ENSO - El Nino & La Nina Discussions

[StLweatherjunkie]

The subsurface looks like a nearly mature La Nina:

Yup, the El Nino is definitely fading as cooler waters surface in Nino 1+2:

Edited May 26 by StLweatherjunkie

[so_whats_happening]

Definitely some serious movement in the ENSO department over the last month. The PDO is some of the lowest values we have seen and sitting at -2.97 for the month of May. Ill get together a subsurface change for about the past month then. Forecasts are for moderate but RONI (relative ONI) may be pushing strong status come fall. The RONI compared to ONI for the El Nino was ~1.4C versus 2.0C respectively. So we are seeing some decent disconnect occur from mid latitudes and the tropical regions.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 6/5/2024 at 7:38 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Definitely some serious movement in the ENSO department over the last month. The PDO is some of the lowest values we have seen and sitting at -2.97 for the month of May. Ill get together a subsurface change for about the past month then. Forecasts are for moderate but RONI (relative ONI) may be pushing strong status come fall. The RONI compared to ONI for the El Nino was ~1.4C versus 2.0C respectively. So we are seeing some decent disconnect occur from mid latitudes and the tropical regions.

Pretty sure RONI is just removing warming from the ONI metric or in other words the Nino 3.4 region has warmed by 0.6C during their period of record. 

MEI can be used to assess the oceanic and atmospheric 'disconnect', but data to update this metric was discontinued earlier this year so it's tough to say.

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/14/2024 at 8:15 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Pretty sure RONI is just removing warming from the ONI metric or in other words the Nino 3.4 region has warmed by 0.6C during their period of record. 

MEI can be used to assess the oceanic and atmospheric 'disconnect', but data to update this metric was discontinued earlier this year so it's tough to say.

That is kind of how I figured RONI to be. MEI I agree is the true teller for Atmospheric to Ocean but this actually is being continued on the same site just with a different data source. Hoping it is up and going by the end of this summer, currently it seems to have a rather large delay in specific variables.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

I do believe this PDO is causing some large issues in between the tropics and subtropics to mid latitudes. As long as the -PDO is around I assume we also continue to experience the +AMO, they at least seem to go almost hand in hand with each other. Of course there are times though where we get both positive or both negative but overall they seem to have a negative correlation.