Admin MaineJay Posted September 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 9, 2023 Let's call that 12z ECMWF run an outlier for now. 🤐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 9, 2023 GFS ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 Looking better. Raw T is up too. Had been down to 4.2, now back up to 4.9 and signaling there's an eye Got a thundershower moving through, outdoor work suspended. Big drops of which one went directly into my ear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Let's call that 12z ECMWF run an outlier for now. 🤐 Unsee....thanks for not posting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, MaineJay said: GFS ECMWF I posted about that back on Tuesday with the Euro showing it much further south than GFS. I know not all models are going to be equal, but usually they differ in tracks of east to west and some north to south but not off by much of each other. So far on this storm, Euro shows that Lee is stopping for coffee as it turns northward and slows down and finally gets up to my area a few days later than GFS shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Let's call that 12z ECMWF run an outlier for now. 🤐 Did not see that. Nope.👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 Here's where I get skeptical. CMC doesn't usually deepen like the Euro or GFS. And the Ops usually don't get the intensity correct and are usually underdone. But the differences between the 3 on Tuesday really make me want to toss the Euro. Euro has it around 917mb at 23N/66W 18z on Tuesday. GFS is 953mb 24.6N/67.3W. Ukie is 957 at 23/66. Nam is at 960 at 24/67.3 HWRF is 946mb at 24N/66W. HMON is 937mb at 24.4/N.67.7W. HAFS-A is 937mb at 24.3N/65.5W. HAFS-B is 929mb at 23.8N/66.6W. So the Ukie and Euro have it the furthest south. The euro's intensity is backed up by nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Unsee....thanks for not posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: D6 ECMWF - GFS Comp. I do worry about this being rather slow right now and weaker. Definitely looking like it misses the trough now but the trough is able to knock the ridge down just a bit to still allow the northern pull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 (edited) Since there's still thunder out, I'll keep looking at the Euro to see what changed. And I found it. At 150, there isn't much difference, at least the features are in the same grid. 12z on left, 0z on right That's the last frame that is similar. Lee doesn't change all that much at 180. But the trough in Canada is way stronger and faster. And it pulls Lee into it. Edited September 9, 2023 by StretchCT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 (edited) So how far off is the Euro? This is from Tropatlantic. You can play around with the different models. I did cut this off at 5 days since the hurricane models only go that far out. EGR2 is the Ukie. ECMO is the euro op and ecme is the euro ensemble. AVN is GFS. CMC curves east after this. It's really after this point that matters though and I can't show that with these models, but none are really out of line. Edited September 9, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 9, 2023 Goodnight Lee 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 Which one here is not like the others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Pressure is definitely dropping this A.M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 10, 2023 It finally shed the old eyewall lets see what it can do. Shear is still around so it won't rocket away like last time but should be able to get to upper end cat 3 maybe low cat 4. It should technically be turning by Monday so fingers crossed the ridge can get knocked down like modeled. E Maine still has a solid rain and maybe TS wind threat landfall is Nova Scotia at this point. Looks like the Cape Cod region should get in a little fun as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 10, 2023 Has he moved in the last 2 hours? Might be trying to clear out his eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Umm, 12z GFS??? Head fake I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 On 9/8/2023 at 9:39 PM, StretchCT said: The coldest cloudtops are on the south side of the storm Yet the lightest winds are also on the south side of the storm. This is something I'd love an expert to explain. Dr. Cowan responded to my question on this. What I was missing was that the shear was mid level, not upper level. When it's upper level shear, you'll see the cloud tops blow off and the storm tilt over. But what is happening is that the shear is acting as a barrier, and my guess is that similar to a cold front pushing the warm air up, the mid level shear pushes the air up forming higher and colder cloudtops. Dr. Cowan mentioned that the convection rotates to the left of the shear vector. Then as @Uscg Astpointed out there has to be a collapse of those clouds which brings strong winds down, which of course would have warmer cloud tops but be windier. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 21 hours ago, MaineJay said: Let's call that 12z ECMWF run an outlier for now. 🤐 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 10, 2023 Too many western solutions in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted September 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, Wayuphere said: Umm, 12z GFS??? Head fake I hope. This is why these are fascinating. 12z ICON, whoa. Trend CMC trend below. BTW, the CMC is really slow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Has he moved in the last 2 hours? Might be trying to clear out his eye. On IR, it looks like a dry air pocket repeatedly rotates into the center from the east side. If the towers can wrap around and block that from happening again (and they might), then we may finally see a restrengthening. Lee is a great example that conditions must be near-perfect to see the rapid strengthening we saw last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 (edited) 57 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This is why these are fascinating. 12z ICON, whoa. Trend CMC trend below. BTW, the CMC is really slow. Correction, did not notice ICON was two different runs. I'm still coming out of my covid fog, so please forgive me. Edited September 10, 2023 by clm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Has he moved in the last 2 hours? Might be trying to clear out his eye. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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