ENSO - El Nino & La Nina Discussions

[Iceresistance]

Today's SOI is at -64.63, it's even lower!

[Iceresistance]

@so_whats_happening

I got a reply from him, the lowest daily SOI was -85.71 in June 1997.

[so_whats_happening]

Stupidly cautious on this impending ENSO shake-up. Lack of WWB continuation is definitely hurting EL Nino potential. The waters in the WPAC (near the equator) are still anomalously warm which takes the push east we typically see with ENSO out of the picture right now. This will be the a rather important month coming up as many of the seasons with moderate and strong/ super Nino tend to start to take hold this month. I still think we are negative ENSO/ neutral situation as far atmospheric drivers go. AAM is through the roof so something has to break here and either we relax the pattern and do a slow warm up to weak maybe moderate status or we go into El Nino with some fury and potentially hit the strong/super that some dynamical models have been forecasting.

Tropical equatorial subsurface is just nuts with the entire basin being above average. 

[Ingyball]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Stupidly cautious on this impending ENSO shake-up. Lack of WWB continuation is definitely hurting EL Nino potential. The waters in the WPAC (near the equator) are still anomalously warm which takes the push east we typically see with ENSO out of the picture right now. This will be the a rather important month coming up as many of the seasons with moderate and strong/ super Nino tend to start to take hold this month. I still think we are negative ENSO/ neutral situation as far atmospheric drivers go. AAM is through the roof so something has to break here and either we relax the pattern and do a slow warm up to weak maybe moderate status or we go into El Nino with some fury and potentially hit the strong/super that some dynamical models have been forecasting.

Tropical equatorial subsurface is just nuts with the entire basin being above average. 

I disagree, I think we have already seen a flip to at least a warm neutral to weak El Nino atmosphere. One of the signs is the continued decrease in the 30 day and 90 day SOI which are both into the negatives now. That's really difficult to do in a negative ENSO atmosphere. On top of that the subtropical jet is starting to wake up and will play a role in the weather over the coming days which is another sign we're starting to see a flip. The extremely active High Plains is another sign that the atmosphere as already began to shift out of a La Nina influence. We're not in a full blow El Nino yet, nor is the atmosphere resemblant of that, but we have flipped away from a typical negative ENSO atmosphere.  

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 5/31/2023 at 5:05 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Stupidly cautious on this impending ENSO shake-up. Lack of WWB continuation is definitely hurting EL Nino potential. The waters in the WPAC (near the equator) are still anomalously warm which takes the push east we typically see with ENSO out of the picture right now. This will be the a rather important month coming up as many of the seasons with moderate and strong/ super Nino tend to start to take hold this month. I still think we are negative ENSO/ neutral situation as far atmospheric drivers go. AAM is through the roof so something has to break here and either we relax the pattern and do a slow warm up to weak maybe moderate status or we go into El Nino with some fury and potentially hit the strong/super that some dynamical models have been forecasting.

Tropical equatorial subsurface is just nuts with the entire basin being above average. 

I'm struggling to find a plot of recent AAM, could you post one please?

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'm struggling to find a plot of recent AAM, could you post one please?

This was from the tweet from another board. It seems fairly accurate but certainly not up to date. In the process of finding a site my old archived site no longer exists so ill be on the look out and can let you know.

It was a nice spike coinciding with the brief MJO spike with the SW PAC Typhoon and the severely negative SOI. 

EDIT: Had this site posted from another forum:

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

Edited June 1, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I disagree, I think we have already seen a flip to at least a warm neutral to weak El Nino atmosphere. One of the signs is the continued decrease in the 30 day and 90 day SOI which are both into the negatives now. That's really difficult to do in a negative ENSO atmosphere. On top of that the subtropical jet is starting to wake up and will play a role in the weather over the coming days which is another sign we're starting to see a flip. The extremely active High Plains is another sign that the atmosphere as already began to shift out of a La Nina influence. We're not in a full blow El Nino yet, nor is the atmosphere resemblant of that, but we have flipped away from a typical negative ENSO atmosphere.  

Maybe but we are having some hang over affects of the La Nina for sure. We are so dry right now in the mid atlantic it is worrisome we typically are not this dry going into an El Nino pattern. I really think the -PDO did a number.

Since 2000 we have only seen the PDO get near this low twice 2000-2002 area and 2010-13. Interestingly enough the 2001-2002 season was a horrible snowfall year for us ~9" the subsurface was like so:

2002 March

Strong warming 1+2 like we see now not as strong of WPAC warm anomaly as we have now but it got itself together ended up with a moderate El Nino 2002-2003 winter.

2011-2012 winter another blah year snowfall year ~11" that spring we were kicking down the La Nina another warm spot showed up in 1+2 this time more in April than March but to keep with consistency Ill post March. Notice the massive subsurface warm pool though. Winter 2012-13 ended up neutral didn't see it kick warm until 2014 and well we know what happened then into 2015.

 

Now this year nice warming in 1+2 and warm pool in WPAC.

 

Now this being said we have had WWB events but they have been much further west compared to the typical location of 170E-160W (around the Dateline) they have been closer to the Maritime Continent more so. Typically in the Super Nino events the WPAC warm pool is dislodged from its subsurface position due to these WWB events by April/ May, we have yet to see this occur as well as WPAC surface/subsurface cooling on a larger scale. In 2014 where models were signaling hard for a Super Nino we ended up with a weak one but we had a massive subsurface anomaly spring of 2014 even with a cool subsurface in the WPAC and we failed to go above weak this did set us up for a Super Nino the next year though.

Now this is not to say this will follow in any of these paths considering we look to have a different flavor with this set up that surely will help expand our understanding for future forecasts. Im genuinely curious how this shakes out though. Until we start seeing expansion of rain the East (mind you Philly just set the driest May since the 1800s) im cautious on the progression of this ENSO event and its coupling atmospherically. We just had a La Nina year with a rather active STJ and near record cold PDO talk about an oddity.

I will agree though we are not sitting fully La Nina base anymore (maybe pockets still exist) but we surely haven't quite pushed the El Nino spectrum and that gives me pause in all of this, especially the higher forecasts being thrown around. Sorry for the bit of a long winded post been discussing it on another forum off an on over the past 2 months.

[so_whats_happening]

While I dont think personally weak can fully be ruled out the more likely path is moderate status. I can see how there is a possibility of strong though considering the amount of heat overall, but I would like to see WWB events continue and actually push further E toward the dateline more consistently. This would help open up the door and also help dislodge the subsurface warmth in the WPAC, but it would be interesting to see if we follow a similar path as we did from 2014-16 where next year we see the main show.

This is definitely a key month to watch how things develop from here. Again these are just forecasts but lets see what happens. We had a similar WWB event back in February/ March to what we just had so im curious to see what the response will be this go around.

[Ingyball]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe but we are having some hang over affects of the La Nina for sure. We are so dry right now in the mid atlantic it is worrisome we typically are not this dry going into an El Nino pattern. I really think the -PDO did a number.

Since 2000 we have only seen the PDO get near this low twice 2000-2002 area and 2010-13. Interestingly enough the 2001-2002 season was a horrible snowfall year for us ~9" the subsurface was like so:

2002 March

Strong warming 1+2 like we see now not as strong of WPAC warm anomaly as we have now but it got itself together ended up with a moderate El Nino 2002-2003 winter.

2011-2012 winter another blah year snowfall year ~11" that spring we were kicking down the La Nina another warm spot showed up in 1+2 this time more in April than March but to keep with consistency Ill post March. Notice the massive subsurface warm pool though. Winter 2012-13 ended up neutral didn't see it kick warm until 2014 and well we know what happened then into 2015.

 

Now this year nice warming in 1+2 and warm pool in WPAC.

 

Now this being said we have had WWB events but they have been much further west compared to the typical location of 170E-160W (around the Dateline) they have been closer to the Maritime Continent more so. Typically in the Super Nino events the WPAC warm pool is dislodged from its subsurface position due to these WWB events by April/ May, we have yet to see this occur as well as WPAC surface/subsurface cooling on a larger scale. In 2014 where models were signaling hard for a Super Nino we ended up with a weak one but we had a massive subsurface anomaly spring of 2014 even with a cool subsurface in the WPAC and we failed to go above weak this did set us up for a Super Nino the next year though.

Now this is not to say this will follow in any of these paths considering we look to have a different flavor with this set up that surely will help expand our understanding for future forecasts. Im genuinely curious how this shakes out though. Until we start seeing expansion of rain the East (mind you Philly just set the driest May since the 1800s) im cautious on the progression of this ENSO event and its coupling atmospherically. We just had a La Nina year with a rather active STJ and near record cold PDO talk about an oddity.

I will agree though we are not sitting fully La Nina base anymore (maybe pockets still exist) but we surely haven't quite pushed the El Nino spectrum and that gives me pause in all of this, especially the higher forecasts being thrown around. Sorry for the bit of a long winded post been discussing it on another forum off an on over the past 2 months.

I'm not as familiar with how the onset of El Nino impacts the east coast, but I did go and research previous ENSO events that began during the tri-monthlies in AMJ, MJJ, and JJA and what's playing out in the Plains right now is almost exactly how those El Nino events played out through the Summer. Basically the High Plains became wet and any drought over those location started eroding away. However, the eastern half of the Plains stayed dry for the most part and the drought here continued through the fall despite a strengthening El Nino. Despite that, we had cool anomalies across the Plains during the summer and across the U.S as a whole so that will be something to watch. 

 

We are on the onset of El Nino though, so it's going to be a stair stepping process. It won't be one giant flip to the average El Nino pattern. However, seeing the subtropical jet go wild in June leading to an enhanced risk for Friday is a pretty good sign that stepping closer to a more consistent El Nino pattern. 

[Ingyball]

Actually what we're seeing now absolutely fits with past ENSO events leading into and through the summer. The East Coast remains dry for a while. These are all El Nino events that start in the AMJ, MJJ, JJA, tri-monthlies  like I said before. It isn't a perfect correlation, but it looks pretty close to what we're seeing now with how dry parts of the Midwest have been as well. 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/1/2023 at 8:14 PM, Ingyball said:

Actually what we're seeing now absolutely fits with past ENSO events leading into and through the summer. The East Coast remains dry for a while. These are all El Nino events that start in the AMJ, MJJ, JJA, tri-monthlies  like I said before. It isn't a perfect correlation, but it looks pretty close to what we're seeing now with how dry parts of the Midwest have been as well. 

 

 

Sorry for the late response was on vacation most of the last week. I will say that is a pretty interesting look for the future if you have some of those precip maps going from Jan-May I would love to see them. Anyway I wanna say you just described a -PDO pattern which typically is rather dry across most of the country coming out of winter while the west and intermountain west have the SE flow from the brief opening in the Gulf and troughing swinging through that area. The only two years with neutral if not positive PDO of the years listed was 1965 and 1997. Which led to us being more so under the backside of a trough than the other years which were dominated by high pressure. One would argue if we have such dry conditions then the heat would be on not cold across the region.

 

Couple things I wanted to note you say AMJ,MJJ, JJA as a start time 2004 and 2009 should also be added into the mix and i believe you may have meant 1963 instead of 1962 same with 1956 should be 1957. 

I changed those dates and added in 2004 and 2009.

Here is the 500mb pattern Jan-Apr, Ill add just May and the new June -Aug.

The pattern is fairly similar overall for Jan-Apr:

 

Here is May specifically since we can now add May in for 2023 a little wonky for this month:

 

Lastly here is June- Aug for those years listed including the 2004 and 2009 season. Again backside troughing in the NE looks like it drove the dry conditions with continual SW troughing with an almost rex block look out west. That would effectively shut off and tropical influence and thus rain across the country. Besides going through individual years this is as far im going to take this for now.

 

[so_whats_happening]

IF the GFS and Euro aren't too far off their rockers this would mean we see the push of the SW troughing out over the ocean and introduce ridging back into the west again. This would allow troughing in the east with cooler conditions and an increase in rainfall. We may need to watch the tropics into the end of the month for some homegrown/carribbean potential. 

Onto  ENSO talk 3.4 closing in on .9 currently with the weakened trades across 150W-90W. This the first true wind burst event that is centered over the main ENSO regions. We will have the typical trailing trade winds increase from the MJO progression lets see how much we can rise. There does look to be potentially another WWB event toward the end of June trying to setup.

[Ingyball]

I'm currently on a cruise but El Niño has officially been declared by CPC today. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

4 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I'm currently on a cruise but El Niño has officially been declared by CPC today. 

I don't think an advisory is the same as an official declaration of 5 consecutive tri-monthly ONI values > 0.5°C, but that seems pretty likely at this point: 

[Ingyball]

13 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I don't think an advisory is the same as an official declaration of 5 consecutive tri-monthly ONI values > 0.5°C, but that seems pretty likely at this point: 

Yes, I meant El Niño conditions have been declared, which is the more significant point. For it to be an El Niño in the record books it need to occur for 5 consecutive tri-monthlies, but that doesn't mean we aren't feeling the effects already, which is what most people care about. 

[so_whats_happening]

At this point we can probably take off weak El Nino and can probably see a peak as a strong El Nino in a tri-monthly or two come this fall. Overall impacts may be more inline with a moderate EL Nino event with the potential of forcing placement issues. With the WPAC and Maritime just not cooling off as expected and the Atlantic just on fire right now the EPAC/ENSO region needs to be exceedingly warm to fight for the proper forcing to take hold in the a more traditional ENSO sense. 

It looks as though we have been on about a steady .3C per month rise in 3.4 since our initial WWB/ MJO event back in February. Going off this and continual warming taking place, barring no major changes in progression of anomalies, we look to go to about averages of 1.2-1.3 by July 1.5-1.6 August and 1.8-1.9 in September. Typically ENSO tends to peak in and around October/November which could have a monthly pushing 2C+ (super region for temps) but this is still a big if right now. This is all based on the idea we get continual WWB events coming up here to maintain this level of warming through the next 3 or so months. If we see a lack in WWB events and overall meh SOI we can probably safely go on the lower end of a lot of these numbers as we push toward Fall.

Still a long ways away but there still seem to be quite a few conflicting aspects to how this ENSO will develop. I still have a very hard time seeing some of these model predictions of Super Nino there does seem to be solid consensus though of global models in the 1.8-2.1 range so that seems to be a fair upper limit at this point, again unless the atmosphere just goes bonkers in the next two months and goes full tilt Nino.

Edited June 11, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Ingyball]

56 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

At this point we can probably take off weak El Nino and can probably see a peak as a strong El Nino in a tri-monthly or two come this fall. Overall impacts may be more inline with a moderate EL Nino event with the potential of forcing placement issues. With the WPAC and Maritime just not cooling off as expected and the Atlantic just on fire right now the EPAC/ENSO region needs to be exceedingly warm to fight for the proper forcing to take hold in the a more traditional ENSO sense. 

It looks as though we have been on about a steady .3C per month rise in 3.4 since our initial WWB/ MJO event back in February. Going off this and continual warming taking place, barring no major changes in progression of anomalies, we look to go to about averages of 1.2-1.3 by July 1.5-1.6 August and 1.8-1.9 in September. Typically ENSO tends to peak in and around October/November which could have a monthly pushing 2C+ (super region for temps) but this is still a big if right now. This is all based on the idea we get continual WWB events coming up here to maintain this level of warming through the next 3 or so months. If we see a lack in WWB events and overall meh SOI we can probably safely go on the lower end of a lot of these numbers as we push toward Fall.

Still a long ways away but there still seem to be quite a few conflicting aspects to how this ENSO will develop. I still have a very hard time seeing some of these model predictions of Super Nino there does seem to be solid consensus though of global models in the 1.8-2.1 range so that seems to be a fair upper limit at this point, again unless the atmosphere just goes bonkers in the next two months and goes full tilt Nino.

A Super Nino would be unprecedented less than 10 years after the previous one. I think it's mostly just random ensembles that show that possibility however, as the CFS mean tends to hover in that 1.8-2.2 range. I do think it's more likely we stay in that moderate to strong range like you said though with some of the better potential for warming wasted. Perhaps this leads towards an additional Nino next year if it's potential isn't realized? It's too early to tell really. 

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

A Super Nino would be unprecedented less than 10 years after the previous one. I think it's mostly just random ensembles that show that possibility however, as the CFS mean tends to hover in that 1.8-2.2 range. I do think it's more likely we stay in that moderate to strong range like you said though with some of the better potential for warming wasted. Perhaps this leads towards an additional Nino next year if it's potential isn't realized? It's too early to tell really. 

The highlighted has been a thought of mine for quite some time hence the reasoning of thinking weak to maybe moderate max back toward late winter/ early spring. Since then there at least has been some progression into El Nino like conditions but it has been a rather rough path thus far. It truly would be unprecedented to see such an event occur with 2 Super Ninos within a decade. Honestly though this is month we typically see the push for more warming of 3.4 really start to get things going ( few exceptions for some late starters) given past data so im not entirely sure how this all shakes out. If hovmollers are to give any clue we may have peaked in warming this month and will slowly fall as trades pick up again over most ENSO regions after the MJO wave passed. There is potential showing up at the end of the month still of a minor WWB (as of now) taking shape this may help inch us up a bit again but if we don't end this month solidly at or above 1C in 3.4 we are surely going to be on the slower track than models were showing. If I remember correctly statistical models were on the lower end compared to dynamic models as we pushed through spring (1-1.3C peak for a good number on statistical models and 2-2.5 on good number of dynamic models) so I think a middle ground is best as of now which seemingly is about 1.7-1.8 max come fall ( lower end of my range) which would technically put us in strong category but more moderate like overall based on the tri-monthlies.

This could ultimately play in the eastern third of the U.S. favor for winter though (if folks want a snowy winter). It wouldn't have forcing too far west like we seemingly have had since the super event, but it also wouldn't allow forcing to be really far east more of a nice balance situation preferably around 3.4 would be the most ideal but again wayyy too far out to know. I think the biggest key we need to watch coming up here is the tropics. The lack of WPAC tropical systems over the years and the wonky extremely active year EPAC saw last year are just interesting little tidbits in the discussion of ENSO and tropics in general. Typically we should have seen a fairly active year last year in the Atlantic, not so much the case. Now the Atlantic is primed with little SAL to combat potential systems, the EPAC has yet to spring a TD this year. We definitely seem to be on the path of something we have not seen go down in the recorded history we have so far.

[StretchCT]

This would be interesting if it happened. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This would be interesting if it happened. 

 

Yea I find it a bit hard to believe but we will see. Had June temps averaging around 1.2-1.3 for 3.4 looks like we verify .9 via OISST or .8 CDAS. This is also the model that had seemed to have an intense MJO forming back in May that was supposed to go to 7/8 as a decent wave. We got a brief spike in 7 but went quickly to 1/2 and currently null.

Lol we dont want records like that nor do we want to see that 2 super ninos having occurred within a decade of each other. Still feel a 1.7 to max 2.0 is a good range at this point and at that how much this couples is still out. June was supposed to be a pivotal month and we close in on July soon lets see how much this changes coming up. We look to have lost a possible WWB event from the WPAC and maybe having some trying to get going over the weakness in trades that occurred over eastern 3.4 to 1+2 coming up. This should impact through early July barring the models aren't flip flopping things too much.

If we break out into full-scale El Nino during July and August this will be more reasonable of a forecast  and peak early in November, we certainly can guess what the winter forecast will look like in the east lol

Edited June 21, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[StLweatherjunkie]

Seems pretty clear to me that this is an east-based Nino that is struggling to warm up the western regions:

The subsurface is only moderately warm so significant warning above current observations seems unlikely:

Historically, multi-year Nina's are followed by ENSO neutral to weak El Nino events, especially within the modern era (1985-present) of ENSO monitoring. With all that said, I'm going with a weak El Nino (ONI peaking around +1.0C) and I feel like the Great Lakes region is gonna be hit hard this winter.

Edited June 26, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/26/2023 at 5:57 PM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Seems pretty clear to me that this is an east-based Nino that is struggling to warm up the western regions:

The subsurface is only moderately warm so significant warning above current observations seems unlikely:

Historically, multi-year Nina's are followed by ENSO neutral to weak El Nino events, especially within the modern era (1985-present) of ENSO monitoring. With all that said, I'm going with a weak El Nino (ONI peaking around +1.0C) and I feel like the Great Lakes region is gonna be hit hard this winter.

Very much agree that typically after Enso events we get the relaxation period. Hence why I was also thinking weak El Nino this year as well but bumped it up to moderate level as the subsurface was just a bit too much for me to bite on a weak event. The lack of WWBs is one indicator as well as SOI failing to stay low, we had one giant negative reading and it really did at one point look like it was about to take off. 

July is not looking favorable at all right now so temps should stabilize if not continue to cool further given the pattern setting up. We still seem to have a solid Nina hangover in the atmosphere and oceanic patterns. -PDO still very much present will continue fighting the El Nino.

[StLweatherjunkie]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Very much agree that typically after Enso events we get the relaxation period. Hence why I was also thinking weak El Nino this year as well but bumped it up to moderate level as the subsurface was just a bit too much for me to bite on a weak event. The lack of WWBs is one indicator as well as SOI failing to stay low, we had one giant negative reading and it really did at one point look like it was about to take off. 

July is not looking favorable at all right now so temps should stabilize if not continue to cool further given the pattern setting up. We still seem to have a solid Nina hangover in the atmosphere and oceanic patterns. -PDO still very much present will continue fighting the El Nino.

Yeah, very much agree with your point about the PDO being an important negative feedback. That could be why SOI struggled to stay strongly negative.

I know the tropics can play a big role in WWBs so there's still a couple months for that aspect to turn around. Since the latest ONI was +0.1, I think a neutral is more likely than moderate but I still favor a Nino.

This kind of wall to wall 90+% IRI model consensus feels like a 2014/15 red herring to me with a better chance of a moderate+ Nino next winter:

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Yeah, very much agree with your point about the PDO being an important negative feedback. That could be why SOI struggled to stay strongly negative.

I know the tropics can play a big role in WWBs so there's still a couple months for that aspect to turn around. Since the latest ONI was +0.1, I think a neutral is more likely than moderate but I still favor a Nino.

This kind of wall to wall 90+% IRI model consensus feels like a 2014/15 red herring to me with a better chance of a moderate+ Nino next winter:

Again the 2014/15 reference was a thought I had awhile back too. This being the transition year and we go potentially full bore next year. Would fit a much better transition in ENSO state but will have to see how the next 2 months play out. With July looking mundane in that development maybe the writing is on the wall at this early lead time.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 6/30/2023 at 5:25 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Again the 2014/15 reference was a thought I had awhile back too. This being the transition year and we go potentially full bore next year. Would fit a much better transition in ENSO state but will have to see how the next 2 months play out. With July looking mundane in that development maybe the writing is on the wall at this early lead time.

It's also possible that a Nino completely fails to develop like 2012/13 and 2013/14 or back to back weak years like 1976/77 and 1977/78. 

Either way, I'm pretty sure those that are calling for a strong Nino will find egg on their face while eating crow in or before November ... 

Edited July 1, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie