Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 BTW the gfs 6z run is just stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Cedar Key completely under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Crystal river area where my friends son is located. It's inland a couple of miles and about to go through another high tide. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Perry FL which is 10 miles or so inland Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: It might be tough finding data on the ground to support the winds that NHC assigned. No doubt there are gusts over 100mph, but I have a feeling I'm going to struggle to find sustained winds of over that. So far I'm correct. They can't find any gusts over 85mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Tarpon Springs - these are going on basically now (12:40) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 40 mile SE of Savannah Greys Reef has TS force winds at 20 meters and gusts to 41 kts at 10ft. Fripp Nearshore off St Helena Island SC is gusting over 36kts. Ferndandina beach also gusted to 34kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Charleston expected to flood, not close to record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1696993090714914957 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 58 minutes ago, Rush said: https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1696993090714914957 That's messed up and very frightening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 Yes, this is Idalia, as a TS, sitting and spinning off the New England Coast for four days, finally dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 NHC disco explains what is going to happen with the classification of Idalia. In short, it will go extra/post tropical due to it's involvement with the front and lack of convection. Then it will release from the front and reform. So don't be surprised when this is classified as post/extra and then tropical. Same name. Same storm. I'm imagining that the front/trough is sucking some of the energy out of it as well. You can see this on the 500/700/850mb maps as the more intense vorticities escape into the trough and come back later around Bermuda. Global model fields show winds increasing on the northwestern side of the frontal boundary during the day as Idalia is pulling away from the coast of North Carolina, and as a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows some strengthening in the short term. Idalia is expected to become fully extratropical by this evening, which is now shown in the official forecast. Winds should begin decreasing tonight, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests that the circulation will continue to be devoid of deep convection, and attached to a front, through at least 36 hours. By 48 hours, the low will reach warmer waters, the front is likely to weaken, and the ECMWF shows deep convection redeveloping. As a result, the official forecast shows Idalia becoming a tropical storm again on Saturday. Intensity-wise, the guidance indicates that the peak winds are likely to fluctuate between 40-45 kt from days 2 through 5. INIT 31/1500Z 33.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 33.6N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 32.8N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 31.7N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 31.1N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 03/0000Z 31.1N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 31.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 34.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: Yes, this is Idalia, as a TS, sitting and spinning off the New England Coast for four days, finally dying. First it was a loop to the south. Now it's a hook northwest. At what point do the models decide a fourth wall break is in-play, lol. In all seriousness, if Idalia retrogrades towards the NE next week, it's probably worth watching as Tuesday is the first day of school for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 Craziness, not very strong. Just some mid 20kt sustained winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) Oh wait until I process the EPS control run... Here it is. Love the way it slows down over NYC area. Edited August 31, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 I know its just one run, but what a run...insane! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 2, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 2, 2023 Even though Idalia is no longer explicitly forecast to transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, NHC advisories will continue until tropical storm conditions diminish on Bermuda and the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued (most likely some time Sunday morning). INIT 02/1500Z 31.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 03/0000Z 31.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/1200Z 32.9N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0000Z 34.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 36.8N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/0000Z 39.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z 40.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 42.3N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 44.3N 58.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 3, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 3, 2023 Remnant Idalia and Gert (right) ASCAT pass nailed Idalia. METOP B and C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 4, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 4, 2023 Idalia with Gert on the eastern side heading into the flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2023 Interesting and good to know. Crazy Uncle gets on the podium. Model performance tracked by Bryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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