgraded to Cat 4 at the 11am EDT update. 

That means we had a Cat 5 hurricane on the same day in both basins, just not at the same time, but perhaps within 12 hrs of each other. image.thumb.gif.2bbad0bb4848c64dd71264db0699d2b1.gif


 

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Recon going into the eye from the NE had 10 sec flight level winds of 169mph and sfmr winds of 163.  Min pressure 925. 

Then it took a hard left turn and looks like its going out the SE quadrant.  

image.thumb.png.11a04b9266b0bf08d675d470ddd71339.png

Edited by StretchCT
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Just now, StretchCT said:

Recon going into the eye from the NE had 10 sec flight level winds of 169mph and sfmr winds of 163.  Min pressure 925. 

Then it took a hard left turn and looks like its going out the SE quadrant.  

Got to give them props for flying into them

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31 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Recon going into the eye from the NE had 10 sec flight level winds of 169mph and sfmr winds of 163.  Min pressure 925. 

Then it took a hard left turn and looks like its going out the SE quadrant.  

image.thumb.png.11a04b9266b0bf08d675d470ddd71339.png

Looks like they took a detour into the SE quadrant but headed back out going SW again…

IMG_0745.jpeg

Edited by Burr
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3 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

This is a semi-rhetorical question and somewhat of a real question. Can Lee reach the theoretical limit for wind speed in the Atlantic? The Pacific had Hurricane Patricia at 215mph which would be virtually impossible for Lee to hit.  Hurricane Allen hit 190mph in 1980 for the highest ever 1 minute wind speed in the Atlantic. With a lot of really warm water, perfect conditions, and runway, can we get there again with Lee? 

For anyone who is interested in some light reading, check out just about anything from Kerry Emanuel from MIT. He placed the upper limit around 190mph, though not an absolute. Intensity would increase with an increase in SST's. Most of this post is just train of thought. This seems a bit like unchartered territory and I'm just in awe. 

I'm putting in my prediction for 195. Only because I'm too chicken to say 200. 

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27 minutes ago, Burr said:

Recon has made the inbound turn, approaching from the SE

 

IMG_0751.jpeg

The winds recon has measured are: 144 kt surface, 149 kt flight level. These are certainly in the upper tier of direct wind measurements I've ever seen, other than upper air maps.

on this graphic, 920.7mb, so perhaps the next official pressure value could be down there

recon_AF306-0213A-LEE_zoom (2).png

Edited by Chinook
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