June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence

[Iceresistance]

What is with the HRRR for tomorrow? There should be a Slight/Enhanced risk for Oklahoma for that!

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado warnings already up along the AL/GA border, and this is just the first round. Gonna be a long day down there.

Had a surprise severe thunderstorm here around 6am this morning so that was nice. Marginal risk for tomorrow and then slight risks for Days 3 and 4 so the next few days are looking pretty promising so far. 

[Neoncyclone]

[Neoncyclone]

That did not take long. Not good. Large debris ball, PDS warned now.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[ElectricStorm]

Just now, Neoncyclone said:

That did not take long. Not good.

Massive debris ball on that now, wow 

[ClicheVortex2014]

What an unusual day.

 

Widespread 4000-5000 MUCAPE and 50-60 kts effective shear.... yikes

Edited June 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Some crazy parameters down south today. Very unusual 

[ElectricStorm]

PDS watch up now, 90/90 wind probs 

[Neoncyclone]

From Reed's stream 5 minutes ago.

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

3 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

PDS watch up now, 90/90 wind probs 

Worth mentioning that the PDS severe watch still has 60%/20% tornado probabilities, AL/GA is 60%/30% so the tornado threat in the PDS severe watch is just as serious. That being said the wind threat is obviously the primary threat which is why it's a severe watch rather than a tornado watch.

[StormfanaticInd]

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

 

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 

     Extreme southeast Arkansas

     Northeast Louisiana

     Central Mississippi

 

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM

     until 800 PM CDT.

 

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

 

   * Primary threats include...

     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90

       mph likely

     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3

       inches in diameter likely

     A few tornadoes likely

 

   SUMMARY...A supercell cluster is evolving into a bow echo along the

   Louisiana/Arkansas border, and this cluster will likely persist

   across the remainder of northern Louisiana into central Mississippi

   through the afternoon. A derecho-producing event is probable with

   intense damaging wind swaths up to 90 mph. Embedded supercells will

   pose a threat for 1.5-3 inch diameter hail, and embedded

   circulations will also be capable of producing tornadoes.

 

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55

   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of

   Monroe LA to 20 miles east of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction

   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS

   WOU3).

[Neoncyclone]

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

90-100 mph winds at 1000 feet above ground

[Chinook]

large severe weather coverage

 

[ElectricStorm]

Classic May dryline setup tomorrow... In mid June... Fully expecting an upgrade to enhanced for W and C OK  and maybe NW TX. Should be an interesting day

Kinda wish I was back in Norman for this one lol. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Impressive dryline on some of the models

Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

RRFS needs to chill 

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa 

[Neoncyclone]

6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Impressive dryline on some of the models

GOM dewpoints are insane

[ClicheVortex2014]

Don’t see a leap from day 2 slight directly to day 1 moderate very often. Crazy combination of shear and instability today.

[Gerb131]

Abbeville has a tornado warning this morning they had damages yesterday storms 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Risk categories expanded slightly southwest across the board, likely due to the dryline trending further west. Not surprised given how much rain we've had behind where the dryline is supposed to be

Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

   Mesoscale Discussion 1076
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Panhandle...Western/Central
   OK...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151849Z - 152045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe
   hazards, including giant hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and
   tornadoes, are expected across the region this afternoon and
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery currently shows an expanding
   cumulus field from the central/eastern OK Panhandle down through the
   eastern TX Panhandle and into far northwest TX. Thus far, most of
   the cumulus within this field have a relatively flat appearance,
   with only a few pockets with more vertical development (i.e. over
   far southwest OK/far northwest TX and central OK Panhandle). Recent
   mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition remains, which is
   verified with the appearance of the cumulus field. 

   Continued air mass destabilization is anticipated, with the limited
   convective inhibition likely eroding over the next hour. This
   erosion of the inhibition coupled with forcing for ascent attendant
   to the approaching shortwave trough, and additional mesoscale ascent
   related to the low-level confluence over the region, will likely
   result in convective initiation by 20Z (perhaps even sooner). 

   The air mass over the region represents a rare combination of
   buoyancy of shear during any time of the year, but particularly mid
   June. Forecast sounding suggest MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg  and
   effective bulk shear from 60 to 70 kt when storms initiate. These
   type of environment will result in intense supercells, capable of
   all severe hazards, including giant hail (3"+ in diameter),
   hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential may
   be mitigated somewhat by the higher LCLs and relatively modest
   low-level shear. However, given the overall character of the
   environment, tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Amarillo radar is right on the dryline/surface trough. Southwesterlies just to the west, southeasterlies just to the east.

Edited June 15, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014