Iceresistance Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 What is with the HRRR for tomorrow? There should be a Slight/Enhanced risk for Oklahoma for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Tornado warnings already up along the AL/GA border, and this is just the first round. Gonna be a long day down there. Had a surprise severe thunderstorm here around 6am this morning so that was nice. Marginal risk for tomorrow and then slight risks for Days 3 and 4 so the next few days are looking pretty promising so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 (edited) That did not take long. Not good. Large debris ball, PDS warned now. Edited June 14, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Just now, Neoncyclone said: That did not take long. Not good. Massive debris ball on that now, wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2023 (edited) What an unusual day. Widespread 4000-5000 MUCAPE and 50-60 kts effective shear.... yikes Edited June 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Some crazy parameters down south today. Very unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 PDS watch up now, 90/90 wind probs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 From Reed's stream 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: PDS watch up now, 90/90 wind probs Worth mentioning that the PDS severe watch still has 60%/20% tornado probabilities, AL/GA is 60%/30% so the tornado threat in the PDS severe watch is just as serious. That being said the wind threat is obviously the primary threat which is why it's a severe watch rather than a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...A supercell cluster is evolving into a bow echo along the Louisiana/Arkansas border, and this cluster will likely persist across the remainder of northern Louisiana into central Mississippi through the afternoon. A derecho-producing event is probable with intense damaging wind swaths up to 90 mph. Embedded supercells will pose a threat for 1.5-3 inch diameter hail, and embedded circulations will also be capable of producing tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Monroe LA to 20 miles east of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2023 90-100 mph winds at 1000 feet above ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 large severe weather coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Classic May dryline setup tomorrow... In mid June... Fully expecting an upgrade to enhanced for W and C OK and maybe NW TX. Should be an interesting day Kinda wish I was back in Norman for this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2023 (edited) Impressive dryline on some of the models Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 RRFS needs to chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Whoa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Impressive dryline on some of the models GOM dewpoints are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2023 Don’t see a leap from day 2 slight directly to day 1 moderate very often. Crazy combination of shear and instability today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Abbeville has a tornado warning this morning they had damages yesterday storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2023 (edited) Risk categories expanded slightly southwest across the board, likely due to the dryline trending further west. Not surprised given how much rain we've had behind where the dryline is supposed to be Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 1076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Panhandle...Western/Central OK...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151849Z - 152045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes, are expected across the region this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery currently shows an expanding cumulus field from the central/eastern OK Panhandle down through the eastern TX Panhandle and into far northwest TX. Thus far, most of the cumulus within this field have a relatively flat appearance, with only a few pockets with more vertical development (i.e. over far southwest OK/far northwest TX and central OK Panhandle). Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition remains, which is verified with the appearance of the cumulus field. Continued air mass destabilization is anticipated, with the limited convective inhibition likely eroding over the next hour. This erosion of the inhibition coupled with forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, and additional mesoscale ascent related to the low-level confluence over the region, will likely result in convective initiation by 20Z (perhaps even sooner). The air mass over the region represents a rare combination of buoyancy of shear during any time of the year, but particularly mid June. Forecast sounding suggest MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg and effective bulk shear from 60 to 70 kt when storms initiate. These type of environment will result in intense supercells, capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail (3"+ in diameter), hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential may be mitigated somewhat by the higher LCLs and relatively modest low-level shear. However, given the overall character of the environment, tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2023 (edited) Amarillo radar is right on the dryline/surface trough. Southwesterlies just to the west, southeasterlies just to the east. Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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