Admin MaineJay Posted September 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 11, 2023 Hoping this is the end of these westward adjustments, and we see the storm stay offshore. Last 6 EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 11, 2023 Many EPS members bring gusts to 40-50mph to my area, but not a lot of rain. Long range NAM really hangs up the front in the northeast, and creates a bit of a PRE, and extrapolated out, would likely bring a healthy dose of rain to parts of New England. You can see how the ECMWF and GFS push the moisture out, but still impact the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) BTW, hurricanes and tropical storms at night are terrifying, especially when the power is out, it's pitch black, and the only light is from transformers popping and you hear trees constantly cracking. I was fully expecting to have to update, but I guess not. As previously mentioned, some dry air got in and has to be resolved. Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Hurricane models now have landfall in their range, or at least close to it. 6z and 12z versions. While I feel good about tossing COTI, the HFBI is the HAFS-B which did the best for Idalia, so that's likely in play. Slight shift west in the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Last 24 hours of MIMIC, Lee looked really good briefly yesterday and is clearly back on the struggle bus for a while again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Latest vortex summaries probably don't change NHC opinion much. Its firing up some pretty cold cloud tops in the northern semicircle now. edit: NHC didn't change anything other than lower pressure to 948. They did mention concentric eyewalls, which recon confirmed. Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 New eyewall complete 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Pretty good NW component over the last several hours. Good to see and hopefully it continues and we start seeing a more north direction the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 more moisture now, still trying to move that dry air pocket out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 11, 2023 38 minutes ago, StretchCT said: New eyewall complete That is a beautiful blowup around the eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Global models certainly showing a minor Sandy-like hook to the west as Lee approaches the northeast. 12z GFS doesn't make US landfall in Maine, but awfully close...brushing the coast before drifting into the Bay of Fundy. Canadian doesn't quite turn as hard. Interested to see what Euro shows. Many moons and model cycles to go though before he makes his final approach. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Recon is heading into this now from the NW. Lightning erupting again. ADT jumped back to 5.9. Weakening flag is off Adj T is around a Cat 4. Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Recon is heading into this now from the NW. Lightning erupting again. ADT jumped back to 5.9. Weakening flag is off Adj T is around a Cat 4. The storm looks the best it has in quite some time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: The storm looks the best it has in quite some time It's hard to tell on the sat but it looks like the outer ring has dissipated and the focus is on the newly formed eyewall. Then again, there might be two wind maxima - have to wait to see what recon reports. The plane hasn't made it to the inner eye yet. Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Then again, there might be two wind maxima Well, there's technically one maxima... But instead of dropping off, it dip and increases again before dropping off. So it does look like there's still two eyewalls. Surprised the outer one was the stronger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Lees trying, pinhole possibly forming? Looks like he finally got that dry air out. Edited September 11, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) MSLP on the hdobs is messed up but the dropsonde had 949 on it and the SW eyewall drop had peak wind of 135mph at 909mb Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 11, 2023 47 minutes ago, TLChip said: Lees trying, pinhole possibly forming? Looks like he finally got that dry air out. The outflow is really beginning to blossom once again. Look at the tops forming over Puerto Rico and the Islands to the East as well over the Carribean. We'll see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Vortex message 949mb Outer eye 68NM wide and closed Inner eye 22NM wide and open in the SE 120mph max flight wind. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 18:32Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Lee Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 17 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 18:01:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.50N 63.93W B. Center Fix Location: 378 statute miles (609 km) to the NNE (21°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,662m (8,734ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 175° at 9kts (From the S at 10mph) F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 87kts (100.1mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix at 17:50:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 63° at 104kts (From the ENE at 119.7mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) of center fix at 17:49:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 18:11:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 231° at 96kts (From the SW at 110.5mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 18:12:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft) R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) from the flight level center at 17:49:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Looking like's he's back into buzzsaw mode...was it due to shear yesterday that he got a little ragged looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Let’s see what it does tonight. Could be a surprise up its sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 GFS Trend - pretty tight UKIE Trend, also pretty tight CMC consistent on Nova Scotia HAFS A looks problematic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Mission 17 hasn't found impressive max winds so far. There could be equipment problems as it's not reporting surface pressure. Highest flight level 105kts, highest sfmr 84kts. The expanse of flight level winds over hurricane strength is impressive, basically all the oranges. 85kts for a 949 pressure is light. Top wind on the sonde to the NE of the center was only 110mph. SE quadrant a respectable 135mph. Latest vortex kept it at 949. Still double eyewall, inner one open in south. Outer closed per note. 32 and 64nm wide. Dropsonde in the eye didn't report wind. Max flight level wind 123mph. Lightning in the NE quad. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 20:12Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Lee Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 17 Observation Number: 13 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:42:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.61N 64.03W B. Center Fix Location: 383 statute miles (617 km) to the NNE (20°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,657m (8,717ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA F. Eye Character: Open in the south G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix at 19:32:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 107kts (From between the SE and SSE at 123.1mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix at 19:32:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 78kts (89.8mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 19:50:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 316° at 97kts (From the NW at 111.6mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix at 19:51:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 19:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED, LTG INNER EYEWALL NE QUAD CENTER DRP NO SFC WND LST WND 014 METERS 190 DEGREES AT 6 KTS. Edited September 11, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said: Let’s see what it does tonight. Could be a surprise up its sleeve One thing that absolutely won't surprise me, and that's having go harder than what the forecast calls for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Lee's got some time but its ticking. Edited September 11, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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