Moderators Hiramite Posted October 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 28, 2023 FYI Volcanic eruptions found to dampen Indian Ocean El Niño events for up to 8 years https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 6, 2023 Massive westerly wind burst progged by the GFS. This will get likely either enhance, or create a subsequent downwelling Kevin wave. We can see that the upwelling phase at about 120W. With a down phase at 160W, where these surface, whether right along the Peru Coast, or just west of the Galapagos bears watching. This downwelling should surface in a month or so, coinciding with Christmas. El Niño, the child, refers to the time of year these events *normally* start. Again, whether this strengthens the ongoing DW wave, or create a subsequent, with a period of upwelling between is to be determined. I'm also not sure that the PDO has truly flipped. It's a much longer time scale of variability, that fluctuates with ENSO events, this takes much longer to really react. Number comes out on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) Thought this was cool to see how a mini WWB (EPAC) event set off the chain reaction we are currently seeing take place. Here are the 850 total and anom as well as the 200hPa VP. You can see the low frequency signal of the MJO enhancing favorable regions and a slow eastward progression of the VP location. The EPAC WWB event in mid august helped setup the +IOD and push the VP further east. By far the strongest response has been the latest event with the EPAC tropical activity back in late October that induced this VP response we are currently having. We should see some nice MJO motion over the next month. I personally would not be all too upset seeing a wave move through 4-7 toward the early to mid December timeframe. Would play well onto the idea of a warm late half of the month. Edited November 17, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 Models show weakening trade winds over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 2 Admin Share Posted January 2 Tradewinds are about to go on steroids perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/2/2024 at 2:31 AM, MaineJay said: Tradewinds are about to go on steroids perhaps. Sure looks like the Nino is crashing hard and needs life support. Only 1 of the past 10 years has been ENSO neutral so it feels like we're due for one, except all that substance cooling in the western Pacific implies another Nina. IRI probabilities for Nina conditions sneak above 50% by late summer too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 On 1/24/2024 at 3:57 AM, StLweatherjunkie said: Sure looks like the Nino is crashing hard and needs life support. Only 1 of the past 10 years has been ENSO neutral so it feels like we're due for one, except all that substance cooling in the western Pacific implies another Nina. IRI probabilities for Nina conditions sneak above 50% by late summer too. Probably has important implications for tropical season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Not sure where to post this so I will post here. I am a believer that there is more to the story rather than one of the sheep following the herd. If you were studying something and knew there were more facts to investigate, why wouldn’t you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 31 Meteorologist Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Rickrd said: Not sure where to post this so I will post here. I am a believer that there is more to the story rather than one of the sheep following the herd. If you were studying something and knew there were more facts to investigate, why wouldn’t you? Post the whole thing. Our understandings about our climate is good, not great but getting better. To make accusations definitively on either end is fools gold but from what we do know so far we will continue to go down an unsustainable path until we do actually change up our ways. Can't rely on a 50-100 year timescale event to bring us back to an equilibrium state we once were. Im pretty certain IPCC does actually incorporate volcanic eruptions but they are far too infrequent and not as predictable in the time scale of 10-100 years like adding in other chemical compounds. They also aren't consider long term climate drivers as the effects tend to only be around 3-5 years at best. This last one will be interesting to see just how much things change, it could potentially also easily be made as an assumption that this year was the hottest in our recorded history due to the massive amounts of water vapor pushed into the stratosphere from said volcano. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 31 Meteorologist Share Posted January 31 This ENSO has had quite the change in the subsurface look over the last month as subsurface continues to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Good stuff my man. We certainly are getting better. Just wish that the voices that are pointing at other things can get listened to. I just think there a lot more to it then just saying humans are the cause. I don’t believe it. Have you read the Book “Unsettled” ? A lot of good points in the book. Sure, cutting emissions is a great thing, but to hold all of civilization to one thing is not the answer. We need energy. Cutting it out at this time is not the solution. It’s just the easiest thing to throw at a much more complex, not understood situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 31 Meteorologist Share Posted January 31 18 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Good stuff my man. We certainly are getting better. Just wish that the voices that are pointing at other things can get listened to. I just think there a lot more to it then just saying humans are the cause. I don’t believe it. Have you read the Book “Unsettled” ? A lot of good points in the book. Sure, cutting emissions is a great thing, but to hold all of civilization to one thing is not the answer. We need energy. Cutting it out at this time is not the solution. It’s just the easiest thing to throw at a much more complex, not understood situation. People who do talk about oppositional thoughts do get listened to but I gotta say if it is not actual sound science it will likely get ignored. Many try to make articles but they quickly turn political and that is not science. I don't personally blame it all on humans but our actions are not well intentioned and we are indeed as many would say "shooting ourselves in the foot" for what seem to be quick monetary gains. We have definitely started tipping the cup whether it was already being tipped or not is up for debate but why speed along a process in a very unsustainable way? The whole cutting emissions thing is a by far a key aspect to us tipping that cup too much, again would this have already happened had we not had an industrial revolution sure but why speed run things to truly not know the eventual outcome? Of course we need energy and there should emerging thoughts to get us away from a finite resource but they get squandered by people who only want to use one thing and one thing only. Why are we actively destroying the lands around us to get quick monetary gains? Why do we continue to vote for people who we know are doing horrible things around us yet complain that said horrible things are happening? So yes we do need energy but at what expense. Would certainly be something if we don't actually swing the pendulum back and we continue to experience this warming climate year over year. Ill have to check but I think in a matter of 150-160 years we have managed to see temps go a full degree higher that has taken nearly hundreds (maybe close to a thousand years) of years to produce on natural timescales. Again why tip the bucket faster than is needed? Ill probably stop it there with my responses because it really is starting to take away from a purely ENSO thread. Ill be glad to take it to DM though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) On 1/30/2024 at 9:17 PM, Rickrd said: Good stuff my man. We certainly are getting better. Just wish that the voices that are pointing at other things can get listened to. I just think there a lot more to it then just saying humans are the cause. I don’t believe it. Have you read the Book “Unsettled” ? A lot of good points in the book. Sure, cutting emissions is a great thing, but to hold all of civilization to one thing is not the answer. We need energy. Cutting it out at this time is not the solution. It’s just the easiest thing to throw at a much more complex, not understood situation. Usually, the simplest explanation is best. What has changed most on Earth in the past couple hundred years? Humans and our societies have, so it's logical to attribute most problems emerging in that time frame to us. The sun continuously sends to earth more than 10,000 times the amount of energy used by all of humanity. Energy isn't the problem, capturing and storing it is (that's literally what oil is, sunlight captured by plants and stored in the ground): https://www.energy.gov/articles/top-6-things-you-didnt-know-about-solar-energy#:~:text=Solar energy is the most,the world's total energy use. If the majority of the problem and solution is this obvious then why should any time be spent considering fringe theories? The only silver lining of this whole situation is from a perspective of human survival and continued societal growth ... warming is better than cooling, BUT BOTH ARE BAD since our civilization emerged during an epoch of relative climatic stability. Edited February 2 by StLweatherjunkie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 8 Admin Share Posted February 8 Pretty interesting watching how the El Niño is getting hollowed out, but that region 1+2 still has a little gas in the tank. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 23 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23 Definitely some back and forth going on of recent even with the collapse of the subsurface. Still waiting on the thermocline to break in the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) On 2/23/2024 at 4:17 PM, so_whats_happening said: Definitely some back and forth going on of recent even with the collapse of the subsurface. Still waiting on the thermocline to break in the EPAC. Boom goes the dynamite: Edited March 4 by StLweatherjunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 5 Meteorologist Share Posted March 5 (edited) On 3/4/2024 at 7:09 AM, StLweatherjunkie said: Boom goes the dynamite: Will have to see how rapidly the onset of a Nina-like basin sets in. I would be all for a neutral year in between. Edited March 7 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 7 Meteorologist Share Posted March 7 Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 (edited) On 3/6/2024 at 9:00 PM, so_whats_happening said: Poof The burst of cooling near the Panama canal immediately before upwelling of cooler waters reaches the surface is interesting. Maybe just a coincidence though ... I'm also 1000% in favor of an ENSO neutral year for a change, it's been too damn long and it feels like they don't happen as often as they once did! Latest subsurface looks rather Nina ish though, pretty rapid thermocline movement all the sudden: Interesting that in terms of MEI this El Nino might not even meet the official definition of an El Nino ... though for some reason they calculate bi monthly instead of tri monthly periods. Only reaching 1.1 for one period is way less impressive than sst metrics alone (ONI) Edited March 8 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9 (edited) On 3/8/2024 at 7:41 AM, StLweatherjunkie said: The burst of cooling near the Panama canal immediately before upwelling of cooler waters reaches the surface is interesting. Maybe just a coincidence though ... I'm also 1000% in favor of an ENSO neutral year for a change, it's been too damn long and it feels like they don't happen as often as they once did! Latest subsurface looks rather Nina ish though, pretty rapid thermocline movement all the sudden: Interesting that in terms of MEI this El Nino might not even meet the official definition of an El Nino ... though for some reason they calculate bi monthly instead of tri monthly periods. Only reaching 1.1 for one period is way less impressive than sst metrics alone (ONI) Yea I had not even noticed that cooling near Panama. Pretty cool maybe the was the death knell for the thermocline, would have to see it in future examples to know for certain. It seems like CPC is going all in on La Nina though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Early model predictions show us getting close to moderate status while the CFS (I know crazy model) goes close to super Nina status. The PDO state is back to being firmly a -PDO look even though it has taken a little bit of a hit. Also I am all for the MEI being a reasonable look other than just ONI as the main metric. I feel people get too caught up in the idea of ONI values and it dissuades their thoughts on what is actually happening. Yes we had an El Nino and yes the pattern resembled a rather typical El Nino structure but it was no where close to being super level that ONI showed. We had the typical north warm cooler south look we also had the precip show up rather nice and somewhat into typical locations but also rather abrupt in the east (went from the driest september/october to non stop rains through winter). I personally believe the PDO played a large role in how things transpired this year and will continue dominating over ENSO or enhancing certain states of ENSO (La Nina base for now). We still had an active southern jet which seems to not be nearly as affected by mid latitude patterns so that portion of El Nino seems to be largely unaffected for now. The Aleutian low was virtually non existent which should have allowed us a better temp pattern across the US but given the -PDO state we had a ridging pattern that setup much further west than typical allowing things to spill in the west a bit more. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ I know I showed this awhile back but given the MEI and ONI comparison we once again have a step down even as we got close to attaining super status. ONI values were only a few tenths (0.3-.4) lower than 97/98 and 82/83 (only about .2 lower) yet the mei registered was nearly half of those years. In fact even 2015/16 registered an ONI of nearly 2.6 yet had a lower MEI value than of those years so something is seemingly changing. We still will develop El Nino states but to what degree will they have an impact on the overall pattern comes to question, maybe this is just a cyclical thing right now and we are have just two opposing teleconnections. Lastly Im sure Hunga Tunga had a massive role in how things have progressed over the last couple years. Im still unsure of the effects we are seeing and yet to see and how it may have enhanced certain patterns. If I had to take a guess we probably experienced much more pronounced warming throughout Canada then we would have with this El Nino. Sorry for the rant these have just been thoughts going through my head over the winter. Edited March 9 by so_whats_happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Pretty amazing upward surge of the thermocline over the past few weeks. From +5C to -5C in about a month! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I remain impressed at how quickly this El Nino fell apart ... Almost 2.5C of cooling in just 4 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I remain impressed at how quickly this El Nino fell apart ... Almost 2.5C of cooling in just 4 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 25 Meteorologist Share Posted March 25 Monthly TAO data for a whole year for this ENSO event, may update with March or just start a new set for this Nina showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just noticed in the latest update Nino region 1+2 is now at -0.1°C. The cooling is coming and the Nino is falling apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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