Moderators StretchCT Posted September 14, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 14, 2023 (edited) Saw this going west earlier, now it's east? Just bopping back and forth as it goes north I guess. RAMMB File might be too big. Try another. Edited September 14, 2023 by StretchCT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Saw this going west earlier, now it's east? Just bopping back and forth as it goes north I guess. RAMMB File might be too big. Try another. Love this image. You can see the sinking air from this angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 14, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Mainiac said: The predicted impacts at my location have dropped significantly since yesterday. The QPF over at the WPC dropped from 4"-6" to 0"-1" and there is now a 0% chance of tropical storm winds per the latest NHC update. I got 1.21" yesterday and really don't need it anymore! Not actually too surprised to see this storm recurve more than initially expected. They almost always do and the Gulf of Maine is where hurricanes go to die. SREFs are below 50% for PoPs down this way. Nice trend in the NAM3. Might get that Sea Dogs game in? Probably too optimistic, but holding out hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 ECMWF is a bit more bullish on the rainfall in northeastern Maine (around 3") and then we pick up another inch a bit later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 12 hours ago, TheRex said: If you are out today, you may want to ask your local gas stations if they have generators that will keep the pumps working if they lose electricity. After Sandy, there was no fuel stations in my area in NJ that I could find that were running on generator power. Luckily, I was running a Honda 2000 watt generator that didn't use much fuel so I had less troubles. My neighbors running bigger generators had troubles. Great idea! Never have thought of that. I was splitting time between NJ and ME due to my ex-husband during Sandy, we stayed up here for over 2 weeks because of the situation in NJ. My former in;laws had to leave their house in Elizabeth and stay in our house in Point Pleasant. Crazy time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: SREFs are below 50% for PoPs down this way. Nice trend in the NAM3. Might get that Sea Dogs game in? Probably too optimistic, but holding out hope. Good news - we don't need more rain! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 11 hours ago, clm said: You shouldn't be getting any rain. Will be windy, probably in the 10 to 15 mph range. Unless you were planning to go into the water, or if the winds could cause the boardwalk to get flooded out. We try to go in September to go swimming and avoid the crowds. The water is warm, the air temps are ideal. Been doing it for years, and it’s extraordinary. My daughter is 18 now, but it’s an annual trip we look forward to. Maybe we’ll go Sunday… we’ll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 Might not see much rain at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 Technically, I'm in the TS warning. GYX Quote SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Hurricane Lee impacts the region this weekend... Hurricane Lee continues to move northward toward the Gulf of Maine. The track forecast has remained consistent over the last 24 hours, with a landfall of Lee expected near the western tip of Nova Scotia tomorrow evening. This keeps the storm well east of New England, but Lee`s expanding wind field brings impacts to the area tonight through tomorrow night. The biggest concern from Lee will be the wind impacts. Damaging northerly wind gusts closer to the coast are expected in the tropical storm warning areas, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph also expected inland. Lee will mostly be extratropical by the time it reaches Nova Scotia, so it will be behaving more like a Nor`easter than a pure tropical system. With this characteristic, strong mixing from drier air on the western side of Lee will allow for strong wind gusts to mix down well inland. These impacts are likely to be locally enhanced on the south ends of lakes where just that small amount of exposure to the north will be enough to result in locally stronger winds. Sebago Lake in particular is likely to see locally stronger winds on it`s southern and eastern shores, owing to it`s width. Power outages are a concern as trees remain fully leafed out and the ground has been wet. In the tropical storm warning areas, damaging winds will down trees and power lines, with widespread power outages possible. Outside of these areas, wind gusts of 40-50 mph are still likely, with scattered power outages possible. Rain is not expected to be a major factor from Lee as drier air erodes the western rain shield of the system. The MidCoast stands the best chance at seeing some rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, but amounts quickly drop off toward the west, with little if any rain expected across most of New Hampshire. Storm surge is not expected to be a major issue as winds remain offshore, and accompany relatively low astronomical tides. That being said, some minor coastal flooding is still possible on Saturday afternoon as very large waves pound the shoreline, and surge up to two feet brings water level close to flood stage. The large waves will be one of the most pronounced features from this system, with waves of 15-20ft breaking just offshore on Saturday. Large sets of waves up to twice as large as the average waves will pose the risk of sweeping individuals standing too close to the water or on the rocks into the water, so admire from afar on Saturday. In terms of timing, winds steadily increase during the overnight hours tonight, with tropical storm force gusts likely by daybreak along the coast tomorrow. These winds expand inland during the daytime as mixing increases and the storm moves closer. Winds will gradually ease during the late afternoon and evening as the system weakens, and will then subside more steadily Saturday night as Lee moves into the Canadian Maritimes and continues to weaken. Any rain will follow a similar timeline, and again will mainly be confined to eastern zones. By Sunday morning, mainly a westerly breeze and residual large waves will be all that will be felt as Lee moves away. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 SREFs are putting me at ~ 1". NAM 1.5". ECMWF 2.25". The new WPC map has me back in the 1"-2" range and not too far from the 2"-4" zone. A slight delay in the turn will make a big difference. It will be interesting to see the predicted banding characteristics once the HRRR is in range. I'm sure it will be feast or famine in the gradient areas away from the storm core. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for all of eastern Maine. Strange being in the thunderstorm hatched area in preparation for (extra) tropical moisture when I was considering turning the heat on this morning (a balmy 46° outside, 64° inside). We're a mere 10 days away from the NWS not bothering to warn us about frost/freeze because it's just expected. NWS Caribou rain/wind maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Beach cam in Surf City not impressive https://njbeachcams.com/central-new-jersey/surf-city-webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 (edited) Top gusts most of New England - nam euro and gfs I'm going with 19mph on my anemometer - that could be a stretch. Isais was 33mph. Edited September 15, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Top gusts for Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Top gusts for our Canadians. Sorry it's in knots still and no NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Cape May is almost glassy, and they still have lifeguards, but I don't know how their surf rolls. What waves they have, the spray blows off, so it's pretty breezy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Cape May is almost glassy, and they still have lifeguards, but I don't know how their surf rolls. What waves they have, the spray blows off, so it's pretty breezy. This view of Cape May shows a bit rougher compared to the one above. I was expecting to see @Burr with his surfboard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 @MaineJayand @Mainiac must have turned their fans towards the East with this one... 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Nice catch by the Metops While I'm on that page, here's a scan of wave heights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 Higgins Beach Cam. Scarborough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted September 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 15, 2023 Just got the TS warning on my phone. Interesting to find out what triggered the expansion of the warned area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Glad it’s going to just peter out as it reaches land. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 Just now, Mainiac said: Just got the TS warning on my phone. Interesting to find out what triggered the expansion of the warned area. A lot of hot air up in Maine? 😁 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 NAM showing a lot of heavy bands when first entering Maine. Also noticed NAM, GFS and a few others abandoned the hook west as it gets even with Long Island. NA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Trees are moving pretty good here. Its overcast, and only 61 out. But the wind isn't really making it to the surface, just tree level. Some airports and buoys from NJ to MA reporting winds in the 20s now with higher gusts. Georges Bank buoy is in the direct path. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 15, 2023 Still some lightning ahead of the center. Looks on track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now