Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 Euro trend doesn't inspire confidence. Last four landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 Last four GFS Ensemble landfalls (0z/12z). It's trending negatively but at least it's a trend and only hundred miles or so off each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) If you only saw this frame you'd think there's an eye. But yeah, it looks like a pocket of dry air. That can also mess things up too until it's either incorporated in the eye or spit out. Latest vortex message supports a 100kt strength. Eye is closed, circular and 30nm in diameter. Pressure has dropped to 956 from 962 this morning. So it could be starting to organize better. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:48Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: Lee Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 12 Observation Number: 03 A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:29:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.95N 61.35W B. Center Fix Location: 392 statute miles (631 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,728m (8,950ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 4kts (From the NW at 5mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (108.2mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:25:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 312° at 80kts (From the NW at 92.1mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 99kts (113.9mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:34:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 143° at 112kts (From the SE at 128.9mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:35:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (47°) from the flight level center at 17:35:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (227°) from the flight level center Edited September 10, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 Pressure on sonde now 954. Max column winds 146mph. These are the highest (lowest mb) vortex messages. Mission 12 is current with the last vort message at 3:05pm. Flight level winds strongest since mission 5. Surface winds strongest since mission 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 It still looks like it wants to clear out an eye, but it could also be dry air is funneling in as you can see on wv. But objectively per my last post there is strengthening. To be honest that dry swirl into the center isn't actually that dry. Maybe it's less problematic than I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 10, 2023 26 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It still looks like it wants to clear out an eye, but it could also be dry air is funneling in as you can see on wv. But objectively per my last post there is strengthening. To be honest that dry swirl into the center isn't actually that dry. Maybe it's less problematic than I think. If convection can fire off in all quadrants we may have ourselves some deepening and strengthening of winds. Core really got itself together just again need that convection to fully engulf the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: But objectively per my last post there is strengthening. Lee has continued to become better organized today. The eye has become more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery this afternoon, and reconnaissance aircraft reports indicate that the eye has contracted today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is currently investigating Lee has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 112 kt and SFMR winds of 106 kt. Near the conclusion of the earlier NOAA P-3 aircraft mission an eyewall dropsonde measured mean boundary layer winds in the lowest 150 m of the sonde of 117 kt, which supported surface winds of around 100 kt. Based on the improved satellite presentation and the recent SFMR wind report, Lee's initial intensity has been raised to 105 kt. Sunset and eye Once that eye popped the ADT skyrocketed. Raw T hitting 6.8 while 6.9 is Cat 5 territory. Edited September 10, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Going to have a healthy-looking Lee for the first time since being the Category 5 monster it was earlier this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) 18z GFS looking like the 12z Icon It's not devastation though, these are max gusts and qpf Edited September 10, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Soooooo close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) Top winds on dropsonde is now 155mph at 917mb (1300 feet) and surface was 124mph. HDOB mslp estimates are now in the 940s again. Edited September 10, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 GFS ensemble is concerning. Trend below Latest drop was 952mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Okay, weather guys, should I begin storm preparations in Buxton Maine? Buying beer, wine and toilet paper 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, buxtonian said: Okay, weather guys, should I begin storm preparations in Buxton Maine? Buying beer, wine and toilet paper It's not like you won't use it anyway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, buxtonian said: Okay, weather guys, should I begin storm preparations in Buxton Maine? Buying beer, wine and toilet paper Sounds like you got the essentials covered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Not surprised we’re seeing increased wind speeds based on the organization/presentation. Definitely seeing the cold cloud tops wrapped up around an eye again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Incoming pass from the hunters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) I think the thread title could use an update… Officially 954mb | 120mph as of 5pm or 952mb | 124mph if we go by the latest data above. Edited September 11, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 948.5mb on the latest pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, buxtonian said: Okay, weather guys, should I begin storm preparations in Buxton Maine? Buying beer, wine and toilet paper https://youtube.com/shorts/i6zaVYWLTkU?si=q5haE3sQJm9_cH61 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Burr said: 948.5mb on the latest pass 948.1mb in the next frame before re-entering the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Latest drop 950. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2023&storm=Lee&product=sonde&mission=14&agency=NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Latest drop 950. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2023&storm=Lee&product=sonde&mission=14&agency=NOAA Who can update the thread title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Burr said: Who can update the thread title? I just did, but to the last official update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 Giants not looking very good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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