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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


Iceresistance

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Went to Kansas City this past week and geez... really felt like summer in the Midwest. Heat index was over 110 due to dew points in the mid to upper-70s. Haven't felt that in a while. Also had some of the same awful allergies I was having in Ohio. Good to be back in Amarillo where the air temperature is only around 100 degrees with dew points around 50.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Lots of shear, plus the moisture kept up in a lot of the Plains. Some of the higher shear went pretty south, too.

I suspect it's related to the very anomalously warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It's been really impressive even for a building Nino. End result is an enhanced STJ which provides enough upper-level winds for supercells even through the summer months. 

I enjoy the warm season and all but I'm not a fan of the 80 degree temps last this long into the night. Almost 1am here and still in the mid-80s.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Pretty robust wording on the SPC outlook, especially for Sunday:

ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF   EASTERN IA THROUGH SOUTHERN WI/MI INTO MUCH OF IL/IN, NORTHERN KY,   AND WESTERN OH, AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE   REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE   SURFACE LOW TRACK, AND ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW   EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/MI INTO NORTHERN IL/IN.     THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST ON MONDAY, IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE   UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY. THE   SURFACE LOW WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.   NEVERTHELESS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,   AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY   LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE   EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE   GREATEST CONCERN ON MONDAY.  

Edited by Hoosier
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From northern Indiana 

LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

A much more active pattern evolves for the period possibly as early
as Saturday night but more likely Sun afternoon into Sunday night as
a strong trough swings into the region with deepening low pressure
helping pull in deep moisture and associated instability. Timing
challenges abound in the models resulting in a low confidence but
potentially moderate to high impact with regards to 1 or more rounds
of severe weather and/or heavy rain/flooding. A warm front will
begin to approach Sat afternoon into early Sunday that could bring a
period of heavy rain along with some severe potential depending on
timing of the front and upstream convection expected to develop.
Greatest severe potential will likely occur Sun afternoon into Sun
night ahead of main cold front with all modes of severe possible
with plenty of instability and shear in play warranting the SPC DY4
slight risk. Suffice to say, extended period of likely pops exists
in the grids Sat night into Monday given the risk of multiple rounds
of precip. Further refinement will occur in the coming days as
models hopefully come into more agreement.
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Will say though... if enough destabilization can occur... yikes. Not a good thing when you get a system reminiscent of late spring/early summer in August.

Model compare loop of GFS/Euro/NAM. Shows some clear differences between the models but they all agree on a system that is fairly atypical for August.

models-2023080400-f072.500wh.conus.gif

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Models are starting to put more emphasis on the initial disturbance on Saturday.  If that plays out, then it would probably have an impact on Sunday's threat by shifting it south (or at least taking out of play the northern areas that are currently outlooked) and maybe reduce the potential ceiling of this event.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models are starting to put more emphasis on the initial disturbance on Saturday.  If that plays out, then it would probably have an impact on Sunday's threat by shifting it south (or at least taking out of play the northern areas that are currently outlooked) and maybe reduce the potential ceiling of this event.

Looks like the euro is much slower

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