Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Rich Mac said: Lol...I was just going to comment on the water vapor loop, but I had it interpreted entirely different. I was focusing in on that north/south band of dry air that just totally succumbed to the moisture. I was wondering if the storm would gulp that dry air in but it doesn't appear to be happening. I was also watching the outflow and it looks to be doing well. Does that mean she's starting to stack and breathe properly? Or...am I totally wrong? As usual 🙂 I wouldn't say you're wrong. I'm looking at that "dryer" area to the north to see why the outflow isn't there, and it's both dry air and some shear. I don't think she's breathing properly on the west/north sides. But it does appear to be moistening up to the north and nw which may allow for some tstorms to continue to wrap around the center of circulation. There's a ridge to the NW which should be fading south or weakening which will also help it develop better outflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 28, 2023 AI-RI not showing overwhelming support for rapid intensification. 42 kts in 36 hrs. At 60kts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 28, 2023 Mandatory evacuation Pinellas County Zone A Also mandatory evacuation in Hillsborough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: AI-RI not showing overwhelming support for rapid intensification. 42 kts in 36 hrs. At 60kts now. Atmospheric dynamics and time to landfall are working in our favor, though the storm is still a max tropical storm. I'm afraid that if she even gets a whiff of clean air, it's off to the races due to those water temps. She's churned up some water but will be moving through 86 to 90 degree water until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 (edited) Hopefully still looking a little ragged tomorrow. Last year Ian looked like he was wobbling but intensified still after hitting jet fuel. Edited August 28, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted August 28, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted August 28, 2023 That sure looks like an eye starting to develop.. Also.. excited to be back for another fall and winter of winter storm tracking! I took a nice long summer vacation.. even did some traveling out west this summer. Jackson Hole, Wyoming.. beautiful! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Let's make a friendly wager. NWS believes it will reach 120-125 mph winds at max. I will bet it reaches Cat 4 strength (130+) easily. We have seen this one too many times. Plus the waters are historically warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 28, 2023 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=10L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF You can loop it at the above link. The center is getting more centered. Compared to two hours ago or this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, mikeysed said: Let's make a friendly wager. NWS believes it will reach 120-125 mph winds at max. I will bet it reaches Cat 4 strength (130+) easily. We have seen this one too many times. Plus the waters are historically warm. Admittedly, I've been leaning this way as well. Add 10-15mph (sadly sometimes more) to the max forecast for storms in the Gulf has been a pretty safe bet as of late. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, mikeysed said: Let's make a friendly wager. NWS believes it will reach 120-125 mph winds at max. I will bet it reaches Cat 4 strength (130+) easily. We have seen this one too many times. Plus the waters are historically warm. I've seen this movie before. There's no way I'm betting against that. In fact, when I heard the initial Cat 2 prediction and saw the projected path, the first thought I had was it was going to cross the Sarasota/Clearwater lat as a Cat 4 then "weaken" to a Cat 2 upon landfall just north of Tampa. It seems that every recent Eastern Gulf hurricane shocks everyone with its rapid intensification and overperformance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 41 minutes ago, Rich Mac said: I've seen this movie before. There's no way I'm betting against that. In fact, when I heard the initial Cat 2 prediction and saw the projected path, the first thought I had was it was going to cross the Sarasota/Clearwater lat as a Cat 4 then "weaken" to a Cat 2 upon landfall just north of Tampa. It seems that every recent Eastern Gulf hurricane shocks everyone with its rapid intensification and overperformance. The fuckin bathwater. It's literally bathwater. It's not fun to swim in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: You can loop it at the above link. The center is getting more centered. Heh - I jinxed it! It can't really start cranking until there's an eyewall like structure. Maybe it's starting on the north side now, maybe it's just playing with me. Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Wager on if we see the eye before 26N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 29, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 29, 2023 11 hours ago, StretchCT said: Cuban space laser When you randomly stop posting we know why.... 2 hours ago, mikeysed said: Let's make a friendly wager. NWS believes it will reach 120-125 mph winds at max. I will bet it reaches Cat 4 strength (130+) easily. We have seen this one too many times. Plus the waters are historically warm. I have been leaning this way for a while. I have a colleague just NW of Tallahassee and I sent them a heads up yesterday that I was rather concerned about this system. It will undoubtedly be a major at LF in my mind and I could see this being.. well... I'd rather not speak of it, or speak it into existence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Wager on if we see the eye before 26N? I’ll take before water is hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Hassaywx1223 said: I’ll take before water is hot Only needs one big gulp of warm moist air over the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: When you randomly stop posting we know why.... yeah well don't quote me then... you may randomly stop posting too. 😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lotta talk about warm water and intensity. What is the fastest a hurricane has ever intensified? Is there a limit, a cap, on how quickly that can happen and what conditions would be needed besides water that is 31c.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 29, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Lotta talk about warm water and intensity. What is the fastest a hurricane has ever intensified? Is there a limit, a cap, on how quickly that can happen and what conditions would be needed besides water that is 31c.? Hurricane Patricia - 2015. Eastern Pacific. Conditions needed - Favorable shear profile (which can include higher shear if positioned properly, thus allowing venting and sometimes better outflow). A vertically stacked storm. Limit - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, TLChip said: Wager on if we see the eye before 26N? 26N makes a lot of sense tbh. She still has to organize and shrug off dry air. My concern is the 180 or so miles between 26N and 29N. The good news is she should pick up speed so if we assume 15mph, she’s looking at about 12 hours in that region before nearing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: What is the fastest a hurricane has ever intensified? Patricia in 2015 is the fastest. Went from TS to Cat 5 in 24 hrs. Peaked at 215mph Light shear, moist environment and water temps 30.5 to 31c https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP202015_Patricia.pdf Not sure how I didn't remember this... what else have I forgotten? Edited August 29, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Western Tip of Cuba just got nuked. Edit: That explosive convection structure is about the same size as Franklin's core. Edited August 29, 2023 by Rich Mac 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 29, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 29, 2023 Side note - if this hits anywhere close to Patricia... Well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The 18z GFS has an odd sense of humor. Idelia’s remnants loop back around and cross Florida and hit the same area as the initial strike as what is potentially a tropical storm. That would be cruel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just pointed out on Franklins thread how quick that intensified. Basically from an 80-85mph hurricane to a 145mph hurricane in 24 hours. Its also down to 926mb and has the lowest pressure of any hurricane in the open Atlantic this far north. See that thread for source. The buoy that Franklin went closest to is 41047. That buoy was reporting water temps from 82 to 84F. The buoy to the north of the M is the West Tampa with water temps of 88. And it comes with a camera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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