Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[Iceresistance]

Can't be 105, it must be either 120 or 125 mph

[so_whats_happening]

This storm is looking beautiful! We may really get a buzz saw look later on if not tomorrow.

Jova also looked amazing at peak. These storms have had beautiful looks to them this year.

[StretchCT]

Wondering if they do an interim at 2pm to update.  The adjusted T is nearing or over cat 4

The raw T is 6.5, closer to 125kts or 140mph

     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                    ADT-Version 9.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  07 SEP 2023    Time :   171020 UTC
      Lat :   16:32:24 N     Lon :   50:30:00 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.0     5.8     6.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

 Center Temp : +13.5C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

[Neoncyclone]

Wow

[StretchCT]

Euro is just a smidge off the 40/70 benchmark 

Landfall in Maine - should be good for 10 inches on the west side. 

One could extrapolate the JMA out to be a US landfall as well. Probably same area.

Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not.

For a refresher here's the track

Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it.

Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis.  Last frame is mslp at landfall. 

This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro.  Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI.  

 

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro-Ensemble, I just found this record member at 888 mb

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not.

For a refresher here's the track

Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it.

Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis.  Last frame is mslp at landfall. 

This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro.  Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI.  

 

Definitely worrisome. Cool graphics!

[junior]

[StretchCT]

Wheels up for recon. 

Raw T up to 6.7 - Cat 5 is around 6.9.  

Current Intensity Analysis
	UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 194020 UTC Lat : 16:42:00 N Lon : 50:57:35 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.7 5.8 6.7 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C Scene Type : EYE

CI just nudged into Cat 4 territory.  What's NHC gonna do

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

would not be surprised to see this labeled as Cat 4 possibly low end 5 by overnight update.

Thing is taking off it will be interesting to see how the surrounding environment reacts to this system now. Could see it have more westerly component by the weekend which is not what you wanna see. Where that turn occurs will be incredibly important.

[StretchCT]

11am update info - other sites are saying 105kts now.

11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 16.4°N 50.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

 

[1816]

13 minutes ago, junior said:

This one should go into the dictionary under what happens to a hurricane when nothing holds it back. 

[TLChip]

Looking juicy, saw blades soon?

[StretchCT]

I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away.  Amazing how quick it got to this structure.

[StretchCT]

15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

11am update info - other sites are saying 105kts now.

11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7
Location: 16.4°N 50.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

 

Dropped 30mb in 6 hours. 

Should be Cat 5 in under 12 hrs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 16.9N  51.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.6N  53.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.7N  55.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.7N  57.2W  140 KT 160 MPH

Disco in spoiler

Spoiler

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane
has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold
cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on
recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were
constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T
was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which
should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the
hurricane's intensity.

Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to
continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional
hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee
will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or
so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities
from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like
eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are
not easily predictable well in advance, but we don't yet see an 
indication that Lee's intensification is stopping yet. The official 
intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after 
24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are.

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change 
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving 
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge 
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by 
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep 
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. 
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early 
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential 
impacts a week or more out.

The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas
and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting
portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will
spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East
Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult
products from your local weather office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is 
expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early 
next week. 

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in 
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will 
spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks 
and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the 
U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your 
local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 16.9N  51.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.6N  53.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.7N  55.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.7N  57.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 20.6N  59.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 21.3N  60.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 22.0N  61.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 23.1N  64.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 24.0N  66.4W  120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT

[Roger89]

Cat-4.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/072051.shtml

[so_whats_happening]

So from 11pm AST yesterday posted last page we were  80mph and 989mb storm

5pm AST advisory today now at 130mph and 953mb

Drop of 46mb in the last 18 hours and increase in winds of about 43 knots.

[junior]

Lee looks stronger every frame. Very cold tops or deep convection surrounds the eye now. 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by junior

[1816]

15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away.  Amazing how quick it got to this structure.

Not sure when was the last time I saw 360 degree gravity waves like this

[NJ Snowman]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not.

For a refresher here's the track

Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it.

Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis.  Last frame is mslp at landfall. 

This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro.  Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI.  

 

If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us.

[Sentinel]

22 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us.

 

55 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away.  Amazing how quick it got to this structure.

That is positively gorgeous 

 

[Iceresistance]

Good lord!

[Sentinel]

23 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said:

If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us.

Yeah... I am debating sending a Sit Rep to some local stakeholders as just a - look things over. That withstanding, to say that there is any confidence in any scenario at this point would be foolish. 

[1816]

2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Yeah... I am debating sending a Sit Rep to some local stakeholders as just a - look things over. That withstanding, to say that there is any confidence in any scenario at this point would be foolish. 

Sage words as usual. Nothing is off the table, including areas way south of New England. Just because it's been a long while since a hurricane model shift that is very impactful has happened doesn't mean it won't happen here. 

If you can count on the weather community for anything it would be to start acting like a forecast a week or more away is stone cold lock. 

The steering forces way down the road aren't locked in by any means. Anyone living on the east coast of us and canada, Bahamas, northern Caribbean all better keep a very close eye on this storm. 

And if I was in the UK or Portugal I'd still keep an eye on it.