NHSparky Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: That band looks a little north and west of guidance, or maybe faster. FV3 might be closest. Any concerns then that perhaps it's coming in a little more to the West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) Heavy rain hitting the Cape and ACK Edited September 16, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 26 minutes ago, NHSparky said: Any concerns then that perhaps it's coming in a little more to the West? It's certainly possible the precip reaches a little more westerly. A lot of models show that leading band dissipate as it pushes on show, so kinda watching how it holds up. Even if it did track further west, I think it would only increase QPF, the winds probably wouldn't be affected much. The wind on the backside is more like a traditional Nor' Easter, with the wind field more spread out now, as It's lost a lot of if it's tropical characteristics. It would have to move extremely far west to get into any remaining tropical core. I think more likely, it's moving along a little quicker. Still just a little breezy up this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 ECMWF still insists I will see 4x the rainfall that the GFS, NAM and now HRRR are projecting with this storm knocking on the door. It will be interesting to look back and see how the models performed in retrospect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 Just drove down to Bridgeport and not a tree swaying. Dead quiet at the house compared to yesterday have some trees moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 Pretty much a non-event here so far, I believe the worst winds were forecast for mid morning. 0.03". It's a little windy, but nothing problematic. Dew point of 54° is doing it's job eating the precip. Almost 60°, was a few degrees cooler overnight. Temp forecasts have risen a bit for today, maybe moving out quicker with a little sun? The sky does appear to brighten at times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 Little to no rain and 58° with 15mph gusts. The bands coming off the storm going north are spotty. Looks like all the action is between Bar Harbor and Calais. I've been watching the hourly HRRR updates (via FlowX which is great) and the modeled furthest extent of the primary rain core will be somewhere between Caribou and the Canadian border based on the current modeling and radar ingest. Still matter of mere miles between practically no rain and ~ a couple inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 Change of plans… we’re heading to the shore. water temp is 74-degrees, air temp is currently 68. (Photo from previous visit) 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 On 9/15/2023 at 8:42 AM, Mainiac said: Strange being in the thunderstorm hatched area in preparation for (extra) tropical moisture when I was considering turning the heat on this morning (a balmy 46° outside, 64° inside). We're a mere 10 days away from the NWS not bothering to warn us about frost/freeze because it's just expected. And here I thought it got cold in Maine. We've had morning temps in the 40s last two days here in VA (had 46 this morning). If it's as cold here as in Maine, I expect equivalent snowfall this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 I have a feeling the November Ballot Question #3 could be driven by this outcomes of this storm, although for the time being the outages don't look that bad all things considered. Strongest gust 21.7mph and 0.01" of rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 Radar has 80 mph winds 3000 feet up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 Glad my Maine friends are okay. 🙂 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 Center still looks neat, even without the crazy convection of a cat 5. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 Most of orangey and darker light blue are in the 70s at 2500-3000 feet. There were some pixels of 100+ which I am not suggesting are accurate, but who knows if its a gust or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Center still looks neat, even without the crazy convection of a cat 5. A quick glance and it almost look like it is going NNW. I guess that is just the convection creating somewhat of an optical illusion. Definitely looks like a classic nor'easter right now with that giant comma structure, but much better contained around the concentric core (for now). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) Eastport ME buoy is at TS strength with peak gust of 53kts. Jonesport buoy has a camera. Also sustained TS winds and gusts of 52kts. Waves of 19 feet. Mt Desert Rock station has TS strength sustained with 52kt gusts. Mantincus Rock is over TS strength with gusts to 55kts. The above all in the Gulf of Maine and seeing pressure still lowering. Georges Bank buoy which was right in the path is below. Wave heights made it to 29 feet. Edited September 16, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 I could watch the surfers, battling through the break to get to the waves, all day long. Higgins Beach. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) I had guessed 19mph wind gust for me here in the hollow. The trees are moving a little more than earlier and once in a while you can hear the wind outside. But my peak gust so far today is 7mph. Not even close to my guess. But I'm still not going for a walk in my woods. Edited September 16, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 (edited) Some Wunderground obs in mph sus/gust Brewster on the Cape 44/58 Harwichport Allen Yacht Club 33/48 Great Hill Truro 53/59 Kill Devil Cottages N Truro 47/48 Nantucket 44/55 Kittery Point 35/46 Vinal Cove (below) Deer Island 45/56 Swan Island 38/38 Cadillac Mountain 61mph Bar Harbor 51/54 Beals 55mph In Nova Scotia... mph unless noted Port Mouton 38/50 Rye Hill 41/41 East Pennant 42/51 Halifax 53/58 This one for fun, obviously someone with a leaf blower in front of it. Edited September 16, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 16, 2023 18 hours ago, StretchCT said: I knew there was a cam at the Beachcomber and Cahoon Hollow on the Cape. It's definitely rough there from what I can make out through the salthaze. This cam cleared up. Looks rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 It has been blowing hard on this sunny afternoon in Buxton, Maine. I can only guess that the highest gusts have been near 50mph since my Ambient weather station (with an anemometer) bit the dust last week and I am still waiting for a replacement . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 16, 2023 It's gusting up here to about 30 mph now. The center of circulation crossed directly over Yarmouth at 12:10 PM. It's still moving slow. It will get back out over water and then into New Brunswick , which will take about 6 hours (for what is left of the core) transiting the Bay of Fundy per current projections. Almost 100k without power. On a side note I love how fast the NHC dumps a storm once it is technically extra tropical. Still has 75 mph winds...but not our problem. The WPC and SPC people have you covered. Have a nice day! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Mainiac said: Definitely looks like a classic nor'easter right now with that giant comma structure Just missing the large white swath of snow they tend to leave behind! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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