Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 29, 2023 An MCS that developed from overnight convection in the central Plains produced a swath of damaging wind from southeast Nebraska to STL and is still going. Unironically typical mid-summer stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 29, 2023 Meanwhile, Colorado may be spitting out a landspout. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 29, 2023 (edited) Textbook stuff. Notice the rotation started well before reflectivity even showed up in the lowest scan. Edited July 29, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 More reports being added from Friday. Between the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, it was a pretty big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 31, 2023 (edited) Went to Kansas City this past week and geez... really felt like summer in the Midwest. Heat index was over 110 due to dew points in the mid to upper-70s. Haven't felt that in a while. Also had some of the same awful allergies I was having in Ohio. Good to be back in Amarillo where the air temperature is only around 100 degrees with dew points around 50. Edited August 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 53 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Lots of shear, plus the moisture kept up in a lot of the Plains. Some of the higher shear went pretty south, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 strange severe weather setup tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Lots of shear, plus the moisture kept up in a lot of the Plains. Some of the higher shear went pretty south, too. I suspect it's related to the very anomalously warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It's been really impressive even for a building Nino. End result is an enhanced STJ which provides enough upper-level winds for supercells even through the summer months. I enjoy the warm season and all but I'm not a fan of the 80 degree temps last this long into the night. Almost 1am here and still in the mid-80s. Edited August 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Watching this weekend for a severe threat. Uncertainties in magnitude and corridor of greatest potential, but it could be a fairly potent setup. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 (edited) Pretty robust wording on the SPC outlook, especially for Sunday: ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA THROUGH SOUTHERN WI/MI INTO MUCH OF IL/IN, NORTHERN KY, AND WESTERN OH, AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, AND ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/MI INTO NORTHERN IL/IN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST ON MONDAY, IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. NEVERTHELESS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST CONCERN ON MONDAY. Edited August 3, 2023 by Hoosier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 3, 2023 (edited) Impressive system this weekend. My big question will be the ability to destabilize because it looks like morning clouds will be a factor. You know how that goes... 🚩 Edited August 3, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 From northern Indiana LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 336 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023 A much more active pattern evolves for the period possibly as early as Saturday night but more likely Sun afternoon into Sunday night as a strong trough swings into the region with deepening low pressure helping pull in deep moisture and associated instability. Timing challenges abound in the models resulting in a low confidence but potentially moderate to high impact with regards to 1 or more rounds of severe weather and/or heavy rain/flooding. A warm front will begin to approach Sat afternoon into early Sunday that could bring a period of heavy rain along with some severe potential depending on timing of the front and upstream convection expected to develop. Greatest severe potential will likely occur Sun afternoon into Sun night ahead of main cold front with all modes of severe possible with plenty of instability and shear in play warranting the SPC DY4 slight risk. Suffice to say, extended period of likely pops exists in the grids Sat night into Monday given the risk of multiple rounds of precip. Further refinement will occur in the coming days as models hopefully come into more agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 4, 2023 (edited) Will say though... if enough destabilization can occur... yikes. Not a good thing when you get a system reminiscent of late spring/early summer in August. Model compare loop of GFS/Euro/NAM. Shows some clear differences between the models but they all agree on a system that is fairly atypical for August. Edited August 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Uh oh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 The prospect of a big severe event in my neck of the woods on Sunday is interesting and all, but let us not forget it is August in the Midwest. We have a magical forcefield that downtrends all severe weather events in this area this time of year 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Saturday could interesting with the mcv. Sunday looks conditionally significant severe The jet stream is very active. Could be more severe weather next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Models are starting to put more emphasis on the initial disturbance on Saturday. If that plays out, then it would probably have an impact on Sunday's threat by shifting it south (or at least taking out of play the northern areas that are currently outlooked) and maybe reduce the potential ceiling of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Models are starting to put more emphasis on the initial disturbance on Saturday. If that plays out, then it would probably have an impact on Sunday's threat by shifting it south (or at least taking out of play the northern areas that are currently outlooked) and maybe reduce the potential ceiling of this event. Looks like the euro is much slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Sunday not looking nearly as severe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 It seems the only place it rained is over my apartment complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Think we will need a slight risk for tornadoes central and southern Indiana tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 5, 2023 (edited) Impressive deep-layer shear for early August later this afternoon/evening in northwestern Texas Panhandle. Edited August 5, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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