Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[Neoncyclone]

 

948.3 mb extrapolated pressure, probably going to see 950-952 mb dropsonde, even with the messy core Lee is pretty steady-state. It's been sitting at 953-948mb for almost 2 days now. 

[StretchCT]

Vortex message says 950mb.  The eye is no longer considered concentric.  It is, however, elliptical and large.  Measuring 48nm x 32nm.

One of the drops had a max wind of 144mph, so there still is some oomph there.  But the max surface winds on the vort message were 104mph and 90mph in and out. 

It does seem to finally be organizing.  A 30-40nm wide eye is big, but not crazy like a 90nm wide eye.  SSTs are still 28-29 which isn't 30 but still capable of fueling.  I could see this being a borderline 3 or even getting back to 120-125mph winds if it continues to improve and doesn't get hit with the shear that is imminent.  

Flight pattern has a 125 mile range on the diagonal passes, and the 60+ flight level winds are present the entire distance outside of the eye. So that's 250 miles of near hurricane winds at flight level.  The drop at the NW wind was 56mph at the surface, 75mph not much further up.  SE corner had surface winds of 59 sfmr. 

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Really slowed down.  From the last center fix to this one was about 90 mins. (17:47 to 19:18) The distance was under 5 miles

The angle of the satellite could be throwing me off, but I'm wondering if it's tilted.

ADT is up again to a 6 across the board

Edited September 12, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Also noticing no lightning in the eye. Haven't all day.

[StretchCT]

Vortex message:  MSLP down to 946 (was 950 last pass), eye closed, circular and 40nm wide. Highest sfmr winds 101mph max flight level 116mph.  What does the NHC do?  946 is a pressure usually associated with a strong Cat 3 storm (Cat 4 usually starts around 945), but the flight and sfmr winds don't support Cat 3.  The column winds do though with spot winds in the 140's still. 

Spoiler

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Name: Lee
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 19:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.50N 66.28W
B. Center Fix Location: 422 statute miles (679 km) to the N (358°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,646m (8,681ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 1kts (From the SSE at 1mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 88kts (101.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix at 19:11:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 100kts (From the SE at 115.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix at 19:09:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 85kts (97.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 19:23:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 97kts (From the NW at 111.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 19:24:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 17:54:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (218°) from the flight level center
Ragged Eye: Was observed

 

[TLChip]

I think he’s about done gaining any strength or gaining a bigger hurricane wind field. Less favorable conditions ahead.

 

Having those 2 eye walls fighting each other seemed to hamper any rapid intensification. 

[StretchCT]

Recon appears to be flying out of the storm, perhaps finished for this trip.  The breadth of hurricane winds at least at flight level is over 240 miles.

[StretchCT]

WXTwitter bringing receipts on this one.  Nice analysis.

 

[StretchCT]

Latest microwave

[StretchCT]

Bernie called for the storm to trend west in a snippet I saw.  His thinking is that it's moving so slowly now it will miss the trough. Another post I put up had a look at how there's an east bias at this point with similar systems.    

NHC has the cone with spread of the Cape to NS - keep in mind that the outer edges of the cone represent where the center may go, not the affects from it.  The Cape to NS is about 240 miles. The current width of the hurricane force wind field (flight level) is about 240 miles. So TS force winds could easily be 200 miles from the center. Bear in mind that by the time it gets to New England or Nova Scotia, it may be at most a 75mph extratropical storm, but likely more in the 50-65mph range.  So the wind damage would be typical for a nor'easter, but with leaves on the trees and probably soggy ground. 

I'm surprised at the eastern extent of the cone given the lack of model support.

 

EPS trend with spread west.

GFS ens

or another way to look at it

The last point is how slowly this crawls one it gets to the Gulf of Maine.  As Levi pointed out in his video, that's going to help weaken the storm, but as he didn't point out (maybe cause it's obvious) is that instead of 3-6 hours of Hurricane or TS winds, there's 12-24 hrs of TS winds/gusts.

Or two days if you're on the Cape and the Euro is correct.

[TLChip]

In 3-4 months we'll be rooting for the tuck. This storm, not so much.

HAFS-A, bringing high winds to the highest elevations in the NE. 850 = +-4800FT iirc.

Edited September 12, 2023 by TLChip

[Mainiac]

We saw winds similar to what what is being modeled here this past winter, but the trees had no leaves and the ground was concrete.  Definitely going to fill some gas cans and get some water stored away. I already know what tree I’m losing should the GFS verify, so I’ll just have the chainsaw at the ready. 

[1816]

12 minutes ago, TLChip said:

In 3-4 months we'll be rooting for the tuck. This storm, not so much.

HAFS-A, bringing high winds to the highest elevations in the NE. 850 = +-4800FT iirc.

Mainejay and the other mainiacs: this one can just go tuck itself. 

[StretchCT]

Sunset loop

[StretchCT]

Slow and looks like more dry air got in

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

A lot of models ticked west. Not dramatically but noticeably 

GFS ticked west at 18z. NAM slowed down. Euro ticked west.

Icon trended west.

JMA looks very similar to yesterdays run, not a good solution for New England as it just unwinds over Mass.

Spoiler

 

HAFS A trended west

Spoiler

 

HAfs B sped up, little west too

Spoiler

 

HRWF sped up and ticked west at 18

Spoiler

Hurricane models tell a different story

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[Burr]

Forward speed almost non-existent

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

A lot of models ticked west. Not dramatically but noticeably 

GFS ticked west at 18z. NAM slowed down. Euro ticked west.

Icon trended west.

JMA looks very similar to yesterdays run, not a good solution for New England as it just unwinds over Mass.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

HAFS A trended west

  Reveal hidden contents

 

HAfs B sped up, little west too

  Reveal hidden contents

 

HRWF sped up and ticked west at 18

  Reveal hidden contents

Hurricane models tell a different story

I'll be honest, I do not believe the EC is out of the woods

[LiveWire_13]

54 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I'll be honest, I do not believe the EC is out of the woods

Considering what happened with other storms like Isiais, feels like we won't know until 24-36 hours out. Unfortunately, that leaves little/no time for preparing/executing plans.

[StretchCT]

Good morning. Lee somehow is still a Cat 3 with 115mph winds and 948mb pressure. Not moving much. Core has issues again. 

 

 

I like the TT loop but it didn't capture sunrise or lightning.  But it does show how fast the clouds are moving closer to the surface compared to the top.

[StretchCT]

Lotta dry air right outside the eye.

[StretchCT]

NHC is recognizing the western bend in the global models and has adjusted the track west into the Gulf of Maine. Looking at the models, most are now concentrated on the Maine/Canada border with the low making it into the Gulf of Maine.  These 6z runs include the globals and the hurricane models:  GFS, HAFS-A, HWRF, HMON all right by the border. HAFS B and Euro further west and closer to the Cape

CMC still lands on Nova Scotia and has been the farthest east. Icon abandoned its New England hit and takes it up the Bay of Fundy. UKIE hits western NS. NAM looks like it wants to hit the western side of NS too. 

  

U-ALB has a the site where you can check each models trend (to 0z) and all but the Euro are west.

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al132023/

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Was wondering if another ERC as eye is contracted.  Definitely moving north

Last Microwave, but a while ago

Edited September 13, 2023 by StretchCT

[1816]

I've never seen a hurricane lollygag this much in the open ocean. Usually when they stop and sit in one spot it's over land somewhere, flooding biblically. I think the disturbance of the fuel was a big factor here as far as it not taking off again when the shear let up. 

[so_whats_happening]

Shame it never got to blossom again, RI happened and then shear happened didn't get much of a chance to really protect itself from that shear. Probably for the best though having a cat 1/2 still hitting Maine/ Canada is still going to cause some rough conditions especially east of the track. It looks to be doing a bit of extra-tropical transition now and the wind field will continue to spread out.

Wouldn't be surprised if a place or two reports over a 100mph gust out of this in Canada.