Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Raw T jumped from 4.1 to 5.7 as ADT found the eye. However, there's a limit they allow of .5 per hr. While this isn't the final or CI number, if it were, the storm would be a high end cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I almost feel like this storm is moving TOO fast. How many times have we seen big storms rapidly intensify into a mighty 4 or 5 and then weaken before landfall? This thing is rapidly intensifying and bull-rushing the coast. There's no time to pull the heat from its water supply or go through an ERC. It's going to make landfall while it's still getting stronger. I still think it's going to be a CAT4. I guess the best news is that the bullseye is lightly populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Good call on the tor watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Michael became a hurricane at the 11am advisory October 8th with 982mb pressure. It was 140 miles east of Cozumel at that time. It made landfall Oct 10 at 1pm cdt 10 miles nw of Mexico beach with 155mph winds and 919 pressure. It was traveling at 14mph. Idalia became a hurricane this 4am cdt this morning with pressure of 981, way closer to landfall than Michael. It too is traveling at 14mph. Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Tiny eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 That clearing eye has now been persistent for a couple hours. The eye does still seem open, but convection is filling in that exposed quadrant … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 97nm north of Idalia, 42036 is directly in the forecasted path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Another slow motion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 75 minutes apart. It’s hauling, which should limit wind damage due to shorter exposure, but may push a stinger surge(?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Burr said: 75 minutes apart. It’s hauling, which should limit wind damage due to shorter exposure, but may push a stinger surge(?). If that convection wraps fully around that pinhole setting up... I don't want to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 We've had no shortage of intense landfalling hurricanes over the past ~5 years, but we really haven't had this much of a pinhole eye this close to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: We've had no shortage of intense landfalling hurricanes over the past ~5 years, but we really haven't had this much of a pinhole eye this close to landfall. Wrote this on another board - I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: We've had no shortage of intense landfalling hurricanes over the past ~5 years, but we really haven't had this much of a pinhole eye this close to landfall. Wilma comes to mind… but yeah, not seen that in a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I think the eye is actually a lot wider than the little ‘pinhole’ of the clearing evident on IR. Not much time left for this to wrap up and go into RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 In case anyone is looking at landfall locations… probably somewhere in this area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Burr said: I think the eye is actually a lot wider than the little ‘pinhole’ of the clearing evident on IR. Not much time left for this to wrap up and go into RI. The longwave Dvorak is showing a much larger eye. Edited August 30, 2023 by Rich Mac 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) NHC 10pm update…just shy of cat 3 960mb / 110mph. Forward speed up to 18mph Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Per Accuweather, it is looking like landfall will be around low tide at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The rest of the eye is clearing out on infrared, but still ragged and possibly open in a small portion of the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Past 20 hours wide view IR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Tropical Atlantic site been dropping out lately so I found another way to get the vortex from the 961mb drop. Eye is closed, but oval shaped with 12 miles on one axis and 8 on the other. Ragged eye was noted again, no percentages this time. Spoiler oduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 1:58ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023Storm Name: Idalia (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 27A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 1:32:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.33N 84.60WB. Center Fix Location: 138 statute miles (222 km) to the WSW (251°) from Tampa, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,792m (9,160ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 295° at 8kts (From the WNW at 9mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 180° to 0° (S to N)G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 12 nautical milesG. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 1:29:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 321° at 62kts (From the NW at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 1:29:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 80kts (92.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 1:35:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 128° at 92kts (From the SE at 105.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix at 1:37:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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