StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Impressive deep-layer shear for early August later this afternoon/evening in northwestern Texas Panhandle. You think el Nino is driving this increased shear this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: You think el Nino is driving this increased shear this summer? You can never solely blame something like this on one factor, but IMO it's played some role. The US shattered the previous record for summer (JJA) >2" hail reports, and we only needed June and July to do it. The old record? Summer 2009... also a year where we were transitioning from a Nina to a Nino. Obviously there's more to it than ENSO state but it's gotta be playing in to it. Btw, I bring up >2" hail because, historically, the vast majority of hail that large come from supercells. More than just shear and instability goes into producing hail that large, but getting enough shear for supercells in the summer can be a challenge. Edited August 5, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) Tornado driven slight risk for central and southern Indiana now. IL into IN... An MCV now moving across MO will continue east across IL today, reaching IN by late afternoon. Wind fields will be locally enhanced by this system, resulting in a small area of supercell potential, perhaps with isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk will be conditional on the instability plume and possible precipitation contamination. Even so, mid 70s F dewpoints will tend to counteract cooling effects, with low-level turning of winds with height near the MCV favoring rotation within the stronger storms. Severe storms are most likely after about 20Z over eastern IL, extending into central and southern IN through early evening. Models typically have a difficult time providing proper low-level shear resolution this far in advance with prominent MCVs. Edited August 5, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tornado driven slight risk for central and southern Indiana now. I believe that tornado-driven slight stems from the same MCV that produced tornadoes in Missouri about 6-8 hours ago. The same one that's in extreme NE MO right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 5, 2023 Hatched hail/wind here in the TX/OK Panhandles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I believe that tornado-driven slight stems from the same MCV that produced tornadoes in Missouri about 6-8 hours ago. The same one that's in extreme NE MO right now. Right. I'm going to watching this closely as this is forecasted to go right over me. Should be fun ⛈️ 🌪 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 MCV radar presentation over southern Illinois best I’ve ever seen even had an eye like feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) Rare August enhanced risk is up for N OK today for what should be a decent MCS this evening/overnight. This could get interesting There's a lot of morning convection though so I'm a little skeptical but we'll see Edited August 5, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Gerb131 said: MCV radar presentation over southern Illinois best I’ve ever seen even had an eye like feature The overnight discussion from LOT actually mentioned that it had some tropical characteristics. Upper-air plots and soundings indicate that the wave has gained a loosely warm-core response in the lower half of the troposphere, with low- level winds near the center of the low reaching as high as 50 mph in convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Very unfortunate that there's a 5% here in IL/IN and KVWX is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) Hell of a boundary left over from overnight storms. Temps are only in the upper 70s at Noon. Looks like there'll only be intermittent clouds up there so there should be at least some destabilization. Question is if it'll be enough. Certainly setting up well aloft. 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates ahead of an approaching seasonably strong jet streak Edited August 5, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: two tornado warnings near Lafayette IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Tornado watch up for a good chunk of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 So far it's looking like the atmosphere hasn't been able to recover here. Still a few hours to go but it's not looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Alright looks like a good cell finally developed and is moving right at me. Could go severe warned soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 6, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 6, 2023 Ah, the elusive 5% hatched hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted August 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted August 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Looking like theres a fairly large tornado ongoing northwest of Taylorville, Il 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 28 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Looking like theres a fairly large tornado ongoing northwest of Taylorville, Il Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 (edited) Possible tornado 35 miles or so from me, not warned yet, does not help that KVWX is down. Edited August 7, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 New tornado watch for southern Indiana https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=IND&wwa=tornado watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 Just came back from vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Tornado Warning for Lawrence County, Indiana. This is near Bedford. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=INZ070&warncounty=INC093&firewxzone=INZ070&local_place1=4 Miles SW Bedford IN&product1=Tornado+Warning&lat=38.8135&lon=-86.5403 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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