June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence

[Snow____]

6 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

I can see areas rebounding to the upper 80’s with HI’s in the upper 90’s. So wouldn’t hurt to leave it. I would def drop the warnings for advisories though.

And on cue the warnings were dropped around here

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, btbucks said:

They did for around Cinci/Dayton

I just saw when I refreshed. Still going to be pretty damn uncomfortable later today and tomorrow

[btbucks]

The line seems to be dying out around Columbus but going strong to the south.

[Chinook]

Possible Tornado at Midway, Ohio, south of London

[ohioktm250]

Missed all the rain in east Miami County.  The rain broke up around us.  

[Medina]

Got hit by the severe warned blob in Mansfield. Was not severe, had next to no wind or even thunder/lightning. Lol.

[StormfanaticInd]

Instability has more than recovered!

[Snow____]

Has definitely rebounded with the temps. Not the 97 but damn it’s gross out there 

 

[Snow____]

Some storms popping off in Indy. Don’t know if that’s where storms I’m expecting are originating but my eyes are open

[snowlover2]

Might be a watch as far south as me in the near future.

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 1762
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

   Areas affected...northern Indiana into western Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290038Z - 290215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat will exist for the next
   1 to 2 hours. A greater severe weather threat exists later this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across northern Indiana in
   the last 30 minutes in a region of weak isentropic ascent along the
   frontal boundary. This storm activity is likely aided by moisture
   pooling along the front with upper 70s to near 80 dewpoints in the
   area with thunderstorms. There is enough mid-level flow on the KIWX
   VWP to support the potential for some supercells and a hail threat,
   at least initially. The greatest question will be if there is enough
   forcing in this region to support an organized severe threat in the
   next 1 to 2 hours.

   Regardless of the evolution of this early activity, a severe
   thunderstorm watch will eventually be needed across this area later
   this evening as storms to the northwest congeal into a MCS which is
   expected to move into the area with a damaging wind threat.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023

 

[Chinook]

huge area of storms developing with recent 70-90 mph winds in a few spots

 

[snowlover2]

Update in the AFD from ILN. 

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Rain-cooled air from the MCS earlier today continues to erode to the
east this evening. In fact, locations around the Tri-State have
fully recovered and have shot up to near 90 late this
afternoon/early evening. High dew points in the 70s combine to make
temperatures feel near 100 in many locations. This erosion of
cool, stable air has implications on tonight`s forecast.

For tonight, activity is expected to start picking up across
portions of western and northwestern Ohio between 9pm-12am.
These initial storms are already seen going up mainly across
northern Indiana and could a pose damaging wind and hail
threat.

For later tonight, current storms firing up along a disturbance
northwest of Chicago are expected to grow upscale and dive
toward the Ohio Valley. Given the rapid destabilization of
airmass and increasing shear, a severe risk is likely to develop
assuming the developing MCS does in fact move through the area.
Currently there does appear to be growing confidence for
storms, possibly severe, since westerly mean winds should advect
in storms developing to the west and there should be ample
instability and shear for storm/MCS maintenance. Damaging winds
would be the primary threat. Flooding concerns may also develop
especially north of I-70 since storms from this evening and
overnight may drop pockets of very heavy rainfall. Please note,
the forecast remains dynamic and subject to impactful changes on
short notice with current trends pointing toward higher chances
of an active night.

 

[snowlover2]

2 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Might be a watch as far south as me in the near future.

 

This watch should be coming out soon seeing that the line of warnings is nearing the east end of the IL watch box.

[snowlover2]

There it is.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Indiana
     Southwest Lower Michigan
     Northwest Ohio
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Saturday morning from Midnight until 500 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Multiple thunderstorm complexes will rapidly spread
   east-southeast across the region before dawn, with the greatest
   threat for damaging winds across the northern Indiana vicinity.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest
   of Grand Rapids MI to 25 miles west southwest of Muncie IN. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 560...WW 561...WW 562...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   29050.

   ...Grams

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0806...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1237 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Corrected for Flash flood 'likely' tag

Areas affected...northern/central Illinois, northern/central
Indiana, far southern Wisconsin, far eastern Iowa, far
southwestern Lower Michigan, far western Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290257Z - 290857Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to
pose a flash flood risk across the discussion area through 09Z.

Discussion...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have materialized
across the discussion area within a couple of regimes: 1) with
forward-propagating convection across northwestern Illinois and
southern Wisconsin and 2) along a synoptic front extending from
northern Illinois eastward across northern Indiana (generally from
RFD to FWA).  The storms across southern Wisconsin/northwestern
Illinois have well established cold pools/bow echoes and areas of
rain rates as high as 1-1.5 inches per hour - locally higher where
cell mergers were observed.  Meanwhile, storms from northern
Illinois into northern Indiana have shown more of a tendency to
backbuild along the front while ingesting very moist/unstable air
(2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8+ inch PW values).  Additionally, the
storms along the front were focused along an axis of appreciable
850mb convergence that remained nearly stationary, allowing for
very efficient rainfall processes and slow movement.  Spots of
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates were prompting MRMS Flash responses -
especially across northern Illinois.

The overall regime will promote several cell mergers and areas of
prolonged heavy rainfall as upstream linear MCSs migrate
east-southeastward along the front.  Areas of 3-5 inches of total
rainfall are expected - with highest totals along the
aforementioned front generally from RFD to FWA.  These areas are
also the most likely to experience multiple rounds of
precipitation associated with cells along the front and upstream
MCSs. 

Over time, CAMs and observations suggest that enough of a
southward component of motion will exist to enable somewhat faster
storm motions (due to continued upscale growth and forward
propagation) which should gradually lessen the flash flood risk
through the night.  This process will take a few hours to unfold,
however.

Cook

 

[Hoosier]

Well, that was fairly decent.  Estimating lower end severe winds here, but the duration of those gusts was pretty impressive.  And in a case of looking in the right spot at the right time, I saw a transformer blow in the western sky about halfway through the storm.  Fortunately did not lose power here.

[snowlover2]

Watch for Ohio likely coming soon.

Quote

  Mesoscale Discussion 1765
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

   Areas affected...Indiana...Ohio...Southern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563...

   Valid 290557Z - 290800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will continue for several
   more hours across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. The
   threat is also expected to impact northwestern Ohio within an hour
   or so. If convective trends suggest that the severe threat will
   continue into central Ohio, a new watch will need to be considered
   to the southeast of the current watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Indianapolis
   shows a large-scale bowing line segment from northwest Indiana
   extending southwestward into eastern Illinois. The line is moving
   east-southeastward at near 40 knots, along the northern edge of a
   pocket of moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
   2000 to 2500 J/kg range within this pocket. The instability,
   combined with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough,
   evident on water vapor imagery, will be favorable for continued
   severe storm development over the next few hours. Wind damage will
   be the primary threat, although hail will also be possible with the
   stronger cores. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected from
   northeast Indiana into west-central Ohio. A hail threat will also
   exist along a wing of warm advection associated with convection in
   southeast lower Michigan.

   ..Broyles.. 07/29/2023

 

[Medina]

WOW! Finally got a good storm in Mansfield. Probably the best night time storm I've seen in a decade. Nonstop CTG lightning and as it got further away the cloud structure was very beautiful,.

 

Thank god it didn't get a warning, or it would have died immediately. 🤣

[Hoosier]

Yeah, these are/were prolific lightning producers.

[Medina]

[Snow____]

Looks like the fun is about to roll in. Hoping it continues to build a little more south so I can get in on the good. Dayton areas about to take a hit.

[Snow____]

Funny that the best part of the storm is going slide south of me 😂😂. Just looking forward to maybe see some lightning as I try and fall back asleep

[Snow____]

The line is really falling apart right at my doorstep. I just can’t buy a good storm this year for some reason. Oh well. I hope the sound of thunder can rock me to sleep. 
 

Edit: As I typed this the warnings were cancelled as the storms are weakening.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Snow____

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pattern looks pretty active for my area after Thursday on Euro/GFS/GEFS/EPS when the ridge gets pushed west from eastern troughing. Multiple shortwaves in northwest flow aloft. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

I got thunder and heavy rain at 1:40-1:50AM and then 4:00AM. I even saw a bolt hit the ground at 4:00 AM. The thunder kept rumbling I believe for some time after 4:00AM. North Toledo is probably a huge puddle at this point in time.