Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[StretchCT]

NHC keeps it at 948mb and 115mph.  Recon is en route. Good disco in spoiler. Highlights include the mention of concentric eyewalls again.  This cyclone will be an interesting study when it comes to concentric eyewalls and ERCs.  It doesn't mention that it's going through an ERC though, but does mention that the inner eye is getting better organized and that dry air is present in the moats.  While weakening is expected as shear increases and water temps drop, they mention that the size of the storm might slow down that weakening.  No changes to track, other than to move Cape Cod out of the cone of uncertainty. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Lee continues to exhibit concentric eyewalls, but there are some dry 
slots between those features.  An SSMIS microwave image around 10Z 
showed that both eyewalls were open, however, recent infrared 
satellite images indicate that the inner eyewall appears to be 
becoming better organized during the past few hours.  The initial 
wind speed is held at 100 kt, but this is near the high end of the 
latest satellite intensity estimates.  The Air Force Hurricane 
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lee this afternoon, and the 
data they collect should provide a better assessment of the 
hurricane's intensity and structure.

Satellite images suggest that Lee seems to be beginning its 
northward turn on the western side of a subtropical ridge situated 
over the central Atlantic.  The latest initial motion estimate is 
345/6 kt.  Lee should gradually increase in forward speed while 
moving northward on the west side of the ridge during the next 
couple of days, taking the core of the system to the west of Bermuda 
Thursday and Thursday night.  The combination of a shortwave trough 
and a building ridge extending into Atlantic Canada could cause Lee 
to turn slightly to the left Friday night and Saturday, which will 
likely bring Lee close to southeastern New England before it reaches 
Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend.  Confidence is 
increasing in the forecast track, and the model spread is mostly 
along-track, associated with the system's forward speed/timing.  
Overall, little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, 
and it remains very near the various consensus models.

Lee is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into an environment 
of increasing vertical wind shear, slightly drier air, and over 
progressively cooler waters during the next few days.  However, the 
large size of the system suggests that the weakening process should 
be slow.  In addition, Lee is expected to grow in size as it gains 
latitude during the next few days.  The NHC intensity forecast is 
largely the same as the previous one and fairly close to the HCCA 
and IVCN models.  Regardless of the details, there is high 
confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New 
England Friday night and Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed 
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are 
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is 
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than 
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed 
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S East Coast, and Atlantic Canada into the weekend.

2. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind, coastal flooding, and rain
impacts from Lee in portions of New England and Atlantic Canada
beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend.  Watches 
will likely required for portions of these areas later today or 
tonight. Due to Lee's large size, hazards will extend well away 
from the center, and there will be little to no significance on 
exactly where the center reaches the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 26.4N  67.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 27.6N  67.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 29.6N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 31.8N  68.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 34.6N  67.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 37.9N  67.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 41.1N  67.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 46.1N  66.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  18/1200Z 52.1N  56.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[TLChip]

20 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Due to Lee's large size, hazards will extend well away from the center, and there will be little to no significance on exactly where the center reaches the coast.

Been in a flood watch after 3.5+ this weekend and a bit more the last 2 days. Currently IMBY I should have a dry weekend per Wunderground 

[Mainiac]

My mom was heading to Grand Manan Island this weekend as part of a Bay of Fundy end of summer trip. I told her it was probably best to postpone.

I’ll take the places you probably don’t want to be on Sunday night for $500, Alex. 😅

[StretchCT]

Latest vortex message - 30nm wide eye, open in the south. No mention of concentric eyewalls, but there kinda was a double wind max.  Top flight level wind 117mph and top sfmr was 86mph.  Very likely going to lose major status unless they find something soon.  Not much of a temp difference in and out of the eye, only 11c to 15c.

Also adding that the strongest flight level winds were 70 miles NE of the center fix.  So make sure we're telling people that the strongest winds may not be where the eye lands. 

Something I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is the lack of upper air support, like a jet streak, to help out.  When the cyclone reaches the front, there's usually some enhancing feature, but not so with this one.

 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 17:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 16:43:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.66N 67.56W
B. Center Fix Location: 424 statute miles (683 km) to the SSW (203°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,693m (8,835ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.15 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 6kts (From the SE at 7mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 16:28:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 82kts (From the NW at 94.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix at 16:24:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 75kts (86.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix at 16:54:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 134° at 102kts (From the SE at 117.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 17:07:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NE (44°) from the flight level center at 17:07:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (224°) from the flight level center

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[clm]

1 hour ago, Mainiac said:

My mom was heading to Grand Manan Island this weekend as part of a Bay of Fundy end of summer trip. I told her it was probably best to postpone.

I’ll take the places you probably don’t want to be on Sunday night for $500, Alex. 😅

I've been there during no storms and the tidal height change is awesome.  Can't imagine what it would be like with Lee up there.

[StretchCT]

Our player is on the field now.  12z models nearly all focused on the ME/NS border. Some adjustments east but nothing dramatic.  There will be minor shifts.  Speed of the cyclone and heights over the Atlantic are variables that are difficult to nail down.

[StretchCT]

Tropical Atlantic shows the double wind max on the east side, but not on the west side. Also shows the drops that are normally in the eyewall aren't near the highest winds. 

Wish TA didn't cut the scale off at 60kts. Can't be that hard to add a few more colors. 

TT shows you how far out the max winds are.  The scale makes it harder to see the dip in winds in the NE quad

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Up close and personal

[TLChip]

Core looks solid right now, will this just promote further wind expansion? 
 

 

 

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by TLChip

[buxtonian]

Well, I have started our "storm preparations." Filled the chainsaws with gas and filled up the portable generator. Checked that the generator would start -- it did. BTW, we have a solar electric system with powerwall backup. The generator is there in case things really go south. Filled the gas and diesel cans; I was surprised about the large number of town folks doing the same thing. Purchased new 16" and 18" chains for the saws. More preparation tomorrow.  You might think this is overkill but we had a TS a couple of days ago with winds of 40 mph -- took down a bunch of trees. If we get anything approaching 60 mph, it will be a mess around here.

[StretchCT]

For posterity. JMA still farthest west.

[1816]

18 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

For posterity. JMA still farthest west.

Maine Jay said something the other day about the right front quadrant.....

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Maine Jay said something the other day about the right front quadrant.....

Think of it like the warm sector in a baroclinic system. Winds tend to mix well and with the motion the eastern side will be the strongest winds so hopefully this can drop down to Cat 1 status before then but still wouldnt be surprised if it holds onto strength as it continues the north track. Would probably be much much more damaging if it was zooming by but this will surely have enough impact for anyone east of the track.

I hope it doesn't make landfall on coastal Maine but there really isn't anyone area that is better or worse in this scenario. Gotta watch out for a tornado risk too in that right front quadrant. Good to hear that folks are taking it seriously even if it ends up further east, better safe/prepared then sorry.

[MaineJay]

Hurricane and Tropical storm watches have been hoisted.

[StretchCT]

Latest microwave I could find

[MaineJay]

Some of these outer spiral arms aren't far from Nova Scotia, while the southern ones reach the Caribbean. Lee really expanded in size.

[Wayuphere]

In the middle of jury duty this week and next in Bangor.  Told them today expect me to be unshaven and needing a shower come Monday morning.😳  Long duration heavy winds will make a mess in my neck of the woods.

[StretchCT]

[MainelySnow]

2 hours ago, buxtonian said:

Well, I have started our "storm preparations." Filled the chainsaws with gas and filled up the portable generator. Checked that the generator would start -- it did. BTW, we have a solar electric system with powerwall backup. The generator is there in case things really go south. Filled the gas and diesel cans; I was surprised about the large number of town folks doing the same thing. Purchased new 16" and 18" chains for the saws. More preparation tomorrow.  You might think this is overkill but we had a TS a couple of days ago with winds of 40 mph -- took down a bunch of trees. If we get anything approaching 60 mph, it will be a mess around here.

Been doing the same. Hubby is filling up the gas cans, and I'm getting some food prepped in case power goes out. At least I'll have the gas cooktop, or really worst case, fire up the woodstove. You know who ranks in my house - I've got the dog's food (he eats home made) already prepped through next week 🙂

[StretchCT]

Mission 27 surprising me with a 123 flight level wind. Pressure still holding. 

[StretchCT]

I like this map. Obviously it could shift a bit. Helping out with lower winds is no huge high in front or behind. 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by StretchCT

[LiveWire_13]

20 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I like this map. Obviously it could shift a bit. Helping out with lower winds is no huge high in front or behind. 

 

This map illustrates just how frustrating this storm is for Long Island. I have spent days tracking, trying to figure out what/if I need to prepare with animals, kid, house before too late. Instead, 48 hours out, I get 15mph winds with potentially 50mph not far away and breezy the other way.

 

Picked a hell of a time to start a $15k outside project.

[StretchCT]

23 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

This map illustrates just how frustrating this storm is for Long Island. I have spent days tracking, trying to figure out what/if I need to prepare with animals, kid, house before too late. Instead, 48 hours out, I get 15mph winds with potentially 50mph not far away and breezy the other way.

 

Picked a hell of a time to start a $15k outside project.

Not to different than picking the rain/snow line or the 1-3 vs 6-12 line 

[LiveWire_13]

40 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Not to different than picking the rain/snow line or the 1-3 vs 6-12 line 

Never said it was. Just frustrated being in no-man's land. Would love a clear answer, but mother nature rarely works in absolutes.

[clm]

1 minute ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Never said it was. Just frustrated being in no-man's land. Would love a clear answer, but mother nature rarely works in absolutes.

Same here.  Want to head to Mass. this Saturday but not sure if its going to rain or not.