mikeysed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Well looks like we all were right... rapid intensification and now a Cat 4 projected. What a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Midnight NHC update. No official changes in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Burr said: Last 3 hours. Not seeing the move to the nne yet, either. If I remember correctly it was supposed to start the more NNE/NE movement just before landfall should still be right on track. Should allow Tallahassee to be just outside of the main area of strongest winds. They could still easily get hurricane force but the Cat2 and above will be in a relatively tiny area which is a good thing. Latest frames show convection is blowing up on the SW side and causing it to go over the eye a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Air Force recon mission inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: If I remember correctly it was supposed to start the more NNE/NE movement just before landfall should still be right on track. Should allow Tallahassee to be just outside of the main area of strongest winds. They could still easily get hurricane force but the Cat2 and above will be in a relatively tiny area which is a good thing. Latest frames show convection is blowing up on the SW side and causing it to go over the eye a bit. Definitely appears to kick back to the east in the last few frames… start of a trend or just a wobble? Time will tell! Can we get a show of hands to poll our members? Thumbs up if you think this hits closer to Aligator Point than the center of the NHC track on the right. And thumbs down if NHC is closer! Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Burr said: Definitely appears to kick back to the east in the last few frames… start of a trend or just a wobble? Time will tell! Can we get a show of hands to poll our members? Thumbs up if you think this hits closer to Aligator Point than the center of the NHC track on the right. And thumbs down if NHC is closer! It looks as though land will play a role in bringing this further east in time. So far it has been edging ever so NNE with time from Cuba and just skirting along the coast with some of the more TS like conditions. Once we start to have more interaction with land things will push east a bit. Also Franklin was a little slower to kick east then models had but the ridging in between Idalia and Franklin is breaking down a bit which should also help in aiding the slight turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 No change to strength in the 1am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Appears to be holding steady so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Hunting inbound from the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Two readings over 96 knots - I do believe we will have a Cat 3 at the 2am update. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Low pressure 944mb? Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Category 3. 945mb/120mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 948mb on dropsonde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Still calling for more strengthening to Cat 4 before landfall. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) I didn’t notice earlier, but it looks like there was a burst of gravity waves dispersing on the south side just after the cold tops collapsed. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 And with that observation… good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Haven’t actually gone to bed… but do I see more gravity waves on the south side. Holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Feels like it's starting the NNE jog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The answer is, “Yes, and stop trying to distract us from the pivot to the NNE that you were skeptical about a couple hours ago.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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