Cat 5 Lee | peak 165 mph 926 mb | post-tropical

[StretchCT]

5 minutes ago, 1816 said:

That didnt look like any erc I've ever seen before. 

I know right?

recon with a huge jump in pressure to 942

[Sentinel]

You can see the shear on the SW side and the flattening of the storm to the W/SW. Maybe the pros see an ERC starting, but I see shear. 

Now, it is possible that the shear can force an ERC. 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said:

You can see the shear on the SW side and the flattening of the storm to the W/SW. Maybe the pros see an ERC starting, but I see shear. 

Now, it is possible that the shear can force an ERC. 

Those MIMIC use the microwave shots, and we are only getting them every 12 hours at best, so there's a lot of interpolation going on. 12 hours and a lot can change with a TC  developing like Lee has. A few years ago there were 5 satellites, and, now there's only 2 so a lot less data to give a fuller picture.

Looks healthy now.

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[TLChip]

Not a pinhole eye but you can really see the gravity waves from the convection spinning around. 

[StretchCT]

https://x.com/53rdwrs/status/1700142461404827971?s=46&t=IUb_brFy2EI-khwn_GJiMA

Edited September 8, 2023 by StretchCT

[ak9971]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

https://x.com/53rdwrs/status/1700142461404827971?s=46&t=IUb_brFy2EI-khwn_GJiMA

What a great video. Love that you can see the stadium effect of the eyewall as the lightning flashes.

[mikeysed]

Wonder if Lee can hit 180. What is the strongest wind speeds we've seen coming out of a path like this, this far east?

[StretchCT]

Looks better, at least the core does  

 

[StretchCT]

NHC suggesting it’s peaked. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/081454.shtml

[LiveWire_13]

RN, the power of the storm dwarfs the actual size. What would increase the diameter of Lee? Sandy was a tropical storm (mixed with other components) when it hit, but that storm was so wide they felt impacts in the mid-west.

[TLChip]

Normally they grow as they go up in latitude, also ERCs can cause wind expansion, after they lose the warm core characters, post tropical, extratropical (front merge?) etc. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by TLChip

[Burr]

You really see the west side losing the fight to the shear.  Compare to last night…

 

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Burr

[TLChip]

It’s losing a bit to shear but it’s still got some high tops, if shear relaxes a bit again while it’s over open water (I have not looked at forecast tracks) it should continue to bounce between 4-5 I would think. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by TLChip

[Sentinel]

36 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

RN, the power of the storm dwarfs the actual size. What would increase the diameter of Lee? Sandy was a tropical storm (mixed with other components) when it hit, but that storm was so wide they felt impacts in the mid-west.

The reason Sandy became so large in diameter was because of transition from a heat fueled core to a baroclynic fueled storm. However, for hurricanes to increase in diameter, it needs not only the warm water for fuel, it also needs a moist environment and low shear.. But to address your question more directly:

Growing in size, and here I will assume you are referring to the wind radii, has a lot to do with physics. So when an eye wall replacement cycle takes place, it allows the storm's energy to be distributed over a wider area and here's why: After the cycle, that energy remains. But let's go a touch deeper. Wind moves from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. So the smaller the eye, the higher the pressure gradient difference is over a relatively small area and therefore the stronger the winds become. As the storm grows in size, it continually allows the lower pressure to permeate throughout the storm. This is not scientifically completely accurate, but, it is enough for outside of research studies and to explain. So, as the pressure lowers throughout the storm, higher pressure seeks to move towards the center of the storm to fill it and equalize the pressure difference. As this happens your winds and radius of winds expand. This is why you can have a storm that has more overall energy and lower maximum wind speeds.

[Sentinel]

5 minutes ago, Burr said:

You really see the west side losing the fight to the shear.  Compare to last night…

 

 

 

Good. 

[TLChip]

Burr you got some water vapor loops? 

[Burr]

None from last night, but here is current conditions for RGB water vapor loop and IR.

[1816]

Where's mj with the microwave. Another erc?

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, Burr said:

None from last night, but here is current conditions for RGB water vapor loop and IR.

You can see the outflow on the west side starting to get itself together again. The northern outflow is not being as nearly impacted as it was last night. Shear looks to be more southerly now and weaker cloud tops to the west from storms aren't moving nearly as quick ahead of the system but this will probably nudge this more NW in track for the time being.

As long as structure is still good inside the storm it should be able to get itself together later tonight into tomorrow in an even more lower sheared environment.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

You can see the outflow on the west side starting to get itself together again. The northern outflow is not being as nearly impacted as it was last night. Shear looks to be more southerly now and weaker cloud tops to the west from storms aren't moving nearly as quick ahead of the system but this will probably nudge this more NW in track for the time being.

As long as structure is still good inside the storm it should be able to get itself together later tonight into tomorrow in an even more lower sheared environment.

On that note it has definitely taken a beating in the core but still there.

[MaineJay]

46 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Where's mj with the microwave. Another erc?

Latest microwave is not straightforward, as it only got half of the storm. Might be open on the NE side.

Whatever it's doing, it does look like it's going almost due west for the last few frames.

 

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Latest microwave is not straightforward, as it only got half of the storm. Might be open on the NE side.

Whatever it's doing, it does look like it's going almost due west for the last few frames.

 

Yea NE eye wall is pretty much gone if we get a surge of storms tonight with a weakening of shear it could better rebuild the core of the storm again probably go down to low end 4 upper 3 while it figures things out. If this doesn't and takes longer we definitely expand the wind field but probably do not hit the same levels of top winds like before when things get back to a cleared eye.

[clm]

18 hours ago, 1816 said:

I'm putting in my prediction for 195. Only because I'm too chicken to say 200. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by clm

[1816]

1 minute ago, clm said:

My prediction aged like hot milk

[Tater]

18 minutes ago, 1816 said:

My prediction aged like hot milk

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra