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Cat 4 Idalia | peak 130mph 940mb | post-tropical (but wait)


StretchCT

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2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Guess it was a gust that probably didn't get recorded to it's fullest unfortunately.

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I don't know much about storms, but I do know electronics and either the storm went poof as if the Fonz snapped his fingers, or as you said the anemometer is dead.  It can be extremely calm in the eye but you should see a path to calmness.

There is another option as some software will report 0 if there is nothing to report.  This skews stats a lot because you don't know if there is nothing to report or if the device is glitching.

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8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If I remember correctly it was supposed to start the more NNE/NE movement just before landfall should still be right on track. Should allow Tallahassee to be just outside of the main area of strongest winds. They could still easily get hurricane force but the Cat2 and above will be in a relatively tiny area which is a good thing.

Latest frames show convection is blowing up on the SW side and causing it to go over the eye a bit.

You were right - I should know better than disagreeing with the NHC! 😁

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It might be tough finding data on the ground to support the winds that NHC assigned.  No doubt there are gusts over 100mph, but I have a feeling  I'm going to struggle to find sustained winds of over that.  

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8 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

It might be tough finding data on the ground to support the winds that NHC assigned.  No doubt there are gusts over 100mph, but I have a feeling  I'm going to struggle to find sustained winds of over that.  

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I never had one, but I would assume that personal weather stations would still record data even if there is no connectivity to the internet, right? 

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Perry airport  sustained of 62 mph and gusts of 85

None of the other "local"  airports have even sustained TS force winds.  And I went through their history.

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none of these in the Crystal River/Cedar Key area either.  Though some have gusts in the 40s

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Out of the Tampa area, only St Pete had TS sustained winds, at 39mph, so right on that line.  Most of the others had gusts in the 40s and some low 50s.

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19 minutes ago, Burr said:

You were right - I should know better than disagreeing with the NHC! 😁

lol you could actually see the shear earlier so it was just a matter of when the storm hit it. They do know their stuff though!

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40 minutes ago, clm said:

I never had one, but I would assume that personal weather stations would still record data even if there is no connectivity to the internet, right? 

It would have to come with a data log, which might be powered separately. The highs/lows would still be captured though. 

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11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

KTNF1 back reporting winds!  Who knows, maybe it was that calm?!. Glitchy, like @clm suggests?

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On a serious note.  That graph indicates more of a glitch.  Could be a network issue, device issue, etc....  Kind of like when you can't reach a website, you try again the next minute and you can get to it.  I have been fishing since I was a kid and had winds stop but there was always a slow down period unless I moved the boat in a cove, on the other side of trees, etc....  The latter was the only way to get normal winds to stop abruptly.  I cannot imagine TS or Hurricane winds stopping that abruptly.

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Looking at buoys - in kts where 34kts is TS

Old Port Tampa did make it to 40kts and a 47kt gust.

St Pete with 33kts sus 42kts gusts

Middle Bay got to 34kts sus 43kts gustss

WFS Central buoy 35kts/49kts

Clearwater Beach 43/50

Fred Howard 39/49

Cedar Key 41/50

West Tampa (112nw wnw of Tampa) 49/71

5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure at 42036

Keaton Beach, below, right in the path 53/67

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

These are from an hour or so ago after landfall. Winds on radar still over 100 mph.  Approx altitude of 3500’

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That's the negative of the fast movers. Yea, less rain but those high winds get further inland before weakening. That'll be the story with this. 

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Some surge obs. Predicted is the tidal norm. So at the time below there was about a 9 ft surge.  So based on the below, I think the surge predictions from Cedar Key south were pretty good. There aren't any stations north of Cedar Key. 

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5ft surge at Clearwater.  That could be flooding. 

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Many of the reports I'm seeing about flooding on Twitter aren't actually from this storm, so it's been really difficult to get this info.  But Bayshore Blvd is definitely flooded.  Tampa Int'l is shutdown and partially flooded. 

So far it doesn't seem catastrophic by any nature in Tampa area.  Some damage to causeways and properties closest to the bay though.

There's still another king tide early this afternoon to contend with.

 

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There are some areas experiencing major or moderate flooding.  There are others being shown on Twitter, like Naples and Ft Meyers that are looking catastrophic.  As you can see Naples might be legit as its moderate, Ft Meyers might not be. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/

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Edited by StretchCT
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