TLChip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) The eye is stable and clear now. Recon send pics please 😍 Edited September 7, 2023 by TLChip 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: would not be surprised to see this labeled as Cat 4 possibly low end 5 by overnight update. Thing is taking off it will be interesting to see how the surrounding environment reacts to this system now. Could see it have more westerly component by the weekend which is not what you wanna see. Where that turn occurs will be incredibly important. I do not know why you were not tagged as a met - but.... fixed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: I do not know why you were not tagged as a met - but.... fixed!! Had no clue thanks! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I find it telling that in today's modern social media screwed up world where we have unqualified lunatics chasing tornados and hurricanes, trying to get the craziest footage for the insta grams or ticktocks or whatever, that nobody ever attempts to chase these things at sea. I would love to see what the inside of Lee looks like from sea level right now, but of course anything in position to capture it wouldn't survive it. It's like the difference between looking at a lion in a cage vs right next to you. A hurricane in its natural environment mid ocean is so scary even today's crazy internet people know not to get near it. Ok bye I'm going to watch the perfect storm again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: This is absolutely bonkers. Cannot believe that this thing yesterday afternoon/evening was just a CAT 1 getting its legs together.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, 1816 said: I find it telling that in today's modern social media screwed up world where we have unqualified lunatics chasing tornados and hurricanes, trying to get the craziest footage for the insta grams or ticktocks or whatever, that nobody ever attempts to chase these things at sea. I would love to see what the inside of Lee looks like from sea level right now, but of course anything in position to capture it wouldn't survive it. It's like the difference between looking at a lion in a cage vs right next to you. A hurricane in its natural environment mid ocean is so scary even today's crazy internet people know not to get near it. Ok bye I'm going to watch the perfect storm again. I imagine it would be like going over Niagara Falls in a wooden barrel over and over and over again. Then at some point you die. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) @1816 I remember watching a webcam from a house in Marathon during Irma, people were in it. The ocean was banging on the 1st floor windows and you couldn’t even see any land. Was supposed to be some crazy cat5 rated house, I can’t even remember what platform it was steaming on, it went out eventually. Hope they made it. Called off work that day glued to Irma. Edited September 7, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, TLChip said: @1816 I remember watching a webcam from a house in Marathon during Irma, people were in it. The ocean was banging on the 1st floor windows and you couldn’t even see any land. Was supposed to be some crazy cat5 rated house, I can’t even remember what platform it was steaming on, it went out eventually. Hope they made it. Called off work that day glued to Irma. 1st floor windows in marathon are second story windows. Every house there is on stilts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Recon is through it's first pass. HDOBS with 928 pressure 🤩 and 144kt smfr winds and 133kt flight level. The peak 10sec flight wind was 140kts and the estimated surface wind based on reduction was 134.7 kts or 155.1 mph. Shows as Cat 4 on the chart, but my chart has anything over 155 being Cat 5. Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, TLChip said: The eye is stable and clear now. Recon send pics please 😍 Sure looks like a buzzsaw at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Recon is through it's first pass. HDOBS with 928 pressure 🤩 and 144kt smfr winds and 133kt flight level. As soon as I saw that my mouth dropped like whatttt 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Recon is through it's first pass. HDOBS with 928 pressure 🤩 and 144kt smfr winds and 133kt flight level. Holy. Crap. Lee is not here to fuck around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: As soon as I saw that my mouth dropped like whatttt I can't tell what's going on with the sondes though. One was clearly on the edges, but the next one on TropAtl is an incomplete drop at 43kts and min 938mb. That's a really noisy center drop if that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Recon is through it's first pass. HDOBS with 928 pressure 🤩 and 144kt smfr winds and 133kt flight level. So I Googled it and 144 kts is 165 mph. Would this be gusts or sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Crazy pressurr drops in the last 24 hours wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, TLChip said: The eye is stable and clear now. Recon send pics please 😍 Bummer about it being dark. We probably aren't gonna get much tonight. The stadium was clearly visible on the goes16 stretch posted earlier. Maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I can't tell what's going on with the sondes though. One was clearly on the edges, but the next one on TropAtl is an incomplete drop at 43kts and min 938mb. That's a really noisy center drop if that's what it is. Reasonable estimates at this point are 150mph and low 930s, maybe even upper 920s. That ERC will just expand that windfield like crazy hopefully only one occurs but we still have 5 days until it is east of the bahamas so could easily get two in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Will be interesting to see it slowly get larger in size as replacements occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, TheRex said: So I Googled it and 144 kts is 165 mph. Would this be gusts or sustained? Most likely a gust don't think we are quite that far up the wind speed scale yet. maybe by tomorrow morning if everything holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 8, 2023 Eye looks like it's become perfectly circular, and tightening up 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Eye looks like it's become perfectly circular, and tightening up G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) From the latest info 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 8, 2023 Looks like the latest obs do in fact have 936mb and SFMR around 160mph. That would be quite insane if winds are already there and this is still deepening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 Vortex message 936mb but dirty drop, 15nm eye, max surface winds 165mph, max flight winds, 170mph. They got the sfmr winds at 160 going in and 165 going out, which is pretty amazing and a balanced system. The difference in temp, from 9c to 22c outside and inside the eye has to be one of the highest differences I've ever seen. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:04Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: Lee Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:35:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.94N 51.70W B. Center Fix Location: 590 statute miles (950 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,543m (8,343ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 34kts (From the SW at 39mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (160.0mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 310° at 132kts (From the NW at 151.9mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (246°) of center fix at 23:33:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 144kts (165.7mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (70°) of center fix at 23:37:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 148kts (From the S at 170.3mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 23:38:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 148kts (~ 170.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 23:38:00Z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 8, 2023 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: The difference in temp, from 9c to 22c outside and inside the eye has to be one of the highest differences I've ever seen. More on the temps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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