btbucks Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 A lot busier tonight than was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 1" hail with that cell. Quote Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wilmington OH 859 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0853 PM Hail 4 WNW Jefferson 39.97N 83.36W 07/23/2023 E1.00 inch Madison OH Trained Spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Slight risk added for basically the ILN CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Watch just issued here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Storm northeast Indy is very electrical. CG well away from the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Starting to think there’s a dome around here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Wednesday is starting to look like a potential severe mcs/derecho day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Snow____ said: Starting to think there’s a dome around here lol Come to Newark... Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Strong looking cell due west of me appears to be moving east. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 The lighting rods on the building in downtown Columbus are getting a work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Little rain here with a rumble or two. There's a lot of lightning with the Columbus storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 finally had one make it to Daville. good thunder and lightning no wind or hail as of yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 kid in Lancaster reports nickels or bigger trees down and flooding as of 915 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Getting a fair bit of thunder and lightning from a cell just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes are the primary forecast hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level high will continue to remain centered over NM with its influence extending across the southern U.S. A notable mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from IA to the Lower Great Lakes. An upstream disturbance will move east from southern Alberta to western Ontario. In the low levels, a weak area of surface low pressure over IA will meander east, while a stronger low develops across southern Manitoba. ...Mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes... Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in association with warm-air advection and a LLJ over the IA/MO vicinity. It remains unclear how the early day convection will evolve during the morning to peak heating timeframe. Additional storm development is possible both ahead and perhaps on the southern flank of morning convection. Regardless, a moist/destabilizing airmass downstream of this potential convection will feature dewpoints near 70 deg F in Lower MI to the low-mid 70s over IL/IN/OH. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 1500-3500 J/kg with moderate westerly mid-level flow. Some models indicate partial convective augmentation enhancing the flow fields across the southern Great Lakes. If this scenario were to occur, a risk for scattered severe gusts would increase. It is in the vicinity of a model-depicted west to east frontal zone that a supercell risk and greater bowing segment potential would be possible. This corridor is most confidently depicted near the Michigan-OH/IN border but may shift latitudinally as details change. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible along with large hail with the more intense cells. This activity will likely grow upscale as it moves across the southern Great Lakes into the Lower Great Lakes by late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Enhanced risk for me😍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 (edited) Here is one of the models (WRF-NSSL) showing a substantial severe thunderstorm risk, for Detroit/Toledo. SBCAPE will build up to over 3000 J/kg with hot and humid conditions. The upper level trough will speed up the lower level winds to over 40 knots. The GFS doesn't like the 3000 J/kg so much, but hey, what's new. Overall, many models say a higher chance for heavy rain in Michigan. Edited July 25, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Lower Michigan into northern Indiana/Ohio Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with this activity. ...Great Lakes Vicinity... A compact but potent midlevel shortwave trough will shift east from the MN/WI/IA border to western PA/NY on Wednesday. This will bring a belt of enhanced westerly mid/upper flow focused on southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. At the surface, mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast ahead of an eastward developing surface low and cold front. Meanwhile, a warm front will be draped across southern or central Lower MI. Early morning showers and cloudiness are expected across parts of the Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes vicinity. This activity will result in lingering boundary-layer inhibition until afternoon when stronger large-scale ascent and continued warm advection erode capping. By mid/late afternoon, a tongue of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support vigorous thunderstorm development near the surface low/triple point across southwest Lower MI and northern IN. Effective shear magnitudes near 35+ kt will support initial supercells. As convection develops eastward through the afternoon/evening some upscale development is possible given only modest directional shear and moderate/strong deep-layer westerly flow. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates amid strong instability will support damaging gust potential, while a more isolated hail risk will accompany any more discrete convection. Within the warm frontal zone and near the surface low, backed low-level flow will maximize low-level shear and forecast soundings indicate enlarged, favorably curved hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible near this zone across southern Lower MI into far northern IN/OH. The severe risk is expected to remain relatively confined to portions of Lower MI into northern IN/OH as any morning convection further west is expected to be weak/sub-severe and stronger forcing will remain focused further north across the Great Lakes. As a result the western and southern periphery of the Marginal and Slight risk areas have been trimmed across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity compared to the previous Day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 These rim of fire situations can be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 This HRRR run shows a system that could bring dozens of severe wind reports to mid-Michigan. It is much less interesting down in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 ILN sounds concerned about a strong MCS on Friday night/Saturday morning. Quote The expansive subtropical ridge then begins to buckle Friday night/Saturday as shortwave energy and height falls spread through the nern CONUS. This could potentially be an active period of storms for the Ohio Valley, and there are signals in CIPS analogs and experimental machine learning guidance probabilities of previous such patterns yielding a stronger/longer lived MCS on the leading edge of the height falls. Certainly seeing this potential in ECMWF EPS/ GFS GEFS members QPF footprints for Friday night/Saturday morning somewhere in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley. Confidence is low given the myriad of solutions, but the backdrop of height falls and shortwave energy impinging on such a warm and very unstable airmass is something to watch. It is noted that forecast soundings Friday night show considerable warmth aloft /capping/ that may come into play, which lends further uncertainties on convective coverage and impacts. But this period needs watched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 These are very high dew points measured by some mesonet stations. It feels like a tropical island out there with some windy conditions The 76 dew point is on the chart, so that's quite high. According to my own memory, 76 was the highest that was ever measured at KTOL. SPC Mesoanalysis says 3000 J/kg of CAPE so there's no reason the showers/storms can't intensify soon into Ohio, including south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 (edited) God the storms look so lame again, Ohio just can't win. Enhanced risk is the biggest bear flag for storms w/ Ohio. Edited July 26, 2023 by Medina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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