Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[StretchCT]

Dropsonde found a 180kt/207mph wind at 918 mb, or around 800 feet.  Also on there was that the average wind under 150m was 146kts.  the average under 500m was 158kts

[MaineJay]

One hell of a microwave scan.

[Sentinel]

35 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Vortex message

936mb but dirty drop, 15nm eye, max surface winds 165mph, max flight winds, 170mph.  They got the sfmr winds at 160 going in and 165 going out, which is pretty amazing and a balanced system.  The difference in temp, from 9c to 22c outside and inside the eye has to be one of the highest differences I've ever seen. 

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:04Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.94N 51.70W
B. Center Fix Location: 590 statute miles (950 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,543m (8,343ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 34kts (From the SW at 39mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (160.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 132kts (From the NW at 151.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 144kts (165.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (70°) of center fix at 23:37:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 148kts (From the S at 170.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 23:38:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z

 

That is a pretty substantial difference. 

[StretchCT]

Hafs-A with a 900mb frame.  I wonder what the NAM3k would have.

[Psu1313]

48 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like the latest obs do in fact have 936mb and SFMR around 160mph. That would be quite insane if winds are already there and this is still deepening.

This is a semi-rhetorical question and somewhat of a real question. Can Lee reach the theoretical limit for wind speed in the Atlantic? The Pacific had Hurricane Patricia at 215mph which would be virtually impossible for Lee to hit.  Hurricane Allen hit 190mph in 1980 for the highest ever 1 minute wind speed in the Atlantic. With a lot of really warm water, perfect conditions, and runway, can we get there again with Lee? 

For anyone who is interested in some light reading, check out just about anything from Kerry Emanuel from MIT. He placed the upper limit around 190mph, though not an absolute. Intensity would increase with an increase in SST's. Most of this post is just train of thought. This seems a bit like unchartered territory and I'm just in awe. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Psu1313

[Burr]

Burr:  Hey, been at the office working all day, and finally have a chance to check in!

Lee:  You didn’t miss anything much.  Carry on.

 

This morning vs. now.

 

[StretchCT]

4 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

This is a semi-rhetorical question and somewhat of a real question. Can Lee reach the theoretical limit for wind speed in the Atlantic? The Pacific had Hurricane Patricia at 215mph which would be virtually impossible for Lee to hit.  Hurricane Allen hit 190mph in 1980 for the highest ever 1 minute wind speed in the Atlantic. With a lot of really warm water, perfect conditions, and runway, can we get there again with Lee? 

For anyone who is interested in some light reading, check out just about anything from Kerry Emanuel from MIT. He placed the upper limit around 190mph, though not an absolute. Intensity would increase with an increase in SST's. Most of this post is just train of thought. This seems a bit like unchartered territory and I'm just in awe. 

What's the record for the open Atlantic? Allen was Carribean/GOM for that, right off Cancun.  And by the way, an A storm hitting that is wild. 

[StretchCT]

@Psu1313According to the AI-RI tool, the maximum potential intensity is 159kts. 

edit: it looks like it broke the parameters for AI-RI. But SHIPS is still showing some RI possible.  This was at 8pm.

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Oh now its a party!!!!

[LongIslanGurlllll]

Thought I’d be on hiatus until winter buttttttt……… 

[Psu1313]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

What's the record for the open Atlantic? Allen was Carribean/GOM for that, right off Cancun.  And by the way, an A storm hitting that is wild. 

I believe Dorian but would have to check.

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Psu1313 said:

This is a semi-rhetorical question and somewhat of a real question. Can Lee reach the theoretical limit for wind speed in the Atlantic? The Pacific had Hurricane Patricia at 215mph which would be virtually impossible for Lee to hit.  Hurricane Allen hit 190mph in 1980 for the highest ever 1 minute wind speed in the Atlantic. With a lot of really warm water, perfect conditions, and runway, can we get there again with Lee? 

For anyone who is interested in some light reading, check out just about anything from Kerry Emanuel from MIT. He placed the upper limit around 190mph, though not an absolute. Intensity would increase with an increase in SST's. Most of this post is just train of thought. This seems a bit like unchartered territory and I'm just in awe. 

Yea SSTs definitely are a limiting factor but also areas around EPAC and WPAC tend to not have nearly as many negative factors atmospherically and essentially an open ocean compared to the Atlantic which does have an open ocean but can very volatile in most of the development region. EPAC can go as high as 30-31C in the main region for development while the Atlantic on average is around 27-29C and 29C may be pushing it until you are closer to Caribbean and the GOM where the warmth is similar in levels to EPAC and WPAC. There is a reason why the lowest pressures tend to be in the Gulf and Caribbean. 

So yes for this to hit upper levels in the open Atlantic given temps is pretty impressive. The thing that can change that is well higher SST's, this year in particular that region is running 1-2C above average so we are getting some of those upper levels of 29C further east then normal and 30C in spots just NE of the islands near the Caribbean so it is fairly possible if conditions stay right and Lee goes toward some of the warmest waters we may get close to that rare 180-190 range but that is pretty difficult and depending on ERC timing we may not get that and end up just expanding the windfield by plateauing around this level.

Honestly lets see what happens here. If I remember correctly Patricia had a small eye and so did Jova (just recently) so this also plays a factor. WPAC in itself is just a beast in itself so that can have some of the craziest things happen when conditions are primed.

[StretchCT]

Just noticed Tidbits updated to 135kts, which is 155.35 mph.

I think there is a data feed Dr. Cowan gets that automatically updates. It's not as if he wouldn't have access.

Hurricane LEE
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 08, 2023:
 

Location: 17.0°N 51.8°W
Maximum Winds: 135 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 10 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[Burr]

Sorry for playing catch-up… 5pm cone is well north of Barbuda now, so that’s some relief for them.

 

[Psu1313]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

What's the record for the open Atlantic? Allen was Carribean/GOM for that, right off Cancun.  And by the way, an A storm hitting that is wild. 

It is Dorian though he was in the Bahamas when he reached max intensity. Open ocean would be Irma.

[StretchCT]

1 minute ago, Psu1313 said:

It is Dorian though he was in the Bahamas when he reached max intensity. Open ocean would be Irma.

I'd give it to Dorian. 160kts at 910mb as it was heading into Marsh Harbor. Irma 155kts 914mb as it hit Barbuda. 

[Burr]

Wiki says

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Burr

[StretchCT]

Recon is amazing. 

They're heading through the NW eyewall and picking up unbelievable data. Almost a 20C temp difference, spot winds of 180 at the surface and estimated surface winds of 162mph.   I think they'll count this one. 

[StretchCT]

Last drop in the eye was better, still not calm though.  930 pressure. Not unreasonable to use. HDOB didn't have that info.

Drop in the NW eye with 154mph surface.  718 interestingly is just below flight level 

[Burr]

The outflow is spectacular

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

I'm fascinated with what NHC decides to do and I hope they explain it like they do every once in a while. 

Pressure 930, 15nm wide eye, sfmr winds in 165 mph, flight level winds in 167mph. SFMR out 141 mph, flight out 142mph. Temp in eye 27c, outside 7c (actually 6.5) and dewpoint 4c.  Max flight level winds 170mph. 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 1:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.12N 52.18W
B. Center Fix Location: 568 statute miles (913 km) to the ENE (61°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,538m (8,327ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 355° at 20kts (From the N at 23mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 143kts (164.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (5°) of center fix at 1:27:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 48° at 145kts (From the NE at 166.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (343°) of center fix at 1:25:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 123kts (141.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 1:31:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 252° at 124kts (From the WSW at 142.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 1:31:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,024m (9,921ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z

Now SFMR winds aren't always accurate, but they've been fairly consistent with flight level and theories about whether a strengthening storm has higher surface winds compared to flight level. Also on WXTwitter are suggestions that the strength we are at may be leveling out the winds in the column.  So I have no idea if the sfmr winds are going to be used.  

[Sentinel]

14 minutes ago, Burr said:

The outflow is spectacular

Yes.. And you know me and outflow... 

[StretchCT]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

Yes.. And you know me and outflow... 

[StretchCT]