Cat 4 Idalia | peak 130mph 940mb | post-tropical (but wait)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

a few other 12z takes

 

[MaineJay]

Looks like the overall CDO may have warmed a little since earlier this morning. Still some pretty cold tops rotating around the center though.

[StretchCT]

This vortex message is from 14:29 utc, so I think thats 10am edt.  Key takeaways are:  pressure down one to 978 from last vort, so not crazy RI going on right now, but might be a mb/hr.   Eye is closed, circular and 26nm wide. Max surface wind 80mph and max flight level 82mph.  

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 25

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

 

[Iceresistance]

Is there a link for the SHIPS RI index?

 

EDIT: Nevermind, I found it

Edited August 29, 2023 by Iceresistance

[so_whats_happening]

Once we see that ring of black/grey wrap around the eye we should see things really get going. Seems to be pinching off a little bit of dry air that is still within it. Should happen as we get to evening, bit worried a potentially large eye opens up at the last moment and we just see this go boom but still trying to hold a more conservative approach of cat 3.

[StretchCT]

A little busy in the Tampa office.  15 statements.  No tornado one though.

[StretchCT]

So.... from Tern Bay, Pass-A-Grille to St Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach and Honeymoon Island  will all be underwater.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?inundation#contents

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

So.... from Tern Bay, Pass-A-Grille to St Pete Beach to Clearwater Beach and Honeymoon Island  will all be underwater.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?inundation#contents

With a full moon, I imagine tides are running higher? Not sure there's big tides down here now that I think of it.   But if there is some modest tidal ranges, time of day would be increasingly important.

[Iceresistance]

Idalia is now showing signs of RI, currently at 85 mph and 976 mb.

[Burr]

Thankfully it is moving quickly.  Dry air keeping the intensification slower for a few hours, perhaps?  Every hour could help reduce impacts at landfall.

[Burr]

Do we have a prediction thread for landfall location and intensity?  
 

I’m currently thinking:

Ecofina River (nw of Hampton Springs) / 950mb / 130mph. Strong Cat 3 at landfall.

 

[MaineJay]

33 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Idalia is now showing signs of RI, currently at 85 mph and 976 mb.

I do think she's strengthening, but it also seems like it's kinda pulsing the convection, and then the cloud tops warm until another flare up.

[StretchCT]

Just found out our friends son is living on a sailboat in the Crystal River just south of Yankeetown/Cedar Key.  Makes me pay even more attention to wind fields.  But it looks like they'll get surge and TS to Cat 1 winds which is manageable. 

Last 7 runs of HWRF - timing is all over. Also the wind field is highly variable. But track is fairly consistent. 

 

Spoiler

Compared to HAFS A which trended west. 

Spoiler

HAFS B made one big jump west and has been 

Spoiler

 

[StretchCT]

Ai-RI - much more impressive than past posts.  Max potential of 153kts is higher than prior posts. 

ADT isn't skyrocketing, yet.

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[tool483]

Impressive! Thank you MJ for the link again

This thing is ramping up as expected

Edit: hmm, gif isn't downloading properly. 

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by tool483
no animation

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CMC is an Apalachicola landfall

 

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I do think she's strengthening, but it also seems like it's kinda pulsing the convection, and then the cloud tops warm until another flare up.

The area I marked in Red gives me pretty good pause for concern. It is the beginning of the interaction with the trough and appears to be opening a channel for Outflow.

 

[StretchCT]

Key west flooding?

Tough to know if it's legit though as the web cam at southernmost point isn't showing this. Thinking its another storm.

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[1816]

10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Key west flooding?

Tough to know if it's legit though as the web cam at southernmost point isn't showing this. Thinking its another storm.

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Probably just standard rainfall flooding the streets, drains cant keep up. The southernmost point isn't in a low area that collects rainfall. You'll see that area flood from storm surge. Not an issue here I guess. 

 

Edit: maybe I'll watch the video next time before commenting lol

Edited August 29, 2023 by 1816

[Neoncyclone]

Seemingly only the matter of a couple hours (maybe less) until Idalia clears out a visible eye on IR. 

EDIT: Should also mean RI if not already ongoing.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[StretchCT]

Sat, radar overlay, lat/long.  Time to see if it's moving due north, nnw or nne.

[TLChip]

What site do y’all get the microwave scans from? 

[StretchCT]

10 minutes ago, TLChip said:

What site do y’all get the microwave scans from? 

MJ uses this site. https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[StretchCT]

Oh boy.  First pass through recon mission 11 has hdobs of 970mb and flight level winds of 88kts,  SMFR of only 69kts.  Waiting for Vort message.  Sonde had 972mb.  HDOBS were of the NW quadrant in bound and SE? outbound.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT