Crowbar Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Damn, we're in the enhanced risk here. Looks like I may be heading home early. There is a small line approaching from the NW - wonder if that will stabilize the atmosphere enough to knock down the severe threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) SPC Enhanced Risk area stayed the same at mid-day update for hail and wind, but they upgraded the tornado threat (5% now for NW Ohio and SE Lower Michigan). Edited July 20, 2023 by NWsnowhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 20, 2023 Moderators Share Posted July 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Current CAPE is at least 3000 for the NW half of Ohio. Wouldn’t surprise me too much if the enhanced gets expanded west and south some at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 New watch coming soon... Mesoscale Discussion 1643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Areas affected...Extreme east-central IL into central/northern IN/OH...far southern MI...northwest PA...western NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201815Z - 201945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase with time this afternoon. One or more additional watches will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...At 18 UTC, cumulus is increasing along a cold front from southwest lower MI into northwest IN, and also along a prefrontal trough from extreme east-central IL into western IN. As a well-defined midlevel shortwave trough moves across MI, confidence is high in additional storm development along the cold front this afternoon, with more scattered development possible near the prefrontal trough. Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across much of the prefrontal environment, with moderate midlevel flow supporting 40+ of effective shear, sufficient for organized clusters and a few supercells. Favorable buoyancy and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat with the initial more discrete development. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out with any sustained supercell. With time, one or more upscale growing clusters may evolve, with an increasing threat of damaging gusts. Farther east, an isolated storm that produced 1-inch hail around Erie, PA, near the lake breeze and along the leading edge of returning low-level moisture. In the short term, an additional strong storm or two may develop within this regime, with threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Storms associated with the cold front (described above) will eventually move into this area by late afternoon or evening. Given the threats described above, one or more watches will likely be needed soon. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Hmmmm... 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Hmmmm... 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Hmmmm... 👀 The one near Lafayette has a strong couplet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The one near Lafayette has a strong couplet Yeah. Been watching that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Yeah. Been watching that one. And that is weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Looks like part of the watch on the west side is in the general thunderstorm area. Risk area expansions are a given now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Enhanced stays the same but slight risk extended into E IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 God these storms are looking lame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Tornado warning south of Fort Wayne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Storms fell apart here in central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 20, 2023 Author Share Posted July 20, 2023 Oh crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Look at it under velocity, even the tornado is lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 cleveland won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Does any one else look at flight tracker when we get a line of storms like this? Planes are circling around because they can't land in CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Storms seem to be filling in along the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2023 Nasty signature just east of Dodge City. Looks like their office observed a 70 mph gust with this storm and since then the outbound velocity has folded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Multiple warnings just north of I-70 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) Definitely have some supercells north of Dayton. Edited July 20, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Might be some rotation west of North Lewisburg OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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