July 8 -15, 2023 | Northeast Mid Atlantic Flood Event

[TheRex]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Another one from Ludlow at the bottom of Okemo road. Horrible.

Looks as though the US Post Office may have drying out to do.

[StretchCT]

Rain finally cleared CT. Might be a while for NY and VT.  Parts of NH might start seeing some heavy rains too. 

[StretchCT]

Well, this is downtown Ludlow. down by Elm Street and Main.

This is from google earth of the same spot

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by StretchCT

[TheRex]

36 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Well, this is downtown Ludlow. down by Elm Street and Main.

This is from google earth of the same spot

 

 

That first video was tough to watch as that guy comments about all his tools being gone.  I couldn't imagine watching my livelihood float away.  

 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, TheRex said:

Looks like I forgot to add WPS discussion earlier.  

WPC discos don't post properly.  I think you gotta do it in "plain text". And then it looks like one paragraph.  

Not sure why it does that.

Only 0.62" of rain here. Feel fortunate seeing the deluge in VT.  

Never enjoy seeing such devastation.

[TheRex]

As of 7:45 pm, we have 2.29" of rain in my rain gauge.  Looking at other rain gauges online, I see rain gauges with over 5" of rain that are only 6 miles to my east.  Seems like the heaviest rain ran up the Appalachian Mountains.

[TheRex]

22 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

WPC discos don't post properly.  I think you gotta do it in "plain text". And then it looks like one paragraph.  

Not sure why it does that.

Only 0.62" of rain here. Feel fortunate seeing the deluge in VT.  

Never enjoy seeing such devastation.

So I'll try again and see if I can get it to work.

Quote

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jul 10 2023 - 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF VERMONT...
...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...

...16Z Update...

...Northeast...

Several changes to note as we progress through this very busy
Monday. The High Risk area was extended southward to cover the
rest of southern Vermont with the Special Update. No big changes
were made to the High Risk area since that special update.
Remarkably, the latest 12Z HREF guidance has increased 100-year
ARI exceedance probabilities to over 80% now near the northwest
corner of VT, near St. Albans, with over 70% chances from
Burlington north to near the Canadian border along I-89 to near
the spine of the Green Mtns.

The surrounding Moderate Risk area was trimmed from the southwest
to eliminate northwestern CT and the southwest corner of MA.
Unfortunately the amount of trimming couldn't continue to follow
the radar signature because the surface low driving this continues
to strengthen and will pivot more Atlantic moisture into New
England through tonight, so the back edge of the rain for western
MA, VT, and NH is unlikely to continue to progress as daytime
heating allows more widely scattered convection to begin
redeveloping behind the plume of moisture. The heavy rain
advancing to the west of Boston, including Worcester is likely to
produce flash flooding, so the Moderate Risk area was expanded
eastward for those storms moving through over the next couple
hours. In similar fashion, for eastern CT (and eventually RI once
the main band of storms moves through) while the rain has stopped
here for now, additional convection is expected to form through
the afternoon with daytime heating, and with very low FFGs, still
could result in additional flash flooding, though nowhere to the
extent to what has already occurred. By around sunset with
diminishing solar heating so too will the flash flood threat from
any afternoon storms.

No changes were made to the Slight Risk area from MA north, with
trims on the southwestern edge out of southern NY and western CT
made. With a nearly stationary band of heavy rain set up in the
eastern Lake Ontario region down through Syracuse due to the
potent upper low pivoting southwest of that region, the Slight
Risk area was expanded westward until that convection dissipates.
Recent radar trends have been showing the band strengthening, so
this may take several hours.

For similar reasons, the possibility of widely scattered, but
potentially strong afternoon storms this afternoon for southern NY
and eastern Long Islands has prompted keeping the Marginal Risk
largely the same.
 

 

[StretchCT]

Montpellier

Barre

 

[StretchCT]

 

[TheRex]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Montpellier

Barre

 

Just a week ago my wife and I ate at Sarducci's in Montpelier which has a patio that pretty much is sitting above the Winooski.  Then we drove around town a before we left because I find it such a cute place and my favorite state capital city.  It will take awhile for the town to get over this storm.

 

[TheRex]

The northern Green Mountains road closures are numerous tonight.

[StretchCT]

2nd highest crest for the Winooski.

 

[StretchCT]

Otter Creek looks like it overshot it's forecast. Seems the rain has tapered off. There still is some in NY state that might rotate through though.

[TheRex]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Otter Creek looks like it overshot it's forecast. Seems the rain has tapered off. There still is some in NY state that might rotate through though.

WPC expects those rains in NY to move eastward and drop rain in already hard hit areas.  The rain has picked up here tonight and is probably the hardest we've seen all day.

Quote

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
911 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jul 11 2023 - 12Z Tue Jul 11 2023

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND VERMONT...
...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...

...New England and Upstate New York...

A closed upper-low (500 mb) over Upstate NY will continue to pivot
very slowly eastward through overnight, driving additional totals
of 2-6" across already hard hit areas of the Northeast. These
totals are most likely across the HIGH risk area, which has been
slightly reduced with the evening update (along the southern end)
while still encompassing much of the Champlain Valley and Vermont.
With PWs of 1.7-1.9" (around +2 sigma according to the NAEFS
ensemble tables and above the 90th percentile from the SPC
sounding climatology), modest 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE through a
deeply saturated column, and warm cloud depths above 11,000 ft,
warm/efficient rainfall rates as high as 1-2"/hr will continue
overnight.

These rates in themselves will be enough to overwhelm soils to
result in runoff and flash flooding, but pre-saturated grounds
will result in extremely efficient runoff from any additional
rainfall. 14-day rainfall from AHPS has been 200-300% of normal
across much of central and northern New England, leading to USGS
streamflow anomalies that are almost uniformly above the 90th
percentile, and in some places are well above all-time record
flows. This has also resulted in FFG that is as low as 0.5",
further indicating the sensitivity of the local soils. The HREF
ensemble probabilities also continue to be concerning on their own
overnight, with HREF neighborhood probabilities reaching of 40-80%
for the 3" threshold, and 20-40% for the 5" (concentrated over the
HIGH risk area). The HREF EAS probabilities provide increased
confidence in the area of greatest concern, with 30-60% values for
the 1" threshold (centered over the HIGH risk area). The western
edge of the SLGT and MOD risk areas will clear the quickest into
the overnight hours, but the pivoting upper-low will allow for the
extended residence time over the HIGH risk area that will be
capable of generating the highest totals in association with with
favorable topographic forcing. The areas to the east of the HIGH
risk (New Hampshire into Maine) will also see rainfall gradually
end from west to east in association with a developing dry slot,
but the residence time will be a bit longer (which is reflected by
the extension of the MOD risk to the east).

 

[StretchCT]

One last look at Montpelier

 

[StretchCT]

Adks and Ticonderoga area getting dumped on now. One hour and reflectivity. 

[StretchCT]

The dam they reference above has never topped off before so they have no way of knowing what will happen once the water reaches the spillway or they have to release.  As of 930am the officials are reporting now only 3 feet left.  Praying that if there is a release or spillover, that the water doesn't reach second floors since that seems to be the only remaining place of refuge.  It's going to be close

Monitoring hourly at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb_62614=on&cb_62615=on&format=gif_stats&site_no=04285000&legacy=1&period=&begin_date=2023-07-10&end_date=2023-07-12

Edited July 11, 2023 by StretchCT

[telejunkie]

Ended up with just over 4.5" over about a 30 hour period. Probably biggest saving grace here, besides not seeing the 6"+ totals they saw on the east side of the Green Mtns, was the fact that our creeks were not running high beforehand. Only got one fire call to pump out a basement. In comparison, we were running the whole day during Irene trying to keep up with road closures and pumping basements. We got a similar storm total from Irene, but our basins were already full from a Nor' Easter just prior to Irene hitting. We definitely lucked out this time.

The east side of the Greens got dumped on over the weekend and water levels were already running high. Below was Burlington's forecast prior to the event. Spot on for my area, but way underestimated for the east side of the state.

Edited July 11, 2023 by telejunkie

[TheRex]

Lots of road closures and I wonder how many of those are water over the road vs roadways being washed away.  I may be difficult to get around after the water goes down.

[telejunkie]

Can't seem to get the Spotter Reports to flow correctly so here is a link to Burlington's storm totals page:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/spotterReports

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by telejunkie

[TheRex]

8 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Ended up with just over 4.5" over about a 30 hour period. Probably biggest saving grace here, besides not seeing the 6"+ totals they saw on the east side of the Green Mtns, was the fact that our creeks were not running high beforehand. Only got one fire call to pump out a basement. In comparison, we were running the whole day during Irene trying to keep up with road closures and pumping basements. We definitely lucked out.

The east side of the Greens got dumped on over the weekend and water levels were already running high. Below was Burlington's forecast prior to the event. Spot on for my area, but way underestimated for the east side of the state.

We were lucky here as we only got 2.82" of rain from the storm.  Luckily we never got caught in a downpour that lasted very long.

The NWS has taken out the chance of heavy rain with storms for my area and we even have the sun trying to make an appearance.

[telejunkie]

3 minutes ago, TheRex said:

Lots of road closures and I wonder how many of those are water over the road vs roadways being washed away.  I may be difficult to get around after the water goes down.

Heard Waterbury got hit particularly hard. How did your wife's company do?

[TheRex]

9 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Heard Waterbury got hit particularly hard. How did your wife's company do?

She works at the VT State Office Complex which got hit bad during Irene because the Winooski River runs behind the complex.  Supposedly they did a lot of upgrades since Irene to keep it from flooding.  She's home today but I haven't heard from her how the building fared.  I do know the state's emergency operation center is located in the building and they evacuated but supposedly that was so workers would not be stuck at the building if roads around it were flooded.  

[TheRex]

VT's governor hiked part of the way to work today.

[StretchCT]

I vaguely remember watching a PBS show on the safest places for climate change.  Most of them were in the Northeast.  It's crazy that this map has the safest county adjacent to Montpelier, which didn't make the list of safest places. Cause I was going to raz them about this... but now I can't because they were