Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 168 ish more miles to go. It's currently about 105 miles west of St Pete. 9h20min until landfall at the current speed and its 10:40. So around 7-8am edt depending if it speeds up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 One of the drops from mission 12 on the east side. Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 976mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph) 966mb 155° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph) 947mb 170° (from the S) 104 knots (120 mph) 940mb 175° (from the S) 102 knots (117 mph) 934mb 175° (from the S) 109 knots (125 mph) 920mb 180° (from the S) 114 knots (131 mph) 908mb 180° (from the S) 104 knots (120 mph) 880mb 180° (from the S) 106 knots (122 mph) 869mb 185° (from the S) 100 knots (115 mph) 850mb 185° (from the S) 97 knots (112 mph) 761mb 200° (from the SSW) 99 knots (114 mph) Do we agree that land, particularly in the formation it's heading to, tightens up the storm? Or is that just something I heard once from JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Do we agree that land, particularly in the formation it's heading to, tightens up the storm? Or is that just something I heard once from JB. Do not know if it tightens up the storm, but the curvature doesn’t help alleviate the storm surge. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Seems a little weak and early for an ERC - wxtwitter is abuzz with speculation due to these bands. To me its just spirally still. Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Last 3 hours. Not seeing the move to the nne yet, either. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 Latest NHC update now has a landfalling Category 4 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST 24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 958mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Latest NHC update now has a landfalling Category 4 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST 24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH That would be landfall here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) Gusts for these are in the 20-30kt range. High tide varies, but basically between midnight and 2am. When does the surge threat pass? The storm is already west of these areas, I suppose the wind shift to the west isn't going to help. Edit: if you read the warnings it says through Thursday morning Some spots still expected to flood Edited August 30, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 30, 2023 Ok - onto Worldle, the Mini and Queen Bee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) With it being at 960mb at last update. It's worth noting that models are initiating mostly at 980's mb for same time frame. Is that a trend that sticks? If so, not good news. 930's-40's I think is a real possibility. Edited August 30, 2023 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Grace said: With it being at 960mb at last update. It's worth noting that models are initiating mostly at 980's mb for same time frame. Is that a trend that sticks? If so, not good news Agreed. I don’t pretend to be a hurricane expert, but from my experience the ones that are rapidly intensifying as they make landfall end up being some of the hardest hitters. Not a good trend. Edited August 30, 2023 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Columbusbuckeye said: Agreed. I don’t pretend to be a hurricane expert, but from my experience the ones that are rapidly intensifying as they make landfall end up being some of the hardest hitters. Not a good trend. Not good at all. Terrible trend towards these types of storms the past couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) This storm is looking more and more impressive on the satellite Edited August 30, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Grace said: With it being at 960mb at last update. It's worth noting that models are initiating mostly at 980's mb for same time frame. Is that a trend that sticks? If so, not good news. 930's-40's I think is a real possibility. I believe there is an issue with global deterministic models and their ability to resolve initial MSLP w/respect to tropical cyclones. I'll either verify or disprove this when I get to work in 5 hours but this storm does mean business! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Not good at all. Terrible trend towards these types of storms the past couple of years Yep. 8th major hurricane in GOM since 2017, which is insane! Of those 8, only one has been weaker then Category 4 if this one pans out. Edited August 30, 2023 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 33 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Putting in the coordinates to Google and merging them on my phone to the best of my limited availability shows this… where it is in the gulf and where they’re predicting the landfall. Edited August 30, 2023 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lightning starting in the eye wall in the last few minutes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 So the skeptic in me believes the center will still make landfall west of the projected path … unless some serious eastward movement starts soon…. Based just on my own observations of past track and the limited time/distance remaining til landfall. White dashed line is where I’ve seen it going since passing west of Captiva. White straight line is where it would have to go to hit the predicted landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Lightning starting in the eye wall in the last few minutes. Coldest cloud tops we’ve seen in a while where those lightning strikes occurred. Definite signs of strengthening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Burr said: Coldest cloud tops we’ve seen in a while where those lightning strikes occurred. Definite signs of strengthening again. This is getting ready to blow its top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: This is getting ready to blow its top. The eye really cleared out in the last few frames, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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