ENSO - El Nino & La Nina Discussions

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/1/2023 at 10:50 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

It's also possible that a Nino completely fails to develop like 2012/13 and 2013/14 or back to back weak years like 1976/77 and 1977/78. 

Either way, I'm pretty sure those that are calling for a strong Nino will find egg on their face while eating crow in or before November ... 

Yea things are looking rough in the ENSO department. This really does shout out potential failed year and next year being the show. SOI is now in consistently positive territory for the last ~2 weeks and a continuation for the next week or so. 30 day average now + for the first time since ~April, the April SOI clocked in ever so slightly negative which was probably due to the leftovers of what happened toward the end of March.

 

We need a pretty strong turnaround to occur in the next month for me to bite on this being more than moderate potential. We should be getting an updated T-depth anomaly on CPC site in the next day or so. Im also curious what the JMA subsurface look will be for the month of June. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea things are looking rough in the ENSO department. This really does shout out potential failed year and next year being the show. SOI is now in consistently positive territory for the last ~2 weeks and a continuation for the next week or so. 30 day average now + for the first time since ~April, the April SOI clocked in ever so slightly negative which was probably due to the leftovers of what happened toward the end of March.

 

We need a pretty strong turnaround to occur in the next month for me to bite on this being more than moderate potential. We should be getting an updated T-depth anomaly on CPC site in the next day or so. Im also curious what the JMA subsurface look will be for the month of June. 

I'd need to see a strong turn around to believe anything more than a weak event.

The deeply negative PDO is going to be hard to overcome.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'd need to see a strong turn around to believe anything more than a weak event.

The deeply negative PDO is going to be hard to overcome.

Apparently there is the forecast for a solid mjo event toward the last week of the month. Unfortunately many of these forecasts have not panned out. So unless we see the reversal around then we are on limited time for development. The aleutian low looks to be going away in the long range so we may be able to get a ridging pattern out west to finally start chipping away at those values. Time will tell of course.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 7/6/2023 at 7:34 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Apparently there is the forecast for a solid mjo event toward the last week of the month. Unfortunately many of these forecasts have not panned out. So unless we see the reversal around then we are on limited time for development. The aleutian low looks to be going away in the long range so we may be able to get a ridging pattern out west to finally start chipping away at those values. Time will tell of course.

MJO forecasting is just another long-range model forecast that's frequently wrong. If we shouldn't believe a day 10 blizzard forecast then why should we believe a day 10 MJO forecast?

The bias-corrected ECMWF MJO forecast is mostly in the circle of death:

The GEFS forecast is much more amplified:

I'm putting my stock in the ECMWF, because it's a better model and IMHO the solution is more likely. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

MJO forecasting is just another long-range model forecast that's frequently wrong. If we shouldn't believe a day 10 blizzard forecast then why should we believe a day 10 MJO forecast?

The bias-corrected ECMWF MJO forecast is mostly in the circle of death:

The GEFS forecast is much more amplified:

I'm putting my stock in the ECMWF, because it's a better model and IMHO the solution is more likely. 

Yea the GFS does these erroneous bursts mid to long range of activity. You can see it during tropical activity where the Euro holds things at bay a bit versus the GFS that just spawns several tropical systems. One thing that least is consistent is that there is a push toward the west pac as far as -VP and potential MJO motion now how strong it gets is another question. Euro has been showing for awhile now a more -SOI pattern evolving coming up toward mid month. Again severity is in question but nonetheless a relaxation of the current La Nina like atmosphere looks to be coming up.

[StLweatherjunkie]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea the GFS does these erroneous bursts mid to long range of activity. You can see it during tropical activity where the Euro holds things at bay a bit versus the GFS that just spawns several tropical systems. One thing that least is consistent is that there is a push toward the west pac as far as -VP and potential MJO motion now how strong it gets is another question. Euro has been showing for awhile now a more -SOI pattern evolving coming up toward mid month. Again severity is in question but nonetheless a relaxation of the current La Nina like atmosphere looks to be coming up.

I agree, but would also like to point out that it's been pretty Nino ish for at least the past three months.

The negative height anomalies extending from the Philippines to Maritime Canada is pretty textbook Nino. Your previous post also mentioned the Aleutian low fading, which I think is extremely important. As the low weakens, I think it's providing a clue for the upcoming winter pattern. 

The low shifts to the Gulf of Alaska with an even more anomalous low over the Hudson Bay while California is left high and dry. Except for a few closed lows in the great lakes last winter, there was any eastern troughing. Ever since spring it's been showing up more and more often ....

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I agree, but would also like to point out that it's been pretty Nino ish for at least the past three months.

The negative height anomalies extending from the Philippines to Maritime Canada is pretty textbook Nino. Your previous post also mentioned the Aleutian low fading, which I think is extremely important. As the low weakens, I think it's providing a clue for the upcoming winter pattern. 

The low shifts to the Gulf of Alaska with an even more anomalous low over the Hudson Bay while California is left high and dry. Except for a few closed lows in the great lakes last winter, there was any eastern troughing. Ever since spring it's been showing up more and more often ....

Yea we did a huge reversal out east, we had been plagued by ridging for months to go to troughing. We switched it up probably around mid may area where we backed flow more to allow the lakes to be the center point for the trough. Most april and may still featured near ridging but more so backside troughing from the consistent trough near nova scotia/newfoundland area. That ridging in Canada was damn near off the charts and it coincided with the soi being anomalously low through much of May. 

So i do agree, it has been quite the active STJ which really had a lot to do i feel from the heat spike that occurred in the EPAC not necessarily Nino overall. We definitely had a lag situation where may was so much nino that it finally broke through in june and gave that presentation of the 500mb pattern. The fact that the WPAC is dead still is not very common in Nino. The EPAC only picked up because we are in climo for the region, typically july and august are the busy months there then we do august through october in the Atlantic. 

Lets see what happens i do like the progression so far and if we could have this during winter it would be phenomenal. Im more concerned about where the anomalous warmth in the tropics will be centered. Even with the potential of this being weak (still think moderate is the way to go) the placement of the warmth will be extremely important.

Models now seem to be trying to do a peak in December also still around moderate in strength some closer to strong still. Im still not sure that will happen, if it does it is very 2009-10 especially how subsurface has evovled too again not stating this is a year that will repeat.

At this point we can probably file much of July as a nothing burger, maybe the end of the month may feature some changes again. Otherwise the countdown continues to mid fall (~november) we typically do not see a peak in December or October but it happens from time to time.

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/11/2023 at 9:02 AM, so_whats_happening said:

At this point we can probably take off weak El Nino and can probably see a peak as a strong El Nino in a tri-monthly or two come this fall. Overall impacts may be more inline with a moderate EL Nino event with the potential of forcing placement issues. With the WPAC and Maritime just not cooling off as expected and the Atlantic just on fire right now the EPAC/ENSO region needs to be exceedingly warm to fight for the proper forcing to take hold in the a more traditional ENSO sense. 

It looks as though we have been on about a steady .3C per month rise in 3.4 since our initial WWB/ MJO event back in February. Going off this and continual warming taking place, barring no major changes in progression of anomalies, we look to go to about averages of 1.2-1.3 by July 1.5-1.6 August and 1.8-1.9 in September. Typically ENSO tends to peak in and around October/November which could have a monthly pushing 2C+ (super region for temps) but this is still a big if right now. This is all based on the idea we get continual WWB events coming up here to maintain this level of warming through the next 3 or so months. If we see a lack in WWB events and overall meh SOI we can probably safely go on the lower end of a lot of these numbers as we push toward Fall.

Still a long ways away but there still seem to be quite a few conflicting aspects to how this ENSO will develop. I still have a very hard time seeing some of these model predictions of Super Nino there does seem to be solid consensus though of global models in the 1.8-2.1 range so that seems to be a fair upper limit at this point, again unless the atmosphere just goes bonkers in the next two months and goes full tilt Nino.

Going to have to do some work to push those averages I mentioned awhile back. July looks to average around 1 maybe 1.1 if we can hold temps through the rest of the month which is not bad at all just needs to pick up the pace a little as we are on the slower end of things now.

Coming up we look to have potentially another solid -SOI string maybe through till the end of the month. This will be another period where we could see some nice warming taking place toward the end of the month beginning of August. Im curious about what happens here because July has not gone as many thought where we would push strongly into the moderate maybe even strong category and some of those higher predictions on models are going to probably bust. Still thinking a peak around 1.7 is a good possibility but still having the upper echelon around 2.0 is still reasonable. Again we typically peak around October sometimes November but not very often before or after that timeframe.

The PDO is taking another hit but still holding on decently the northern Pac waters are warming alot so maybe by fall we may manage near neutral PDO status and maybe not flip until after the peak of this event and continue to rise as the El Nino dies into late winter/ spring.

No major WWBs forecasted with the MJO virtually just sitting in null. We possibly could see a small peak with an emerging tropical system in the WPAC (so phase 5/6 area) but nothing to write home about at this point. Subsurface seems to be losing some steam in the WPAC and CP the EPAC warm pool has expanded a bit but not surfacing much besides 1+2. What looks to be happening is a slow bleed of warmth to the surface as we turn the corner toward the end of August it will be interesting to see how things progress to that point and if we can pick up some activity to warrant more surfacing of warmth.

[MaineJay]

On 7/6/2023 at 3:20 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'd need to see a strong turn around to believe anything more than a weak event.

The deeply negative PDO is going to be hard to overcome.

There has been some changes, though the shallower mixing depths of boreal summer might be illusory. Especially if upwelling along the west coast of NOAM ramps up in the coming months, but I think the current (foreseeable) weather forecasts don't really support upwelling.

90 day loop.

[so_whats_happening]

23 hours ago, MaineJay said:

There has been some changes, though the shallower mixing depths of boreal summer might be illusory. Especially if upwelling along the west coast of NOAM ramps up in the coming months, but I think the current (foreseeable) weather forecasts don't really support upwelling.

90 day loop.

Unfortunately this one doesn't have a loop like coral reef but I mean what exactly is the right one depicted here? Take for instance the waters around Kamchatka, coral reef has it well above average while tropical tidbits site has it actually below average. One notable thing is the dispersing of the warmer concentration that was just west of the west coast both see it. The other main factor is the warm tongue still ever present east of Japan this is still a sign we have a -PDO and have not switched yet. Thoughts are neutral by fall but until we see that change im not sure when exactly that will be, but maybe with the uptick in tropical activity in the WPAC maybe this starts to cool down in time?

I have heard CDAS does run a bit cooler but we are talking nearly 3-4C difference here in Kamchatka region and into the Bering sea. Is it possible while CDAS runs a little cooler coral reef runs a little warmer?

Edited August 1, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately this one doesn't have a loop like coral reef but I mean what exactly is the right one depicted here? Take for instance the waters around Kamchatka, coral reef has it well above average while tropical tidbits site has it actually below average. One notable thing is the dispersing of the warmer concentration that was just west of the west coast both see it. The other main factor is the warm tongue still ever present east of Japan this is still a sign we have a -PDO and have not switched yet. Thoughts are neutral by fall but until we see that change im not sure when exactly that will be, but maybe with the uptick in tropical activity in the WPAC maybe this starts to cool down in time?

I have heard CDAS does run a bit cooler but we are talking nearly 3-4C difference here in Kamchatka region and into the Bering sea. Is it possible while CDAS runs a little cooler coral reef runs a little warmer?

Could have to do with baseline.

Can't trust this, but I get the notion that the PDO puts a lot of weight on the upwelling/downwelling along the NOAM West Coast, particularly from about Oregon up the Alaska coast to about Prince William sound.

  The forecasted pattern coming up would suggest some modest (and better perhaps) downwelling in the near term. As I mentioned though, the big caveat being shallow mixing depths currently.  I like to wait till the second week of the month for the ocean briefing which has a PDO index based on the upper 300m of ocean.

Which was also, strongly negative last month.  But, even during the big 2015-16 Niño, it wasn't particularly positive.  Not disagreeing with the connection between the two, but every event has it's quirks.

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Could have to do with baseline.

Can't trust this, but I get the notion that the PDO puts a lot of weight on the upwelling/downwelling along the NOAM West Coast, particularly from about Oregon up the Alaska coast to about Prince William sound.

  The forecasted pattern coming up would suggest some modest (and better perhaps) downwelling in the near term. As I mentioned though, the big caveat being shallow mixing depths currently.  I like to wait till the second week of the month for the ocean briefing which has a PDO index based on the upper 300m of ocean.

Which was also, strongly negative last month.  But, even during the big 2015-16 Niño, it wasn't particularly positive.  Not disagreeing with the connection between the two, but every event has it's quirks.

 

 

Yea if I am reading it right CDAS uses 1981-2010 while coral reef uses 1985-present (kinda strange). As for the PDO stuff it is possible it is just looked at being a west coast thing, I personally tend to look at the warm/cool tongue as a sign things have shifted finally. If we have a rather dramatic rise in the PDO values coming up then we can solely say the west coast is the main attributor. 

[Grace]

Losing some mojo? Towards the end of loop.

Edited August 15, 2023 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, Grace said:

Losing some mojo? Towards the end of loop.

Im not sure it is losing mojo. I have a feeling it may be configuring itself further west though as compared to the constant warming within 1+2, 3.  The thermocline has definitely risen in the east and we are starting to see cooling occur with an OHC of only about .8-.9. Without a significant coupled oceanic and atmospherjc response I find it difficult for us to attain these robust model forecasts of +2.2 NDJ. 

Not to say we arent finally getting some coupling taking place. Finally getting standing waves similar to how a Nino goes. Some of the stronger upticks in temps should continue to be 3.4 and 4 even with weakening of trades still around 1+2, 3. These areas may see a small rebound coming up but feel they are getting tapped out a bit.

Considering we are near mid august and many of these models had a strong turn around this month like they did last month im hesitant on calls of trimonthlies of +2.2 for NDJ. It shows the models are overreacting to the warming signals and trying to force a very Nino like atmosphere when one is slowly setting up in reality. Honestly lets see what happens coming up here as the month progresses and we start the typical transisitions in september globally.

[so_whats_happening]

Im not sure which official PDO is used but using ERSST monthlies we really didn't fall that much, listed is from January to July:

2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.41 -2.54 -2.58

We are starting to cool down the warm tongue off of Japan though (I guess multiple tropical systems were the trick) but we are also rather stagnant in any further warming along the west coast recently. I expect the weakening to actually occur this month and again maybe make a push more toward neutral come fall.

The EPAC seems to firing on all cylinders recently with at least what looks like 2 more storms in the pipeline. Typical season is 15/8/4 forecast is for about 18/9/6 currently sitting at 8/5/3. This next month will be very informative as seasons with typically strong/warm ENSO events go bonkers in the next month and a half.

[Grace]

54 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im not sure it is losing mojo. I have a feeling it may be configuring itself further west though as compared to the constant warming within 1+2, 3.  The thermocline has definitely risen in the east and we are starting to see cooling occur with an OHC of only about .8-.9. Without a significant coupled oceanic and atmospherjc response I find it difficult for us to attain these robust model forecasts of +2.2 NDJ. 

Not to say we arent finally getting some coupling taking place. Finally getting standing waves similar to how a Nino goes. Some of the stronger upticks in temps should continue to be 3.4 and 4 even with weakening of trades still around 1+2, 3. These areas may see a small rebound coming up but feel they are getting tapped out a bit.

Considering we are near mid august and many of these models had a strong turn around this month like they did last month im hesitant on calls of trimonthlies of +2.2 for NDJ. It shows the models are overreacting to the warming signals and trying to force a very Nino like atmosphere when one is slowly setting up in reality. Honestly lets see what happens coming up here as the month progresses and we start the typical transisitions in september globally.

 

Watch the warm pool anomalies drop the last couple of frames. Yes, at the surface warmer waters are beginning to move further west but I'm referring to cooling of subsurface warm pool the last few frames.

A lot of guidance has a weakening El Nino as we move into OCT/NOV bitbtries to temporarily rebound in DEC & then weaken. 

Who knows what the future holds. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Watch the warm pool anomalies drop the last couple of frames. Yes, at the surface warmer waters are beginning to move further west but I'm referring to cooling of subsurface warm pool the last few frames.

A lot of guidance has a weakening El Nino as we move into OCT/NOV bitbtries to temporarily rebound in DEC & then weaken. 

Who knows what the future holds. 

Yep it seems we haven't had coupled WWB events as frequent so the Kelvin waves within the subsurface are not matching up with wind events occurring at the surface to gain maximum potential. So while we still get wind reversals we seem to only be warming up some regions while depleting subsurface warmth in the process with not getting much in the way of Downwelling Kelvin waves from the WPAC to reenforce. This could always change though if the MJO ever ramps up, should happen in seasonal change and that may be what models are trying to get going.

The issue is still the warmth at the surface and subsurface in the WPAC this has yet to cool and until that does we don't finish the ENSO cycle in a classic way (regardless of strength),maybe we witness a different way warm ENSO evolves that we can gather satellite data to use for future. This is definitely just a random thought though and I do see it ending in a more classic fashion of subsurface cooling from a strong KW from the WPAC. The next issue is how much warmth will happen and what will the subsurface still have to offer if the more classic scenario occurs? Not much in the same idea of what may be to come but 2009-10 season followed a fairly similar subsurface when we had slow warming then a nice warm push with the typical subsurface cooling that followed. This was off compared to this year by a month or two since peak tri monthlies happened in December and i expect peak maybe October? I don't expect a significant cooling in 1+2 to occur like that year though it may fall (say +1C region) and then rise again as the ENSO ends.

We had a coupling in February and early March which led to the EPAC opening up an soar with temps, another at the end of May/ early June which allowed a really sharp warming in most regions and it is very possible to get one again but nothing happening currently resembles those times, yet. Let us see what comes with the next bout.

[Grace]

CFS starts looking like a La Nina brewing by June. 

 

CanSips has a full blown strong Central Pacific LA Nina by next September.

[so_whats_happening]

Boy it has been a minute since I gave an update. Since August15th we had a rather noticeable typical El Nino response in the weakening of trades and -VP over much of the central and east Pacific. This by far was one of our larger increases we had seen from the El Nino since probably the late May early June WWB event. We had topped out around +1.7 for about a week or so until we started a rather decent trade wind increase thus cooling most regions. I should get the update for the next day on TAO but here is what the subsurface looks like from end of August into early October. Notice the upwelling trying to tackle the thermocline in the EPAC not sure it will break because of this but it certainly is notable. We need to watch and see how much the WPAC cools still to see if forcing can be pushed further east than where it has been parked most of the spring and summer (west of the dateline).

I have noticed though looking through old progressions of ENSO (El Nino to whatever) the more robust cooling in the subsurface the better the chance of La Nina conditions next season a weaker response tends to mean either a potentially warm ENSO or neutral scenario becomes more likely. 2019-20 was the last neutral winter (slightly warm) before that was 2012-13, and 2013-14 seasons (near neutral or slightly below). So we are definitely due for one in the near future instead of constantly flipping back and forth between La Nina and El Nino.

Edited October 6, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[StLweatherjunkie]

MEI shows a bunch more 'neutral' conditions than ONI and also a definite preference for La Nina conditions with the ongoing El Nino only the second since 2009-10. That probably suggests a PDO influence and may also suggest that 2009-10 could be a top analog for this winter.

[MaineJay]

This still appears to be a "cold tongue" or more canonical El Niño currently.  Regions 1+2 are the most variable, and I'm not yet convinced they cool enough to make this a "modoki" event.  

  Trade winds often weaken near the Galapagos as we approach Christmas time. CFS appears to be consistently too cool with regions 1+2 in the last few months.

 

[Poco]

On 10/17/2023 at 6:28 AM, MaineJay said:

This still appears to be a "cold tongue" or more canonical El Niño currently.  Regions 1+2 are the most variable, and I'm not yet convinced they cool enough to make this a "modoki" event.  

  Trade winds often weaken near the Galapagos as we approach Christmas time. CFS appears to be consistently too cool with regions 1+2 in the last few months.

 

hi there, I’m new here, what’s an El Niño lol

 

ive followed from afar most of the summer and now intraseasonal.  Do not think we are looking at a modoki at all, no what what El Niño is on deck I think people just like saying “modoki” 

last I checked it appeared That an anomalous subsurface cold pool in the western equatorial region of the pacific had moved over to almost 110 degree line.   In spite of that a sixth down welling kelvin wave (positive phase) has started to move more upper equatorial heat anomalies due east.  So we maybe will see some of that heat Content surfacing in the highly volatile 1+2  area.  A more Canonical Niño seems to be setting up for the winter season.  
 

coming off of a triple niña May mean that all the atmospheric cells that couple the oceans to the atmospheres may be a bit more stubborn to align and which help the subsequent equatorial heat transfer to move vertically and poleward.  These eddys of heat flux can be responsible for cold outbreaks in the US and if timed properly with the help of the MJO can cause changes to sensible weather here in the eastern US. 
 

what does it all mean for winter, I don’t know, I’m not a meteorologist like many others on here and I honestly have hardly followed this latest enso transition.  But have been around long enough to know that in the northeast an El Niño winter has better chances at producing a large winter storm than that of its counterpart.  However just because the upper ocean in the 3.4 range shows +2 temp anomaly does not mean that the equatorial heat will cause stratospheric disruptions or cold intrusions. 
 

it’s honestly the most fascinating part of winter to me and the longer I follow along the more I’m enthralled by how equatorial ocean heat in the enso regions and the circulating MJO play a huge roll into the wi tee season here In the eastern half of the USA.    
 

remember to always consult the pros like Dr Ventrice and Amy Butler and yes even Judah Cohen.  I’ll be sure to catch up in the thread as it’s been a few years since our last nino winter and I think this is definitely my first Nino experience coming off of a triple La Niña so I’m ready to watch Hadley, Walker, Ferrell and polar cells.   Remember Enzo is just not an oceanic phenomenon, it encompasses the atmosphere too starting with trade winds and working its way both vertically and poleward in its effects. 
 

cheers, poco 

[1816]

18 minutes ago, Poco said:

hi there, I’m new here, what’s an El Niño lol

 

ive followed from afar most of the summer and now intraseasonal.  Do not think we are looking at a modoki at all, no what what El Niño is on deck I think people just like saying “modoki” 

last I checked it appeared That an anomalous subsurface cold pool in the western equatorial region of the pacific had moved over to almost 110 degree line.   In spite of that a sixth down welling kelvin wave (positive phase) has started to move more upper equatorial heat anomalies due east.  So we maybe will see some of that heat Content surfacing in the highly volatile 1+2  area.  A more Canonical Niño seems to be setting up for the winter season.  
 

coming off of a triple niña May mean that all the atmospheric cells that couple the oceans to the atmospheres may be a bit more stubborn to align and which help the subsequent equatorial heat transfer to move vertically and poleward.  These eddys of heat flux can be responsible for cold outbreaks in the US and if timed properly with the help of the MJO can cause changes to sensible weather here in the eastern US. 
 

what does it all mean for winter, I don’t know, I’m not a meteorologist like many others on here and I honestly have hardly followed this latest enso transition.  But have been around long enough to know that in the northeast an El Niño winter has better chances at producing a large winter storm than that of its counterpart.  However just because the upper ocean in the 3.4 range shows +2 temp anomaly does not mean that the equatorial heat will cause stratospheric disruptions or cold intrusions. 
 

it’s honestly the most fascinating part of winter to me and the longer I follow along the more I’m enthralled by how equatorial ocean heat in the enso regions and the circulating MJO play a huge roll into the wi tee season here In the eastern half of the USA.    
 

remember to always consult the pros like Dr Ventrice and Amy Butler and yes even Judah Cohen.  I’ll be sure to catch up in the thread as it’s been a few years since our last nino winter and I think this is definitely my first Nino experience coming off of a triple La Niña so I’m ready to watch Hadley, Walker, Ferrell and polar cells.   Remember Enzo is just not an oceanic phenomenon, it encompasses the atmosphere too starting with trade winds and working its way both vertically and poleward in its effects. 
 

cheers, poco 

I of course listen to the experts here and lurk hard on other forums checking out their long range prognostications. Seems like a whole lot of 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️. But that's been proven out every year. As one of our posters here the other day showed even cpc just throwing darts. 

But even if our climate is warmer now and having major impacts sooner or later we're going to have a hard winter. That's just common sense. May be this year. 🤷‍♂️

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, Poco said:

hi there, I’m new here, what’s an El Niño lol

 

ive followed from afar most of the summer and now intraseasonal.  Do not think we are looking at a modoki at all, no what what El Niño is on deck I think people just like saying “modoki” 

last I checked it appeared That an anomalous subsurface cold pool in the western equatorial region of the pacific had moved over to almost 110 degree line.   In spite of that a sixth down welling kelvin wave (positive phase) has started to move more upper equatorial heat anomalies due east.  So we maybe will see some of that heat Content surfacing in the highly volatile 1+2  area.  A more Canonical Niño seems to be setting up for the winter season.  
 

coming off of a triple niña May mean that all the atmospheric cells that couple the oceans to the atmospheres may be a bit more stubborn to align and which help the subsequent equatorial heat transfer to move vertically and poleward.  These eddys of heat flux can be responsible for cold outbreaks in the US and if timed properly with the help of the MJO can cause changes to sensible weather here in the eastern US. 
 

what does it all mean for winter, I don’t know, I’m not a meteorologist like many others on here and I honestly have hardly followed this latest enso transition.  But have been around long enough to know that in the northeast an El Niño winter has better chances at producing a large winter storm than that of its counterpart.  However just because the upper ocean in the 3.4 range shows +2 temp anomaly does not mean that the equatorial heat will cause stratospheric disruptions or cold intrusions. 
 

it’s honestly the most fascinating part of winter to me and the longer I follow along the more I’m enthralled by how equatorial ocean heat in the enso regions and the circulating MJO play a huge roll into the wi tee season here In the eastern half of the USA.    
 

remember to always consult the pros like Dr Ventrice and Amy Butler and yes even Judah Cohen.  I’ll be sure to catch up in the thread as it’s been a few years since our last nino winter and I think this is definitely my first Nino experience coming off of a triple La Niña so I’m ready to watch Hadley, Walker, Ferrell and polar cells.   Remember Enzo is just not an oceanic phenomenon, it encompasses the atmosphere too starting with trade winds and working its way both vertically and poleward in its effects. 
 

cheers, poco 

Yea I think people instantly see the word 'modoki' and all hell breaks loose on the twitter verse or 'x' or whatever ( I don't follow it enough or care to but some folks post it alot). This year the forcing has continually been west of typical canonical El Nino events very similar to weak or 'modoki' style ENSO events and I think that is what people are misplacing the idea of 'modoki'. What could be contributing to that honestly is anyone's guess as this also happened for some time in 2015-16 Super Nino (strongest on record mind you) where forcing was at the dateline for some time versus being around 120-140W in more typical strong El Nino events. I think what is important to keep in mind is the list of super events can be counted on one hand so pretty poor diversity with these events so we probably haven't seen all the flavors of El Nino arise in strong and super events.

Going forward though I do believe we are still seeing some large impacts from the ever persistent -PDO that is in place, we recently got a much more noticeable El Nino atmospheric pattern to take shape in October so we may start to actually cut this -PDO down from its near record level run the last 2-3 years. Unfortunately there is not a whole lot of upper ocean heat to really drive up temps in 3.4 much more and the mismatching of atmospheric parameters to the oceanic processes is causing the El Nino to act in a much more reduced manner even with temps as high as they are. MEI values show this rather well compared to similar El Nino years like 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and even 1972-73 (unfortunately do not have MEI data pre 1980 though). There is still some disconnect taking place even though we do get bouts of El Nino atmospheric conditions to show up from time to time.

One nice thing to see is even with the reduced times of west ridging and -PNA style modes we are not seeing the cold spill in the NE PAC and subsequent western portion of the US, it is further east around the mountains and plains this go around so we should at least be able to get some solid cold shots when those times do come not some moderated temp pattern we saw the last 2 years or so. What also helps too are the waters off the immediate mid Atlantic coast, can't say east coast because far SE (FL/ GA) and gulf of Maine are still seeing much above average water temps. Honestly will be an interesting one to watch in a little over a month as this Nino is definitely a different flavor from what we have seen in records thus far.

[Poco]

Last night I found myself wondering how many SSWs in the last two decades have occurred during Niño or Niña’s.  Is there any correlation one way or is it just too small of a sample size we only have a couple decades of ssw info but far more enso information.  
 

im most interested in how an El Niño can effect equatorial heat transport to the upper atmosphere and any corresponding spike in wave activity on the PV.   There’s just not a ton of research in this area, enso state or the tropics.  Typhoons in the southern pacific can create havoc too based on their ability disperse heat upwards into the upper reaches of the atmosphere where excess heat is radiated toward space effecting everything from the troposphere to the mesosphere and everything in between.  This excess heat wants to move poleward I’m assuming due to Coriolis type forces causing heat flux eddys to act as transports to the fringes of the PV.  
 

ill do my best this year to try to locate the rossby waves which can be visualized on certain latitudinal plots.  I’ve seen it done by dr ventrice but haven’t quite been able to replicate them on my own during the last two winters. 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Poco