Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2023 On 3/10/2023 at 6:30 PM, Iceresistance said: I suppose you are right for this one, it seems like that the atmosphere got very used to the La Nina conditions. WIth the MJO very strong over the WPAC, we could see a powerful WWB that will drive the La Nina remnants into history! Maybe right now that region is experiencing enhanced easterlies. Most likely the atmosphere trying to shift out of a La Nina state and cool the western PAC surface. The more interesting thing to pop up though is the westerlies around 100-120 W. This is central to eastern edge of 3 start of near 3.4. This is probably explaining why the eastern Pac is warming nicely will have to see if we see any other shifts within the pattern or a continuation of this through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 CPC Weekly Update for March 13th, 2023 CPC 2nd full week of March ENSO Update Nino 4 -0.2°C (+.2°C compared to last week) Nino 3.4 -0.1°C (+.1°C compared to last week) Nino 3 +0.4°C (+.3°C compared to last week) Nino 1+2 +1.5°C (+.4°C compared to last week) (All are temperature anomalies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 We may be already into an El Niño! This is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 18, 2023 On 3/17/2023 at 11:10 AM, Iceresistance said: We may be already into an El Niño! This is one of the fastest La Niña collapses I have ever seen! I found 2 winters since 1950 that flowed a quick reversal from Niña to Niño. Both surpassed +0.5°C for the AMJ trimonthly average. 1965-66 (low solar, +2.0° peak ) and 1972-73 (declining solar, +2.1°C). Haven't checked QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 CPC Weekly Update for March 20th, 2023 (I'm a bit late for it) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Nino 4 -0.1°C (+.1°C compared to last week) Nino 3.4 +0.1°C (+.2°C compared to last week) Nino 3 +0.6°C (+.2°C compared to last week) Nino 1+2 +1.4°C (-.1°C compared to last week) (All are temperature anomalies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 CPC Weekly update is out for March 27th, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (Hotlinked for some reason) Nino 4 -0.1°C (0°C (No change) compared to last week) Nino 3.4 0°C (-.1°C compared to last week) Nino 3 +0.4°C (-.2°C compared to last week) Nino 1+2 +2°C (+.6°C compared to last week) (All are temperature anomalies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2023 Im still very much hesitant on the development of a moderate to Strong Nino as many seem to claim may happen. We need to get through the spring barrier which should shine light on the situation come end of April/ early May. It is not unheard of to have a -PDO with an El Nino, not common but not unheard of. We need to see a sustained decent MJO wave to reel me in on the thoughts of going above a weak El Nino let alone neutral, one spike won't be enough I feel (even with how impressive the spike was) and would also like to see the walker circulation weaken. It was nice surge as the trades weakened coming into the New year across much of the central and eastern Pac shifting to the west Pac. A tell tale sign of some mixed signals include the warm waters around Australia, the country is still dealing with large amounts of rainfall which indicates La Nina still in control. IOD also taking on a more positive approach which favors an El Nino to develop. The Atlantic is still cooking and may surprise folks at a potential active season before we get any semblance of Nino popping up. Seeing those warm anoms in 1+2 is impressive to say the least but 1+2 is just way to sloshy in temps most of the time to get a solid understanding of the pattern. Models I think tend to over exaggerate how quickly we rise to Nino conditions or dip to Nina conditions, I remember seeing a post on another forum where they show a forecast last season with a neutral to weak El Nino forming for this past winter we kind of all know how that went at this point so taking a grain of salt on model outputs of recent especially extended model outputs. If I can find the model forecast Ill post here later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2023 Share Posted April 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 11, 2023 NMME plumes "Uncorrected" ECMWF plumes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted April 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted April 12, 2023 UKMet plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 El Nino watch is in effect from CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted April 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 25, 2023 Wow, warmest worldwide (60N-60S) ocean temps ever recorded and it's not even El Nino yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2023 Share Posted April 26, 2023 14 hours ago, StretchCT said: Wow, warmest worldwide (60N-60S) ocean temps ever recorded and it's not even El Nino yet This could be the definition of a Super El Nino on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) On 4/25/2023 at 6:12 PM, StretchCT said: Wow, warmest worldwide (60N-60S) ocean temps ever recorded and it's not even El Nino yet It's worth noting that the 60N to 60S band is heavily biased towards southern hemisphere water temps: Also, when considering the era of global warming ... is this surprising? I don't think so. Finally, it's possible - if not likely - that el nino leads to more mid-latitude storminess that mixes up waters and results in cooler averages over such a large area. Edited April 29, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted April 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) This will be interesting to see unfold in the next two months. Still really far west for a WWB event but we did have the one in late January early February that eventually triggered the WWB event in the eastern Pac in mid March in a similar position. Maybe another strong MJO is to be forecast coming up? Personally you do not want MJO activity to occur in the IO for an upcoming El Nino event especially at this time period. Edited April 29, 2023 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted May 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 8, 2023 Since I posted this in the other threads Ill add it to this one as well. Lets see how the ocean and atmosphere react should see results in June and July for warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted May 16, 2023 Share Posted May 16, 2023 Just a wee bit of warmth in the subsurface. Big time change over the past 6-7 months! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 Soi continues to tank negative as the mjo sets up in a favorable spot for Nino to strengthen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 (edited) I don't remember any days with such a negative SOI, but it makes sense considering the pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti. Very impressive! Edited May 24, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I don't remember any days with such a negative SOI, but it makes sense considering the issue difference between Darwin and Tahiti. Very impressive! I was going to post that, I have never seen a Daily SOI below -60! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted May 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 23, 2023 6 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I don't remember any days with such a negative SOI, but it makes sense considering the issue difference between Darwin and Tahiti. Very impressive! Someone did the work on another forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Someone did the work on another forum. I saw the same person (with a different username) doing this on a different forum as well, I have asked him the lowest daily SOI ever recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Someone did the work on another forum. Makes sense to me, one day does not an El Nino make ... Direct quote from Yoda 👽 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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