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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


Iceresistance

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Northern side of Marion County had one CoCoRAHS spotter get 3.58" in three days. Hopefully that's kind of representative of the area.

I appreciate your sense and knowledge of CoCoRAHS. I think it’s really important to educate the populace of proper reporting techniques! It’s pretty cool when you can look at multiple reports and gather heavy rain events that way

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Whoever does ILN's overnight Forecast Discussion needs to be my friend. LOL.

Quote
Regarding the severe weather threat: Numerous times this
summer, overnight convection has dampened the severe weather
threat during the time of the day where maximum heating would
provide the best fuel for robust updrafts and organized storms.
Given the potential for early-mid morning convective activity,
confidence for Thursday`s SPC Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is
annoyingly low for the afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, the
threat for renewed heating behind the initial round and ahead of
the cold front should not be ignored. The shortwave will
provide sufficient bulk shear (40-45 knots) supportive of
organized updrafts in storms that are able to form. If the
initial round is less widespread, the background environment
provided by the trough will support severe thunderstorms across
the whole area. The main threats are damaging winds and large
hail with tornadoes a non-zero threat. Additional confidence
should be gained in future forecasts, but the reality is,
confidence may not be significantly higher until Thursday
morning.

 

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Got up to 106 degree here yesterday which tied the daily record. But there were 20-30 mph sustained winds and dew points in the 40s... pretty much the most comfortable 106 degree day you can get.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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The HRRR sure goes nuts tomorrow. The other CAMs have some thunderstorm activity, generally going from Michigan to Ohio. The 12km NAM has 3900 J/kg here. 0-6km shear will be better than most summer days!

refcmp_uh001h.us_mw.png

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SPC introduces Day 1 enhanced risk for northern half of Ohio and portions of SE lower Michigan and western PA. Not a fan of that hatched hail risk overhead.

image.thumb.png.30abd8d88be1b1a6c6fa776420da1271.png

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image.thumb.png.674edb0f680ccac2284a6b3fb5f938c8.png

image.thumb.png.d23f8c7de9d00225adae18891061e211.png

 

Edited by NWsnowhio
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9 hours ago, Grace said:

 

The flooding was surreal for sure. I'm absolutely shocked there were zero deaths thankfully. 

Heart still breaks for all the damage your community has suffered.  

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