Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 41 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Publicly available here. I'm not sure how long this link will work for. You can search through the charts if the link expires. https://charts.ecmwf.int/chart-set/Latest forecast?base_time=202309061200&productNames=fourcast_medium-mslp-wind850&productNames=graphcast_medium-mslp-wind850&productNames=pangu_medium-mslp-wind850&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202309061800 Interesting in that all three take Lee due north once it's heading in that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Lee track history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 989 mb / 80mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Look at who wanted to get an eye cleared out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Should start ramping up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 GYX says, "easy children". Quote LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall pattern at 500 MB across NOAM and vicinity continue to look more like summer than autumn, as main zonal part of the jet stays well N of the intl border, with cool air hard to find, even when troughs do develop. The coolest 850 MB temps only drop to around 10 C, which is fairly close to normal, and this doesn`t last very long according to models. Sfc flow will affect temps somewhat, but other than a cool rainy day /of which there could be one or two/, temps should generally be on the warn side of normal. Also, let’s not get too excited about Day 9-10 models runs and tropical systems at this point 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 9 hours ago, StretchCT said: Nobody is discussing Margot yet. Trending closer to Lee. GFS trend for next Thursday. Yea the m storm plays a huge role as thought. Thinking outer banks brush and cape cod brush right now. Could very well make landfall though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 17 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Yea long ways to go on this one where exactly the westward motion stops will be key this will be highly dependent on how the ridging is modeled in the Atlantic. I also believe the system behind lee, whatever the M name is, will also plays a factor in how things set up. It could enhance ridging which means weaker trough in NE and further west ATL ridge or it could significantly weaken the ridge and allow a nice gradual recurve. Either way im loving the hurricane activity off the coast to help cool these waters give us another 2 before season ends and I may be a happy camper. My thoughts still the same. If you look at where franklin went i say just west of there is this systems path. This is why the 'N' storm forecasted after this could be the big risk factor. As always still pretty far out but models always tend to not grasp the atlantic ridging pattern right. They do it in summer and winter. First lets see how quickly it can get to major hurricane status. Next is how much north or south it goes around 20N 60W. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 7, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 7, 2023 Quite a few, maybe 20-25%, of EPS members visit vacationland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Paraphrasing Lionel Ritchie… “Hello” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Looks like Lee got his rest and ready to start the day by going beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Welp, there he goes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Interesting that ADT doesn't put the center in the "eye", but the progression to the ring of convection is impressive. As with Jova, ADT will have constraints kicking in so as to not over portray the intensification. It's possible in looking at this again that ADT was picking up a surface eye a few frames back and the rest of the column was just off to its east. But it does appear to be going boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 I posted in Idalia's thread an analysis which was done concerning model performance and the HAFS-B got good reviews. The two H's I added are upper highs. The flow around them is optimal for Lee - the northern one provides a western flow complimenting the circulation, the western H provides northerly flow complementing the circulation. AFS-B The concern is that the two combine to not only enhance the circulation (at 500mb) but also to steer Lee further west. Maybe these 4 frames moving due west are temporary, it's the end of the run so I can't tell. But I don't want any due west movement with this storm ever, unless it's to avoid Bermuda. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. The question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually within the guidance envelope. INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/071459.shtml Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Some trends... https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al132023/ HAFS A latest 6z run has it peak at 160kts, or 185mph. Highest and soonest of the runs. HAFS B down to 150kts, lower than prior runs, although sooner. HWRF keeps it a Cat 4, but is the highest yet. SHIPS now over Cat 4 and it's highest run Edited September 7, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Where the Pangu AI ECMWF model was crossing 40n yesterday Todays 0z run is 6 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 RAW ADT JUST SHOT UP TO A 6.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, Iceresistance said: RAW ADT JUST SHOT UP TO A 6.2 Yeah, and that's from 11:10. 6.2 is Cat 3 territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Yeah, and that's from 11:10. 6.2 is Cat 3 territory. 6.2 is actually a Category 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Beast mode intializing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I always imagine the days of wooden ships. And some captain, wet behind the ears, not realizing the weather clues like they should. And getting run down by a monster like Lee. How terrifying is that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: 6.2 is actually a Category 4 It's funny that the chart had that but I was squinting at it and couldn't believe it would be a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Lotta lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 30 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Lotta lightning That thing looks monstrous. No wonder the models are showing off the charts intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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