Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Can't be 105, it must be either 120 or 125 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 This storm is looking beautiful! We may really get a buzz saw look later on if not tomorrow. Jova also looked amazing at peak. These storms have had beautiful looks to them this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Wondering if they do an interim at 2pm to update. The adjusted T is nearing or over cat 4 The raw T is 6.5, closer to 125kts or 140mph UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 171020 UTC Lat : 16:32:24 N Lon : 50:30:00 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.0 5.8 6.5 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C Scene Type : EYE Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Euro is just a smidge off the 40/70 benchmark Landfall in Maine - should be good for 10 inches on the west side. One could extrapolate the JMA out to be a US landfall as well. Probably same area. Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not. For a refresher here's the track Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it. Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis. Last frame is mslp at landfall. This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro. Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 12z Euro-Ensemble, I just found this record member at 888 mb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not. For a refresher here's the track Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it. Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis. Last frame is mslp at landfall. This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro. Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI. Definitely worrisome. Cool graphics! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Wheels up for recon. Raw T up to 6.7 - Cat 5 is around 6.9. Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 194020 UTC Lat : 16:42:00 N Lon : 50:57:35 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.7 5.8 6.7 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C Scene Type : EYE CI just nudged into Cat 4 territory. What's NHC gonna do Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 would not be surprised to see this labeled as Cat 4 possibly low end 5 by overnight update. Thing is taking off it will be interesting to see how the surrounding environment reacts to this system now. Could see it have more westerly component by the weekend which is not what you wanna see. Where that turn occurs will be incredibly important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 11am update info - other sites are saying 105kts now. 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7 Location: 16.4°N 50.0°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 983 mb Max sustained: 105 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, junior said: This one should go into the dictionary under what happens to a hurricane when nothing holds it back. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Looking juicy, saw blades soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away. Amazing how quick it got to this structure. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 11am update info - other sites are saying 105kts now. 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7 Location: 16.4°N 50.0°W Moving: WNW at 15 mph Min pressure: 983 mb Max sustained: 105 mph Dropped 30mb in 6 hours. Should be Cat 5 in under 12 hrs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH Disco in spoiler Spoiler Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the hurricane's intensity. Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are not easily predictable well in advance, but we don't yet see an indication that Lee's intensification is stopping yet. The official intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after 24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are. Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out. The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Cat-4. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/072051.shtml 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 So from 11pm AST yesterday posted last page we were 80mph and 989mb storm 5pm AST advisory today now at 130mph and 953mb Drop of 46mb in the last 18 hours and increase in winds of about 43 knots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Lee looks stronger every frame. Very cold tops or deep convection surrounds the eye now. Edited September 7, 2023 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away. Amazing how quick it got to this structure. Not sure when was the last time I saw 360 degree gravity waves like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Snowman Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Not sure how many of you remember the Long Island Express storm of 1938.... maybe one of you, or not. For a refresher here's the track Here's a link to the NWS page dedicated to it. Here is a gif of the 500mb reanalysis. Last frame is mslp at landfall. This when it was off Florida, prior to accelerating north. Compared to JMA/Euro. Keep in mind, still 9 days off. But understand the concern. Right now Lee is supposed to move slower so should be weaker if it hits New England/LI. If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said: If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us. 55 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I had to research if this was Jova or Lee - the darkening and Goes 16 gives it away. Amazing how quick it got to this structure. That is positively gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 23 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said: If Lee makes landfall as a cat 3 on Long Island/New England area god help us. Yeah... I am debating sending a Sit Rep to some local stakeholders as just a - look things over. That withstanding, to say that there is any confidence in any scenario at this point would be foolish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Yeah... I am debating sending a Sit Rep to some local stakeholders as just a - look things over. That withstanding, to say that there is any confidence in any scenario at this point would be foolish. Sage words as usual. Nothing is off the table, including areas way south of New England. Just because it's been a long while since a hurricane model shift that is very impactful has happened doesn't mean it won't happen here. If you can count on the weather community for anything it would be to start acting like a forecast a week or more away is stone cold lock. The steering forces way down the road aren't locked in by any means. Anyone living on the east coast of us and canada, Bahamas, northern Caribbean all better keep a very close eye on this storm. And if I was in the UK or Portugal I'd still keep an eye on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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