Cat 4 Idalia | peak 130mph 940mb | post-tropical (but wait)

[tool483]

16 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Oh boy.  First pass through recon mission 11 has hdobs of 970mb and flight level winds of 88kts,  SMFR of only 69kts.  Waiting for Vort message.  Sonde had 972mb.  HDOBS were of the NW quadrant in bound and SE? outbound.

 

It's looking like its going into beast mode yikes, check out those towers around the eyewall, amazing last night this was just a TS

 

 

[MaineJay]

47 minutes ago, TLChip said:

What site do y’all get the microwave scans from? 

Unfortunately, we are down to just 2 ageing satellites for microwave scans it appears. The TROPIC satellites I thought were supposed to pick up the slack, but in looking for that data, I read that there might be a GPS positioning probably or something, so that was a bummer.  

  There was supposed to be more of those satellites, but they were lost in a failed Astra launch a year or two ago.  Might take a bad season to "encourage" more of these types of sats.

[Burr]

5pm update  972mb/100mph

(update thread title?)

 

[TLChip]

46 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Unfortunately

Super crappy, always one of the best ways to see the cane imo. Thanks for the info MJ

[Burr]

5pm discussion.  Official track shifted ~25 miles westward towards the northwest… still further shift possible before landfall

[TLChip]

You can see it’s starting to clear out at the end of this. 

 

 

Also lightning in the eye wall

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

Here we go

This is the vort message that he's referring to in mission 12 first pass. 97 mph surface winds, 118 mph flight level winds. 968 pressure (down from 972 when I left the hospital).  Interesting to note there is concentric eyewalls, 14 miles and 20 miles in diameter.  Winds were on the east side by the way.

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Ragged
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

Sonde data has max wind 127mph at 921 mb which is about 1800 feet. 

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[Sentinel]

23 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Here we go

This is the vort message that he's referring to in mission 12 first pass. 97 mph surface winds, 118 mph flight level winds. 968 pressure (down from 972 when I left the hospital).  Interesting to note there is concentric eyewalls, 14 miles and 20 miles in diameter.  Winds were on the east side by the way.

  Reveal hidden contents

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Ragged
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

Sonde data has max wind 127mph at 921 mb which is about 1800 feet. 

Hospital?

[MaineJay]

Maybe curling east a bit in recent frames, moving right along too.

[NWOhioChaser]

By far the best it’s looked all day. Undergoing RI, clearing eye out.  The saving grace might be its’ quick pace to keep it from getting to Cat 4. And worst case storm surge. 

Edited August 29, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[Neoncyclone]

Going to have a clear eye very soon now, looks like maybe some slight NE wobbles

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[StretchCT]

Down 4mb in under 2 hrs from mission 11.  Only 12 hrs to go.  At this pace it goes down 24mb by landfall. 

Noticed this comment in the vort message, guessing it's bad.

RAGGED PRESENTATION AROUND THE CENTER WITH LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE

ADT going up, but not sharply yet.  

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[Neoncyclone]

1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said:

Going to have a clear eye very soon now, looks like maybe some slight NW wobbles

 

Definitely some NE movement 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[1816]

20 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

By far the best it’s looked all day. Undergoing RI, clearing eye out.  The saving grace might be its’ quick pace to keep it from getting to Cat 4. And worst case storm surge. 

The storm surge forecasts are already ridiculous. 12 foot surge off this thing? Product of the huge shallow water shelf there in the gulf. That's covered in 90 degree water. It's just a bad recipe man. 

[Neoncyclone]

RI is very much underway if these readings are right, NOAA3 getting 963mb

[StretchCT]

35 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Hospital?

Yale, at least 2x per week for the last year.

[StretchCT]

Good night Idalia

[StretchCT]

Mission 12 drop with 965 pressure at 23:01.  Pressure at 21:44 was 968.  3mb in 1 hr 17mins

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[Tater]

18 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Good night Idalia

Looks like some gravity waves propagating out to the NW side. Things are starting crank up.

[StretchCT]

Vortex message from Mission 12. Eye 12NM wide, open in SW. 965mb. Flt level winds 118mph, surface 91mph. 

Spoiler

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 23:34Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 15

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:00:55Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.67N 84.66W
B. Center Fix Location: 162 statute miles (261 km) to the SW (236°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 965mb (28.50 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 340° at 2kts (From the NNW at 2mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix at 22:58:15Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 267° at 78kts (From the W at 89.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (182°) of center fix at 22:57:31Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix at 23:03:28Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 81° at 80kts (From the E at 92.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) of center fix at 23:03:51Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the S (176°) from the flight level center

 

[1816]

1 minute ago, Tater said:

Looks like some gravity waves propagating out to the NW side. Things are starting crank up.

That outflow uscg was talking about earlier is kicking in big time 

[Mainiac]

Just as it was going dark you could see a tiny bit of Idalia’s outflow getting hoovered up by Franklin.

Idalia’s path is looking somewhat similar to Michael, but I think even at this stage Michael was a lot better organized with a much, much larger wind field. 

Edit: Actually looking at the 2018 loop, Michael exploded right before landfall, but had more water to strengthen with less land interaction being further west. 

 

[Burr]

Wait for the last frames, where you can see an eye feature finally revealing in the COC.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Burr

[Rich Mac]

1 hour ago, TLChip said:

You can see it’s starting to clear out at the end of this. 

 

 

Also lightning in the eye wall

 

She's beginning to look more like a 4 than a 2.

[Burr]

965mb / 105mph

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Burr