Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 It was indeed a direct hit for Perryton. They're currently in a 15% hatched for hail tomorrow with a 2% tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Looking at CAMs tomorrow looks like a pretty serious overnight event for N OK. Could be potential for another moderate risk imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Total of 6 tornadoes in Ohio from last night (Thursday). 4 EF2's, 1 EF1, and 1EF0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 (edited) New day 2 has enhanced risk for wind for parts of the south. Edited June 17, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 (edited) New day 1 still enhanced. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across the southern and central Plains. Wind gusts above 70 knots and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The severe threat could reach the Ark-La-Tex after midnight. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected in Florida, and along parts of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Southern Plains... A shortwave trough will move across the southern and central Rockies today towards a moist and unstable airmass in the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas near a dryline that will extend northward into eastern Colorado. Low-level convergence will increase along the dryline as surface temperatures warm during the day. This should result in convective initiation in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide during the early afternoon. The convection is forecast to expand in coverage, and develop into an MCS during the late afternoon and early evening. The MCS is forecast to track east-southeastward from southeast Colorado into southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough, is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains today. Ahead of this feature, a moist and very unstable airmass will be in place form the Texas Panhandle extending east-southeastward across much of Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely reaching the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition to an impressive thermodynamic environment, kinematics will improve during the day as the mid-level jet approaches. By late afternoon, RAP forecast soundings along the track of the expected MCS have supercell wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will be very favorable for large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells, associated with discrete cells that develop ahead of the track of the MCS. A tornado, wind-damage and hail threat is also expected to develop with supercells embedded within the MCS. The greatest tornado threat is forecast in northwest Oklahoma, where low-level shear will steadily ramp up during the early to mid evening. As the MCS organizes and moves southeastward into the strong instability, supercells and bowing line segments are expected. The wind-damage potential will likely increase during the early to mid evening as the MCS accelerates east-southeastward in the southern Plains. Wind gusts above 70 knots will become possible with cells near the leading edge of the MCS during the evening. The linear MCS is expected to move across central Oklahoma by late evening, and could reach the western Ozarks or Ark-La-Tex during the overnight period. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast into Florida... An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the eastern Gulf Coast states today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida where dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. It appears that an outflow boundary will be in place in southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, where low-level convergence will become maximized during the day. As surface temperatures warm near this boundary, thunderstorms are expected to form around midday. These storms will move southeastward toward the immediate coastal areas with a severe threat likely developing. RAP forecast soundings this afternoon from Biloxi, Mississippi eastward into the Florida Panhandle have MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates between 700 and 500 mb. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range should support supercell development with isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cells. A wind-damage threat will also be likely. Further east across Florida, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Thunderstorm development will take place along sea-breeze boundaries as temperatures warm during the day. A few thunderstorms will also develop further inland. RAP forecast soundings in central Florida have MLCAPE peaking around 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 m shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Jirak.. 06/17/2023 Edited June 17, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 In the 30 hatched wind here. This could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 (edited) I suspect we’re gonna see something more like NAM/3km NAM moisture-wise given that the wet bias is the way to go right now. It also proved to be the correct idea back on Thursday. HRRR is aggressive with mixing (as usual) which keeps most of the northern Texas panhandle out of the worst of it. Edited June 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 This MCS was not expected to push this far east this morning nor survive this long. Might kill our severe chances if we don't destabilize today. On the flip side, could make things more interesting if we do destabilize and there's a remnant boundary this afternoon. Definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 Remnant outflow boundary oriented southwest-northeast across the TX Panhandle. May be a feature to watch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 (edited) Starting out the day with high severe (i.e., non tornadic) probabilities across the board. Edited June 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 17, 2023 The atmosphere appears to be recovering pretty well here. Got mid to upper 60 dews just off to my south, which should slowly advect northward. Gonna be interesting to see if we can get something on any remnant boundaries from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Main show could be starting soon. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172051Z - 172245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large to very large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorm development is likely to occur along a dryline that extends through the central Texas Panhandle north across the western OK Panhandle over the next couple of hours, within a moderate-strongly unstable environment and 50-60 kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail will be possible given very steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, and damaging gusts will also be possible. Some potential will exist for low-level rotation and a tornado or two as low-level hodographs become more favorable towards early evening. With time, storms are likely to merge into an eastward-moving MCS capable of all severe hazards and an increasing risk for significant severe wind gusts. Short-term trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Ive been blissfully unaware of heatburts until now. I watched a video about the heatburst in Kopperl, TX where it went from 70F-140F and stayed that way for several hours. Pretty crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Tornado watch up but the possible winds and hail is crazy! Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southwest Kansas Western Oklahoma and Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A QLCS will sweep east from southeast Colorado and the Raton Mesa, with a few discrete supercells expected ahead of it in the Panhandles to western Oklahoma. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Liberal KS to 45 miles southwest of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325...WW 326... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Confirmed tornado NW of Pensacola FL. Also a tornado warning about to enter the OK panhandle. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mobile AL 451 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama... Central Escambia County in northwestern Florida... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 450 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 12 miles west of Gonzalez, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Baldwin and central Escambia Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Couple of tornado warnings in the OK panhandle now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Tornado warned cell approaching Beaver OK means business. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 604 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 OKC007-172330- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-230617T2330Z/ Beaver OK- 604 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN BEAVER COUNTY... At 604 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Floris, or 12 miles west of Beaver, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beaver, Forgan, Mocane and Floris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Tornado warned cell approaching Beaver OK means business. That cells confirmed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Just now, ElectricStorm said: That cells confirmed now Sure is. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 OKC007-172330- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-230617T2330Z/ Beaver OK- 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BEAVER COUNTY... At 616 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles south of Floris, or 9 miles west of Beaver, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beaver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Almost to Beaver. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Amarillo TX 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Beaver County in the Panhandle of Oklahoma... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 619 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles west of Beaver, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Beaver and Knowles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 (edited) Edited June 17, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Confirmed tornado with strong couplet south of Aspermont, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Beaver cell not confirmed anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Beaver cell not confirmed anymore. Cell over Beaver now and holy hell grapefruit sized hail!!! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 633 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 OKC007-180015- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230618T0015Z/ Beaver OK- 633 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BEAVER COUNTY... At 633 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Beaver, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beaver and Knowles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 There's been a 3" hail report with that Beaver cell. Quote Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Amarillo TX 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0622 PM Hail 5 SE Floris 36.80N 100.65W 06/17/2023 M3.00 inch Beaver OK Trained Spotter report submitted via spotter network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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