June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence

[snowlover2]

Guess you can call it a consolation prize, but i can see the lightning from the storm north of Greenville.

Edited June 26, 2023 by snowlover2

[Chinook]

20 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Storms in northwest Ohio look decent. May not be over just yet

Those had some frequent thunder after 10:00 but no severe weather happened. At this point, every 0.10" helps. 

831 reports/524 filtered reports is up there with some of the more active days in the last 10 years. 500 filtered reports would have been top-5 storm report days in a number of years.

[junior]

Getting some action here. Windy rain and one thunder. 😄

[snowlover2]

2 minutes ago, junior said:

Getting some action here. Windy rain and one thunder. 😄

Gotten a couple decent rumbles of thunder. Nice little storm.

[StormfanaticInd]

Later this week should be good for some severe mcs

[ClicheVortex2014]

So much for a break from severe weather around here… lasted a few days. 15% hatched wind and hail for the OK Panhandle tomorrow

[StormfanaticInd]

Got to love mcs season 

Edited June 27, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[ElectricStorm]

Another big MCS possible for Tulsa, with an enhanced risk up now. Not good timing as people are still dealing with damage from the 6/17 event. 

This might honestly be the most active June I can remember for storms in OK, just one right after another. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[StormfanaticInd]

We may go from drought to flooding in this new pattern 

[StormfanaticInd]

29 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Another big MCS possible for Tulsa, with an enhanced risk up now. Not good timing as people are still dealing with damage from the 6/17 event. 

This might honestly be the most active June I can remember for storms in OK, just one right after another. 

It's been relentless 

[StormfanaticInd]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
   A mid-level anticyclone will become less amplified across the
   Southeast on Friday and Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves
   into the central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast from
   the Southeast to the lower Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms will
   likely develop in many areas across this airmass on both afternoons.
   The most favorable area for severe storms on Friday appears to be in
   the Ohio Valley, where a mid-level speed max is forecast. A
   potential scenario is for an MCS, associated with an isolated severe
   threat, to develop in the Ohio Valley and move southeastward into
   the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon and early
   evening. On Saturday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move a bit
   further east. Convective initiation could again be favored in the
   Ohio Valley, which could pose a similar scenario to Friday. 

   A potential for severe storms may also develop further to the west
   across the central and southern Plains on Friday and Saturday.
   Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear could pose an
   isolated severe threat. At this time, model spread is relatively
   large on both Friday and Saturday, suggesting predictability is too
   low to add a severe threat area.

[NWOhioChaser]

2.5” and some nice thunderstorms have been a blessing past two days here. Garden and yard just soaked it all up. Hopefully we can get some more rain along with the incoming heat wave again to balance things out. Now comes the inevitable Great Lakes humidity train.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Was an interesting night around here

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Iceresistance]

I'm expected to reach 107°F tomorrow 🤮

[NWOhioChaser]

The wildfire smoke today is the worst it’s been in weeks. Visibility is less than 5 miles and it’s so strong I can smell it. 

You doing alright up there Canada?

[ElectricStorm]

Moderate risk coming for parts of N OK, S KS per the latest MD

[Neoncyclone]

Quote

 SPC AC 271630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
   AND FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN NE TO
   SOUTHWEST SD...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Intense supercells evolving into a narrow bowing complex appears
   likely across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma from
   late afternoon through tonight. Very large hail of 2-3 inches in
   diameter and a tornado or two should be the main threat initially,
   followed by potential for a swath of destructive wind gusts in
   excess of 80 mph.

   ...Raton Mesa to the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley...
   A stout mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored across central TX
   with a couple of ridge-riding MCSs possible around it. A plume of
   large to extreme buoyancy will become centered from southwest KS to
   the Ark-La-Miss at peak heating amid 70s surface dew points and very
   steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km atop the moist axis. A small
   elevated cluster in eastern OK may track southeast along the
   pronounced buoyancy gradient, with a possibility for surface-based
   development downstream of it along the effective front towards the
   Ark-La-Miss. The weak large-scale forcing for ascent lowers
   confidence in the overall scenario, but there is potential for
   multicell clusters to spread southeast into the Lower MS Valley
   later this afternoon. Primary threat will be scattered damaging
   winds.

   Outflow from the morning complex in OK has reinforced the baroclinic
   zone across central to southern OK, but the leading edge of 70s
   surface dew points in southwest OK will advect north into northwest
   OK by late afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development is expected
   by mid afternoon in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and storms will
   subsequently spread into southwest KS and the northern Panhandles by
   early evening. The initial storms will likely consist of a few
   supercells capable of producing very large hail of 2-3 inches in
   diameter. An increase in low-level shear this evening and increasing
   moisture with eastward extent could result in a window of
   opportunity for a tornado or two with the more discrete supercells.
   Thereafter, upscale growth into a small but particularly intense MCS
   appears probable, due to storm interactions/mergers in the very
   steep lapse rate environment and strengthening low-level jet.
   Localized swaths of destructive severe wind gusts from 80-110 mph
   will be possible into tonight across southern KS/northern OK. The
   overall threat will likely remain spatially confined owing to the
   pronounced EML/capping to its south and residual influence of this
   morning's convection, especially with eastern extent towards the
   Ozarks overnight. 

   ...Northwest KS to ND...
   In the wake of elevated morning storms associated with warm
   advection near 700 mb, low-level moisture advection and surface
   heating will contribute to stronger destabilization from northwest
   KS into southwest SD where MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should be
   common. Farther north, more modest boundary-layer moisture will
   result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Lee cyclogenesis across eastern
   CO will help sharpen the dryline by late afternoon close to the
   longitude of the CO/KS border, which should focus widely scattered
   thunderstorm development in northwest KS and western KS. Additional
   storms should develop over the Black Hills, with more isolated
   activity also possible into ND. 
    
   With a mid-level jetlet crossing the southern Rockies into the
   central High Plains, relatively long/straight hodographs will favor
   a few intense supercells capable of producing very large to giant
   hail and isolated severe wind gusts centered on western NE. Some
   clustering may occur during the evening as a southerly low-level jet
   intensifies but pronounced MLCIN and lack of instability with
   eastern extent suggest the severe threat should wane into central to
   eastern portions of NE/KS/SD. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic into eastern NY...
   A mid-level trough with embedded perturbations and an associated
   surface cold front will move slowly eastward across NY/PA and toward
   the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lapse rates, buoyancy and vertical shear
   have all been reduced compared to yesterday, in the wake of prior
   widespread convection and as the primary jet moves offshore.  Still,
   slightly cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating with
   residual moisture in cloud breaks could support isolated damaging
   winds in the strongest storms today.

   ..Grams/Kerr.. 06/27/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1754Z (12:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        

 

[Hoosier]

Cautiously optimistic about Thursday around here, though obviously plenty that could go wrong.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Cautiously optimistic about Thursday around here, though obviously plenty that could go wrong.

Yeah Thurs has a lot of potential depending on how these mcs behave which is almost impossible to predict lol

 

Explosive levels of cape still being models with decent-strong shear. Scary combo. 

Edited June 27, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[NWOhioChaser]

We’ve got some initiation on the NM/OK border now. 

[junior]

Nice little brief ring of fire setup coming up. MCS season starting 😉

Edited June 27, 2023 by junior

[Chinook]

6 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

The wildfire smoke today is the worst it’s been in weeks. Visibility is less than 5 miles and it’s so strong I can smell it. 

You doing alright up there Canada?

No, they have burning forests. Hence the 3 mile visibility at Toledo by my estimation. It was all cloudy and foggy with the smoke layer above the clouds and/or mixed to the surface. I think the Illinois people are saying that it's an AQI of 200-300, which I think is here or headed to us.

Note: I think the 2.5" of rain was located by Williams County, Ohio and adjacent areas. So good for them. This is the first year that I have been back for the whole summer, so I will see the whole growing season. I don't think the corn looks good, but it is getting taller.

Edit; HRRR says near-surface smoke density should be bad tomorrow morning here.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Chinook

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looks like a supercell north of Guymon split quickly and now we have a right mover that should stay in the Oklahoma Panhandle.