Neoncyclone Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: lets hope! its been beyond boring for the last month here lol It certainly has, even if we only get a day or two or storms here in Illinois I will be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2023 Got storms popping to my northwest that, according to mesoanalysis, have 4000-5000 sbcape/2500-3000 mlcape. Maybe more than that because it looks like there are slightly higher dew points than mesoanalysis is suggesting. Thankfully it looks like Amarillo will get spared today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2023 Whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2023 Visually satisfying loop of a couple discrete supercells trading off intensities... now just one nasty supercell warned for 2" hail/70 mph winds. Marginal risk day. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Well this surprisingly escalated. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are expected across a broad area centered over the Tennessee Valley/Mid South. Risk for locally damaging gusts and hail will also exist over the central High Plains vicinity and across the Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, and across portions of northern/northeastern Texas. A few storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will also be possible over the central and northern Nevada vicinity. ...Ohio/Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and into the southern Appalachians and central Gulf Coast region... A short-wave trough -- embedded with seasonably strong cyclonic westerly flow on the southern fringe of a Great Lakes upper low -- is forecast to shift across the Mississippi Valley into the Mid South/Southeast today. As this occurs, a cold front -- aligned roughly along the Ohio River and Ozarks region at midday -- will shift southeastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the afternoon and evening, and to the Appalachians and central Gulf Coast states by the end of the period. As daytime heating allows moderate warm-sector destabilization, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and just ahead of the boundary by early afternoon, from the mid Ohio Valley west to the Ozarks. Storms should rapidly organize into bands, supported by relatively strong westerlies (30 to 50 kt) in the 850mb to 500mb layer. With relatively fast easterly storm motion expected damaging wind gusts should become increasingly widespread through the afternoon within multiple bowing bands. Hail will also be possible, with stronger storms. Storms will continue into the evening hours, possibly evolving into a larger-scale arc/band, and shifting eastward toward the Appalachians, and southeastward across Mississippi, Alabama, and northwestern Georgia. While damaging-wind potential will likely continue through the evening over the Southeast, storms should weaken farther north as they shift into more stable conditions anticipated over the central Appalachians. ...North Texas... Ridging aloft will prevail across the southern Plains today, which will the boundary layer to remain capped through most of the day, across most of the area. However, as late-afternoon temperatures heat well into the 90s, erosion of the cap locally as a result of boundary-layer mixing should allow isolated storms to initiate -- most likely over the North Texas area. With steep lapse rates aloft supporting strong high-based CAPE, large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any sustained storm, from late afternoon through mid evening before storms diminish diurnally. ...Parts of eastern Colorado southeastward to northwestern Oklahoma... Thunderstorm development is expected across the Front Range vicinity today, as afternoon heating contributes to moderate destabilization. With moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the area, a few stronger storms will likely evolve, and shift east-southeastward toward lower elevations into the evening. Along with potential for locally damaging winds, a couple of the strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail. ...Northern and central Nevada vicinity... As an upper low drifts northward toward/into the Great Basin, afternoon destabilization atop a deep mixed layer will result in development of high-based thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong, sub-cloud evaporative effects suggest potential for a few strong wind gusts, with westward-moving storms. Storms will diminish in intensity through the evening. ..Goss/Bentley.. 06/11/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Wouldn't be surprised if the slight risk was expanded north to the I-70 corridor in SE IN/SW OH with the 0z cams and HRRR runs so far showing instability and storms reaching farther north in said area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2023 (edited) Will be tempted to head about 30 miles west later. Could be a discrete supercell that pops to my west. Got subtle forcing and a questionable cap, so not sure if anything will develop there. Doubt I'll go unless something pops in the next 2 hours. The better bet for some picture-esque supercells will be in SE CO/W OK Panhandle/NW TX Panhandle. I'm not making that drive though. Edited June 11, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 hook echo on the left side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Wow i'm under a severe thunderstorm warning now. First one in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 (edited) Tornado warning just west of me now! Quote Tornado Warning OHC109-113-112330- /O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0022.230611T2300Z-230611T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in west central Ohio... Southwestern Miami County in west central Ohio... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 700 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Englewood, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Dayton, Huber Heights, Troy, Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, West Milton, Clayton, Union, Brookville, Phillipsburg, Ginghamsburg, Phoneton, Dayton International Airport, Garland and Brandt. This includes the following Interstates... I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 22 and 31. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 63 and 69. Edited June 11, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Tighter velocity between Vandalia and Tipp City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 (edited) Nice rain and thunder here. Under a warning but storm skipped a bit over me. Tornado warning to my NW. (Im sorta in Huber now) Edited June 11, 2023 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2023 Looks like the outflow from the line is helping to enhance the tornadic rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Stay safe those North of Dayton. Haven’t been on the site in over a month due to how dreadfully boring it’s been lately.. glad to have gotten some much needed rain today though, it has been awefully dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Went for a walk and could feel the humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 eastern Tennessee supercells and multiple tornado warnings over the past hour or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2023 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Will be tempted to head about 30 miles west later. Could be a discrete supercell that pops to my west. Got subtle forcing and a questionable cap, so not sure if anything will develop there. Doubt I'll go unless something pops in the next 2 hours. The better bet for some picture-esque supercells will be in SE CO/W OK Panhandle/NW TX Panhandle. I'm not making that drive though. Maybe chasing wasn’t necessary after all. Looks like they might just come to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Will be tempted to head about 30 miles west later. Could be a discrete supercell that pops to my west. Got subtle forcing and a questionable cap, so not sure if anything will develop there. Doubt I'll go unless something pops in the next 2 hours. The better bet for some picture-esque supercells will be in SE CO/W OK Panhandle/NW TX Panhandle. I'm not making that drive though. Severe cells have blown up west of Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) Looks like both supercells will stay to my south. Don’t need more rain in SW Amarillo anyway. Edit: closest one to me is now warned for tennis ball hail. Yep, definitely fine with me. Edited June 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Storms are kind off dying out up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Look at this 65dbz and 2" hail. Last night's HRRR run(s) pretty much nailed the SE colorado supercells today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2023 (edited) Models have been suggesting that supercells will continue in the OK/northern TX Panhandles through the night and it's starting to look like that'll happen. Won't be surprised if they're still going when I wake up. They’ve got impressive shear and they’re moving into easterly surface winds that are advecting in between moisture. Edited June 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2023 7 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Models have been suggesting that supercells will continue in the OK/northern TX Panhandles through the night and it's starting to look like that'll happen. Won't be surprised if they're still going when I wake up. They’ve got impressive shear and they’re moving into easterly surface winds that are advecting in between moisture. I was right. Getting called in early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Honestly the way cams have been going an upgrade to 10% hatched just seems like the obvious choice for TX this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 Getting storms right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now