Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like the eye is pretty close to 42036. Bottomed at 973mb with sustained winds of 50kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 hours ago, Rich Mac said: I almost feel like this storm is moving TOO fast. How many times have we seen big storms rapidly intensify into a mighty 4 or 5 and then weaken before landfall? This thing is rapidly intensifying and bull-rushing the coast. There's no time to pull the heat from its water supply or go through an ERC. It's going to make landfall while it's still getting stronger. I still think it's going to be a CAT4. I guess the best news is that the bullseye is lightly populated. Double edged sword on the whole speed thing. Once it rushes on land its going to move over more towns and populated areas more quickly before it has a chance to weaken. Meaning more wind damage further inland. Instead of the usual sitting right on the coast forever shedding energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like its turning now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lots of lightning in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 5am update MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Quote 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300858 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 ...IDALIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE NEARING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 84.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay * St. Catherine's Sound to South Santee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key * West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to St. Catherine's Sound Georgia * Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound * Edisto Beach to South Santee River A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Additional warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located by Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.1 West. Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida this morning. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Idalia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches) based on aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft Tampa Bay...4-6 ft Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...2-4 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers...2-4 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's River...1-3 ft Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...1-3 ft Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida soon, with tropical storm conditions spreading northward and westward through this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with considerable impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across west-central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with the tornado risk shifting toward the coastal Carolinas this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Edited August 30, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Some dry air entering from the north and the eye filled in a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 KTNF1 is very close to projected landfall. Currently 50nm away. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ktnf1 TS force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, StretchCT said: NE quadrant being weakest could mitigate a lot of the worst impacts. I'm skeptical we see cat 4 type damage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 Again, not sure of the tidal ranges in this area. But landfall should be just about an hour after low tide, so that's good. I can barely even find towns on that part of the coast, so that's also a plus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Almost there - trying to get better shot. It's just a little early for a sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Again, not sure if the tidal ranges in this area. But landfall should be just about an hour after low tide, so that's good. I can barely even find towns on that part of the coast, so that's also a plus. Yeah, most of those counties have from 12,000 to 40,000 people. Not many are on the coast, mostly swamp, marsh, mangroves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 So far this channel portrays the eye nearing the coastline the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Almost there - its moving so fast I may miss it. And I'm now getting a message that the radar is down Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 30, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, StretchCT said: So far this channel portrays the eye nearing the coastline the best. "ASH" from RAMMB shows it nicely as well. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1147.90478515625&y=702&z=2&angle=0&im=36&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=50&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&p[0]=eumetsat_ash&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Got lucky here, unpopulated and moved to fast to have a ERC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 So I'm watching the news & some keep calling it a CAT 4 when it's not. Annoying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Landfall just south of Perry Florida. A few chasers from the network are in perfect position. $12.99 a month radar omegas best version is worth it everything and I mean everything is there worth every penny for people like us screenRecording.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Land Ho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Tallahasee radar doesn't quite get the other side of the eye well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Sunrise and landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Wow, blink and you’ll miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 High wind warning all the way to the Georgia border. Very impressive with as fast as it’s moving to have that strong of winds inland. A lot of the storms recently have been moving pretty slow comparatively at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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