June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence

[Chinook]

There are many storms trying to develop into supercells, possible tornado Caledonia OH

 

[Crowbar]

Storms firing up in Indiana - will be coming into a favorable environment.  Mid 80s temp, high 60s humidity, sun out here in Central Ohio

[Chinook]

There is a large tornado watch that covers a lot of Ohio and Pennsylvania

[Hiramite]

That’s a lot of lighting. (NE OH)

 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Hiramite

[junior]

Hmm hoping we get some rain down here. Didn't except a tornado watch so close.

[Chinook]

possible tornadoes/confirmed tornadoes

 

[Neoncyclone]

Got a pretty significant-looking supercell in OH, velocity has looked better organized from the last few scans. Looks like a very populated region. 

[Neoncyclone]

The other supercell in OH looks even better on velocity and maybe equally as populated, not ideal. This storm is sharing space with other storms however which could potentially help, although it looks semi-discrete enough.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Really hoping I can get a couple hours of clear skies tonight for the Perseids

[junior]

58 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Really hoping I can get a couple hours of clear skies tonight for the Perseids

Same. Got a brief shower here but its clearing up nicely.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Way too close for comfort for Athens/Ohio University

[ClicheVortex2014]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Way too close for comfort for Athens/Ohio University

oof. My roommates and I looked at an apartment near here.

Edited August 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

New tornado warning east of the Athens and it's confirmed.

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
758 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

The National Weather Service in Charleston West Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  East central Athens County in southeastern Ohio...

* Until 815 PM EDT.

* At 758 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located 8 miles north
  of Coolville, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Washington and east central Athens Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3928 8189 3933 8190 3939 8171 3934 8167
      3927 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 260DEG 28KT 3933 8182

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by snowlover2

[Neoncyclone]

Phew

[Neoncyclone]

Things are really ramping up... Likely large tornado doing considerable damage south of Washington, PA.

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[Chinook]

It has been a day of quite a few supercells and confirmed tornadoes. Definitely some areas of damage in OH, PA, NY and other areas. The jet stream just seems to keep going these days, when normally the jet stream is quite weak and severe storms are random.

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by Chinook

[ClicheVortex2014]

SE OH did some things today

 

[snowlover2]

ILN has a very nice write up in the AFD concerning late tonight/tomorrow's heavy rain and severe weather threat.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The sensible weather locally will change rather dramatically
from the near to short term period as a deepening closed low
with a positively-tilted trof axis becomes more neutrally tilted
as it pivots from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly by late
Monday.

To put it mildly, this is a rather atypical setup/evolution for
the region for mid August, with a pronounced deep/strong system
migrating this far S during the late summer. This system, which
has been relatively-well advertised for days, will bring with
it anomalously strong deep-layer wind fields and strong forcing,
which will overspread the OH Vly late tonight into the day on
Monday. With the approach of the midlevel low, increasing
midlevel flow will overspread the region from the W late
tonight, with a unseasonably robust LLJ nosing to the ENE from
the mid MS Rvr Vly into the srn OH Vly by Monday morning. H8/H9
wind fields will be 30-40 kts at ILN by mid morning, which will
be near the top-end of recorded H8/H9 flow for mid August, per
sounding climatology. This will coincide with 95th+ percentile
PWATs, too. Resulting midlevel mass and moisture convergence
will be impressive, especially by mid August standards. This
will promote the development of one or more expansive clusters
of SHRA/TSRA, which will approach/move into the Tri-State/EC IN
during the latter half of the overnight tonight. This activity,
while it will be progressive in nature (owing to the
strengthening steering-layer flow), will coincide with
tremendous moisture flux into the region as well, with PWATs
nearing or exceeding 2" locally (~200% seasonal norms). So
while the activity late tonight into Monday morning will be
progressive, rain rates will be efficient due to the
strong/broad forcing amidst a saturating profile. And as such,
the AM activity will pose mainly a heavy rain/localized
flooding threat, especially should convective rates be
maintained for any extended period of time over one area. While
this will possible just about anywhere, it will be /most/
favored near/S of I-70 through mid morning, where many areas
could see a very quick inch + of rain.

Beyond mid-morning, convective evolution naturally becomes
murkier. Following the early day "batch" of SHRA/TSRA, focus
will shift back to the W of the immediate local area to ern/NE
IL where the center of a broad area of low pressure will be
positioned. Although the LL and midlevel wind fields are
impressive, the broad nature of the sfc low itself may create
somewhat weaker sfc winds than would otherwise be expected in
this type of setup. The evolution and shape of the sfc pressure
pattern will be incredibly important as we progress into the
afternoon/evening as any more focused sfc low center would act
to not only enhance sfc flow on the mesoscale, but could act to
back sfc flow to more southerly (opposed to SW) immediately
ahead of the low itself. This will come into play in terms of
expected threats as convection redevelops back to the W in cntrl
IN past mid afternoon in a strongly-forced environment. What
remains relatively lacking in all of this are two separate but
equally-important things. 1) With the rather diffuse sfc
pressure pattern in place, with one or more (convectively-
generated) low centers, the sfc flow may become predominantly
SW even ahead of the front, meaning that, despite the strong
forcing, LL convergence will be /somewhat/ weaker. This may
also contribute to less directional shear in the lowest 1km. And
2) uncertainties exist in just how much we are able to
destabilize again in the wake of morning convection. We have
seen this evolution play out time and time again where the
instby is not able to recover quite enough to materialize a
widespread severe threat after morning activity. Despite the
expected widespread cloud cover (courtesy of the tremendously-
saturated profile), what differs about this setup is that influx
of better instby will be aided by the aforementioned strong
LL/ML flow fields. This should allow for solid theta-e
advection /back/ into the ILN FA from the SW during early/mid
afternoon, essentially replenishing some of the instby that was
scoured out by AM activity... even without the aid of
sunshine or a substantial increase in sfc temps.

So with all of this said, airmass destabilization should occur
in the wake of AM convection amidst large-scale ascent and
unseasonably strong vertical shear (which will support storm
organization). With the LL bulk shear vector at about 260
degrees at ~30kts, any N-S oriented segment (which would be the
favored orientation given the N-S orientation of the sfc
front/lifting mechanism) would bring with it a strong/damaging
wind threat. This activity could be fairly widespread in
nature, although the best potential for strong/damaging winds
will be near/S of I-71 where the best LL thermodynamic field
will become established. One of more linear clusters should
develop by 21z near the OH/IN state line before racing to the
E through the evening hours, eventually exiting the local area
by 03z. Do feel that the SLGHT risk from SPC is well-warranted
and will continue mention in HWO.

 

[Chinook]

I wonder if tonight will be another underperforming Missouri enhanced risk, as two Missouri enhanced risks have busted, although severe reports have been numerous in other places.

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm 2% tor area extended back to Norman for tonight 

[Iceresistance]

There was literally 2-inch hail in Maine yesterday

[snowlover2]

ILN has an insanely long near term disco in the AFD.

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few SHRA are already beginning to sprout across the far srn
stretches of the ILN FA as of this writing, with this activity
gradually expanding in coverage to the NE through daybreak
before the main batch of SHRA/TSRA arrives through the morning
into early afternoon.

From a general pattern perspective, the evolution of the system
through the OH Vly and Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours
is going to be a rather atypical setup/evolution for the region
for mid August, with a pronounced deep/strong system migrating E
through Tuesday morning. With this, expect that anomalously
strong deep-layer wind fields and strong forcing will
overspread the OH Vly through the day today. With the approach
of the midlevel low, increasing midlevel flow will overspread
the region from the W, with a unseasonably robust LLJ nosing to
the ENE from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the srn OH Vly by mid
morning. H8/H9 wind fields will be 25-35 kts at ILN by late
morning, which will be near the top-end of recorded H8/H9 flow
for mid August, per sounding climatology. This will coincide
with 95th+ percentile PWATs, too. Resulting midlevel mass and
moisture convergence will be impressive, especially by mid
August standards.

And with this strong forcing and ample moisture, the convective
cluster currently residing in far SE MO into srn IL will
survive, at least in some capacity, into the ILN FA through the
course of the morning. These expanding clusters of SHRA/TSRA
will move into the Tri-State/EC IN by mid morning before
tracking further to the NE through much of the remainder of the
local area by noontime. This activity, while it will be
progressive in nature (owing to the strengthening steering-
layer flow), will coincide with tremendous moisture flux into
the region as well, with PWATs nearing or exceeding 2" locally
(~200% seasonal norms). So while the activity will be
progressive, rain rates will be quite efficient due to the
strong/broad forcing amidst a saturating profile. And as such,
the AM/early PM activity will pose mainly a heavy rain/localized
flooding threat, especially should convective rates be
maintained for any extended period of time over one area. While
this will possible just about anywhere, it will be /most/
favored near/S of I-70 through late morning, where many areas
could see a very quick inch + of rain.

Beyond early afternoon, convective evolution still remains
murky. Following the early day "batch" of SHRA/TSRA, focus will
shift back to the W (both near the Tri-State and to the W of the
immediate area in ern/NE IL where the center of a broad area of
low pressure will be positioned). Although the LL and midlevel
wind fields are impressive, the broad nature of the sfc low
itself may create somewhat weaker sfc winds than would otherwise
be expected in this type of setup. The evolution and shape of
the sfc pressure pattern will be incredibly important as we
progress into the late afternoon/evening as any more focused
sfc low center would act to not only enhance sfc flow on the
mesoscale, but could act to back sfc flow to more southerly
(opposed to SW) immediately ahead of the low itself. This could
yield a /very brief/ conditional tornado threat, particularly
in EC IN and WC OH by this evening should things evolve in such
a manner. Elsewhere, this will come into play in terms of
expected threats as convection redevelops back to the W in the
Tri-State past mid afternoon in a strongly-forced environment.

What remains relatively lacking in all of this are two separate
but equally- important things. 1) With the rather diffuse sfc
pressure pattern in place, with one or more (convectively-
generated) low centers, the sfc flow may become quite veered
(predominantly SW) even ahead of the front, meaning that,
despite the strong forcing, LL directional convergence will be
/somewhat/ weaker. This may also contribute to less directional
shear in the lowest 1km. And 2) perhaps more importantly,
uncertainties exist in just how much we are able to destabilize
again in the wake of early day convection. Today has all the
tell-tale signs of being a very "grungy" day with struggling
destabilization efforts in the wake of widespread early-day
activity. Moreover, given the strong forcing and ample deep-
layer moisture, it won`t take much to reinitiate SCT to
numerous weaker updrafts/cells immediately in the wake of the
larger complex, even before the arrival of the main feature in
the early evening. We have seen this evolution play out time and
time again where the instby is not able to recover quite enough
to materialize a widespread severe threat after morning
activity. And there are some indications that we may repeat this
scenario yet again today (although for a slightly different
reason), especially if activity keeps regenerating nonstop,
further hindering destabilization efforts prior to the
prefrontal trof arrival this evening. So with the expected
widespread cloud cover (courtesy of the tremendously-saturated
profile), the influx of better instby aided by the
aforementioned strong LL/ML flow fields still remains somewhat
in question. The best theta-e advection /back/ into the ILN FA
from the SW should occur late afternoon into early evening,
helping replenish /some/ of the instby that was scoured out by
earlier activity, particularly in SE IN and near/S of the OH
Rvr. This better instby potential in these areas is collocated
with the SLGHT risk on the SWODY1, which is well-warranted.

So with all of this said, airmass destabilization remains the
primary limiting factor today, meaning that there are some
uncertainties regarding whether more than an isolated
strong/damaging wind risk can develop. At this juncture, the
constant regeneration of convection in a widespread but
scattered fashion may inhibit anything more than just a very
isolated strong/severe storm. However, convection by late
afternoon/early evening amidst large-scale ascent and
unseasonably strong vertical shear will support storm
organization. With the LL bulk shear vector at about 260 degrees
at ~30kts, any N-S oriented segment (which would be the favored
orientation given the N-S orientation of the sfc trof/lifting
mechanism) would bring with it a slightly better strong/damaging
wind threat. This activity could be fairly widespread in
nature, although the best potential for strong/damaging winds
will be near/S of I-71 where the best LL thermodynamic field
will become established. A conditional brief tornado threat is
possible just about anywhere, but is /most/ likely to evolve in
either 1) early evening in EC IN or WC OH or the Miami Valley
/if/ sufficient destabilization can occur in these areas (which
remains in doubt), or 2) along the NE-advancing theta-e/instby
gradient during the middle of the afternoon (~18z-21z), perhaps
near an axis from Boone Co, KY to Ross Co, OH where LL helicity
may be slightly/briefly enhanced with sfc winds a bit more
backed along the pivoting instby gradient. Regardless, several
linear clusters should develop past 21z near the OH/IN state
line before racing to the E through the evening hours,
eventually exiting the local area beyond 03z.

 

[snowlover2]

Pouring buckets here right now. 

[Chinook]

23 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Hmm 2% tor area extended back to Norman for tonight 

It looks like the enhanced outlook should have been back toward OKC and Tulsa and there were about 10 reports in Missouri.

[Hassaywx1223]

On 8/12/2023 at 4:53 PM, Neoncyclone said:

Got a pretty significant-looking supercell in OH, velocity has looked better organized from the last few scans. Looks like a very populated region. 

Never got to upload these to here it was very organized had a funnel and all I was chasing it as I live in struthers so it was 5 Miles south of my home. It was one step away from producing most legit supercell we’ve had around here in 15 years