Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, TLChip said:

Lee's got some time but its ticking.

Lol nothing like being surrounded by shear. Yea it would be within the next 24 hours if we get anymore pressure drops or wind increases. More so than anything the wind field has definitely expanded which is not a good thing see how close this is to Cape Cod.

[so_whats_happening]

Oh wow that may be one hell of an eye if it ever clears up

 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Oh wow that may be one hell of an eye if it ever clears up

 

I figured out how to capture the mimic.  It goes so fast and you can't pause it, but you can if you put it in a video editing program

This was close to the end

Just so happens there's a microwave image of it too

And here's the most recent from 23:45 which I'm confused about since it's 23:30 now.

Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I figured out how to capture the mimic.  It goes so fast and you can't pause it, but you can if you put it in a video editing program

This was close to the end

Just so happens there's a microwave image of it too

And here's the most recent from 23:45 which I'm confused about since it's 23:30 now.

Nice capture. Also gotta love timezones since this one is right on the edge.

[TLChip]

It's too bad we're missing a couple good frames of development here. Look at the outflow on the south now.

Edited September 12, 2023 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

Inner eye doesn't want to give up.

[TLChip]

GOES is awesome.

[Iceresistance]

I would be so confused if Lee gets over 135 mph (very confused if over 150) with this structure.

[Burr]

I feel like the inner eye is finally getting isolated on IR from the (huge) outer eye.  2/3 surrounded.

 

[Neoncyclone]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I would be so confused if Lee gets over 135 mph (very confused if over 150) with this structure.

Annular hurricanes with large eyes can still be pretty intense, for example, Hurricane and later Typhoon Dora earlier this year. I think it got up to 145mph while being annular. 

That being said you're probably right given the current structure and impending shear. Would take quite a bit of overnight organization to see a Lee that looked like this. 

[MaineJay]

44 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Annular hurricanes with large eyes can still be pretty intense, for example, Hurricane and later Typhoon Dora earlier this year. I think it got up to 145mph while being annular. 

That being said you're probably right given the current structure and impending shear. Would take quite a bit of overnight organization to see a Lee that looked like this. 

It's moving so slow that upwelling might become a mitigating factor.

[Sentinel]

6 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It's moving so slow that upwelling might become a mitigating factor.

Shouldn't you be asleep? 😅

[clm]

2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Shouldn't you be asleep? 😅

He's going to sleep as soon as you're going to sleep as soon as i'm going to sleep as soon as he's going to sleep.  🤪

[MaineJay]

3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Shouldn't you be asleep? 😅

Yes, should be, but allergies are keeping me up, so, here we are. Peeking at the models.

[Sentinel]

3 minutes ago, clm said:

He's going to sleep as soon as you're going to sleep as soon as i'm going to sleep as soon as he's going to sleep.  🤪

Jokes on all ya brah - I don't sleep

#Westworld

[MaineJay]

Probably gonna have to fill up some gas cans later in the week, can always just dump it in a vehicle if not needed.  As long as it doesn't plow to my west, I'm not too concerned.

ECMWF OP seems to have the most impactful storm.

 

[MaineJay]

Lazy Lee, taking his time.

Loop covers 2.5 days.

[TLChip]

Shear all around still

 

[MaineJay]

Last week dried things out, but I've already got 3.4" of rain this week, with more to come. If, and it's still a big if, Lee brings heavy rain, it won't take a ton to cause problems in some areas with saturated ground.

[NWOhioChaser]

Lee doesn’t have a really impressive structure this morning. Lopsided and not full. Shear really digging into it. At least the west direction has ceased. Have a hard time believing it’ll strengthen much more, but the wind field has expanded so that’s a thing now.

[TLChip]

Anyone got a microwave pass this morning? 
 

Looks like we can start to see Lee pushing up against unfavorable shear. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

Pretty much the same story today as yesterday.  Maybe the wind field expanded, peak winds lessened a little, but pressure is still upper 940's/950. These are the peak values for the drops (lows for  pressure obviously)

And vortex messages. Surface winds way down, flight level pretty steady. 

 

[StretchCT]

It's pretty slow. I don't think it looks that bad on the edges, but the core continues to be a mess.

Shear values are currently neutral, and expected to become favorable. Surprising given the map, but storms sometimes generate their own shear with their outflow. Looking at the cirrus coming off of it, the shear is likely mid-level again. 

Looking closer in and using the cirrus filter, the cirrus is expanding in all directions. But the center is a mess. Hard to believe it's still the same dry air that popped in there that's causing this.  Be a good case study for an ERC though. 

 

Last Vort message (13:38z) had the outer eyewall at 45nm wide and inner at 32.  The 10:43Z message was at 80/45, so it does seem to be contracting as noted by the NHC earlier today.  But an 80nm wide eye is like 95miles wide, so bigger than RI. That's huge and seems to be completely unmanageable.  The 60+kt flight winds were  up to 140miles from the center. The N and W sides of the flight path didn't experience anything less than 60kts, so its hard to tell how far out they extended in that direction and the furthest out they flew to the west was 99 nm.   The AXBT (ocean sensor) values were 28 and 29c. 

NHC disco mentions the outer eyewall trying to take over, but fragments of the inner eye are leaving the eye obscured.  My hunch, just a non professional hunch, is that the inner eye fragments have been the cause of the structural issues.  Normally they just go away, but this storm, maybe do to size, can't finish them off. 

Spoiler

Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

GOES-16 satellite and radar images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
indicate that Lee is trying to consolidate into one large eyewall,
but the eye remains obscured with fragments of the old eyewall
structures.  Peak 700-mb flight-level winds were about 110 kt, 0.5
km radar estimates were near 121 kt and surface SFMR estimates were
about 90 kt, which could be under sampled with such a large
radius of maximum winds.  The initial wind speed is held at 100 kt
as a compromise of the aircraft estimates.

Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (300/5 kt), with
mid-level ridging established to the north and east of the
hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the
next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern
United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result,
Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during
the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance
envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of
the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is
forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm
is likely to bring wind impacts to the island on Thursday,
prompting the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm
Watch.  The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS
and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too
early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches
North America.

No significant change in strength is expected in the near-term with
Lee due to its current structure and large wind field.  Going
forward, the large hurricane appears likely to begin upwelling
cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it will encounter
the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes.
Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek. Later, the
aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger deep-layer
shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move over
significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream.
As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days 4-5, along
with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite the
forecast weakening, it is important to note that the expanding wind 
field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high
surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the island.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend.  However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 24.3N  65.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.8N  66.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 25.9N  67.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 27.4N  67.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 29.4N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 31.6N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 34.3N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 40.7N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 45.3N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

Microwave pass missed it. 

 

[StretchCT]

Recon is in, interested in what they say about the structure now.

 

They are at 15,000 feet and in the western wall?

Edited September 12, 2023 by StretchCT